“My sixth sense tells me your brother Fredo brought a bag full of money,” Roth tells Michael at their last meeting. We know that’s just a figure of speech. We assume Fredo arrived by commercial flight because the tells Michael, “Jesus Christ, what a trip -- the whole time I'm thinkin' what if somebody knows what I got in here. Can you imagine that, huh? Two million dollars in the seat next to me in the plane?“ We figure that Roth had his pals in the Cuban government tell him when Fredo arrived—and the contents of Fredo’s suitcase. We also assume that Michael needed to signal Roth that the money was in Cuba so he could buy more time to find out who the traitor was in his family.

Uh, not so fast…

US law then (and now) prohibits Americans from taking more than $10k in cash out of the country. While US Customs didn’t scrutinize every departing citizen and his./her baggage, it’s a safe bet that Fredo would be checked out: as we saw at the Senate hearing a few months later, the FBI identified Fredo as a Corleone Family Underboss; and a Corleone traveling from Nevada to Havana would be a likely suspect to be carrying more than the legal amount of cash. Ditto Cuban customs: if they inspected Fredo’s suitcase, it and he would have been history. Michael would never have subjected his $2 million to such risks. So, I’m guessing, Michael would have arranged for Fredo to come in by charter, or some other less-conspicuous or even secret route.

So: Roth’s “six sense” was Fredo. Fredo must have told him that he’d arrived with the $2 million. And, if Michael had been alert, the moment Roth said that he knew the money was in Havana, Michael should have realized that only Fredo could have tipped him--and that Fredo was the traitor. Yet Michael didn’t acknowledge Fredo’s treachery until Fredo practically smacked him in the face with it later at the Superman show.

I guess Vito wasn’t the only Corleone who was slippin’.

I thought Sinatra brought the money to Cuba.

Oops, wrong story.

TB, I don't think it was that Michael was slipping. I think that it was a thought too horrible for him to comprehend. Poor, sweet Fredo? Fredo, who always needs taking care of? Who can't even control his wife's behavior at a party? A Judas?? And against his brother Michael, who he loves, and who loves him?

I think that Michael felt that, like Tom, Fredo was one of the few people who would never betray him. Michael was so alone in this world. Fredo was one of the few people he could trust, who he could relax with. I think that he couldn't even entertain the thought of Fredo's betrayal. You can see how painful it is to him at the Superman show. He acts as if he's taken a punch to the gut.

What SB said. Plus, there's every possibility that he did pick up on it, yet refused to believe it, until Fredo's incredibly stupid slip at the New Years Eve party.

"I made up a lot of stuff about FREDO Corleone 'cause that's what they wanted - but it was all lies, uh - everything. And I kept saying - FREDO Corleone did this and FREDO Corleone did that - uh, so I said yea sure, why not. "




Possibly because that was the moment he was given solid, absolute proof that Fredo had become involved with Roth.
(And it may very well be that Fredo himself was the ONLY one who could've provided it.)

Michael may have been suspicious of Fredo all along.
But....a) wasn't about to act on it until he was absolutely sure, and (more importantly) b) like pizzaboy says, couldn't really bring himself to believe Fredo was the traitor until there was absolutely no other possible suspect.

After viewing that 'banana daquiri' scene so many times it does appear he might be testing Fredo right there.


But then...you know all this, Turnbull. Nice way to start a discussion, though

Apple

I think its very possible that Fredo told Roth he was coming with the 2 million.

But I also think its possible that Michael could have thought that Roth was just watching Michael's comings and goings and who and when they came.

I don't agree TB. The $2 million could have moved through any number of hands any of which could have belonged to the traitor.

Apparently Michael DID in fact trust Fredo, he was the only one he would entrust with transporting the 2 million to Havana. Perhaps Roth knew this...and that's why he requested the 2 million, b/c he thought it would be the best way to get his mole (Fredo) to Havana where Roth could use him to keep tabs on his brother.

Back in the 50's there was virtually no security at airports, and it is likely that Fredo flew commercial from Vegas to Miami, and then hopped a plane from Miami to Havana. In those days there was a flight to Havana out of Miami at least every hour (people used to fly to Havana at 5 in the afternoon and return in the wee hours after partying in Cuba). Fredo could have legally carried the cash to Miami, and then taken off for Havana undetected, OR someone in Miami could easily have been bribed to let him through (for all we know Roth could have greased the trip with Michael's blessing). As for Cuban customs, I am certain they didn't care how much money anyone was bringing into the country.

Further evidence that Fredo flew commercial is that Fredo says he was worried that someone on the plane would know he had all the money. If he was flying a charter, that would not have been a problem.

My guess is that Roth's "sixth sense" was most likely someone at the Havana airport.

I tend to agree with Olivant and dt.

Plus, if Fredo was the source - and the only possible source - of that information, Roth's "sixth sense" comment would have been uncharacteristically stupid.

Thanks, that was my intention.