A question struck me while watching GFII on AMC last night. When Fredo & Michael are talking over drinks shortly upon Fredo's arrival with the $2 million, Michael tells Fredo of the plans that Michael will be assassinated on New Year's Eve.

Given the fact that we only see Michael's bodyguard while Michael is traveling in Cuba and to New York, two possibilities came to mind:

1) Michael was just testing Fredo by describing a phony plot in order to see what Fredo might do with the information. In other words, Michael may have been "keeping his enemy (Fredo) closer."

2) If there was a plot to kill Michael in Havana, how did Michael come to find this information? Who was his source - the bodyguard? It certainly wasn't Ola. I'm curious since the viewer only sees Michael's bodyguard from the time Michael leaves Tahoe until he returns to the Desert Inn.

To me, the 2nd scenario seems more likely, but also more difficult to understand.

Goombah, your first scenario is really intriguing. I've long believed that, while Fredo wasn't first on Michael's list of suspects in the Tahoe shooting, he wasn't off the list, either (as Michael said, Tom was the only one he could completely trust). I also believe that part of Michael's intent in having Fredo bring the $2 million to Havana was to test him. And you can see some of that testing in Michael's face--when Fredo asks if anyone he knows is in Havana, and when Michael "introduces" him to Johnny Ola.
But the logical answer is that Michael simply figured out the plot because the ploy was obvious. Since he knew Roth was behind the Tahoe attempt, he also knew that Roth had lured him to Havana for one purpose: to kill him in a place where he was the most powerful gringo and could count on the President to help him. So, when Michael was told that he would be driven back to his hotel after the New Year's reception "in a military car--for my 'protection' "--it wasn't hard for him to figure out that it would be a one-way ride.
BTW: I think that if Roth had had his way, he would have worked with his Cuban contacts to arrange for SIM (Batista's secret police)to attack the military car and kill everyone in it, including Michael, and make it look as if the rebels had done the deed. Then Roth could have claimed that Michael, alas, was an unfortunate victim of the revolt--caught in the crossfire.

This is the Mafia we are discussing wherein information can be obtained for money, revenge, power, etc. That Michael knew the details of the plot against him is not surprising. My question is why he told Fredo of it.

What Turnbull says.

And besides, after having worked with and been advised by his father for several years prior to Vito's death...Michael Corleone could by now easily smell an assasination plot like this one from a mile away.

The setup by Roth was just too similar to that of Barzini (with Tessio's help) some 5 years earlier.

Apple

Y'know, Olivant, I was just thinking of that very question after I posted my response above.
If, as Goombah suggested, Michael told Fredo in order to test him, you'd have to wonder what he expected. Michael and Fredo had their tete-a-tete more than 24 hours before Michael was due to be whacked. If Fredo "failed" the test, he'd have alerted Roth and/or Ola immediately, and they would have moved up their plans. So, the only way Michael would have known that Fredo betrayed him was the moment before he died.
I'm guessing that Michael confided in Fredo to impress upon him that the two of them were involved in a serious situation. The operative phrase was when Fredo asked how he could help. Michael said, "Just go along...I've already made my plans." I think that it was Michael's "test" of Fredo: He probably kept Fredo very close to him at that point, waiting to see if Fredo went off on his own, possibly to warn Roth/Ola. That may be why Michael made a point of asking Fredo where he was going during the New Year's Eve party.

By telling Fredo he knew of the assassination attempt he was simply following the maxim "keep your friends close but keep your enemies closer."

Then why did he tell fredo on the new year party "I know it was you Fredo, you broke my heart". Obviously michael was not keeping Fredo(enemy) closer by revealing the truth.

Michael just received confirmation that Fredo was the betrayer earlier that evening. While obviously having suspicions, Fredo confirmed his guilt at the "Superman" show. So it was too early for Michael to be keeping Fredo/his enemy "close" at that stage. But Fredo certainly knew he was in big trouble after receiving the "kiss of death" from Michael at midnight.

We see Michael "keeping Fredo close" when instructing Tom to reach out to Fredo and bring him back to the Tahoe compound.

Yes, very true, Goombah.
Michael took a huge risk in going to Cuba at Roth's invitation--he was stepping into the lion's mouth. But he did it to learn, for certain, who the traitor was in his family. He couldn't have rested easy otherwise.

I think Michael alway wrote Fredo off as being stupid and knew the two fo them, as brothers, were distant, and was just trying to bridge that gap. Fredo's betrayal? He didn't see it coming...

Welcome to the forum dburghardt!