We all see that he was gunned down at the Jones Beach Causeway, we all find out that Carlo Rizzi, his brother-in-law married to his sister Connie, tipped the Tataggia family off after Carlo gave another beating to Connie - Santino flew into a rage when he heard, and raced to beat the shit out of - and possibly murder - Carlo. (Truth is, according to the book, Santino didn't really know how he was gonna handle it - it depended on how bad Connie's condition was. But he wanted this straightened out once and for all, and who can blame him? Some of us have sisters, and we don't want to see them hurt by their husbands.)

What we don't know is that this all started not so much with Carlo beating up Connie, although that was the catalyst that put it into motion. An informer for the Tatagglia Family saw Santino (Sonny) beat up Carlo at Carlo's betting business in Manhattan after Sonny found out about Connie getting beat up by Carlo. It wasn't Carlo who betrayed the Corleone Family (at the time) - it was the informer who saw it, and ran to a telephone to report it. But by the time the informer got to the Top Level of the Tatagglia organization, it was too late - Sonny was already back at the mall on Long Beach, safe.

This was war-time between the Corleones and the Tatagglias, and if they had spotted or caught Sonny in the city, Sonny would have been popped. After the Tatagglias found out from the informer that Sonny threatened to kill Carlo if Carlo beat up Connie again, they knew they had to talk to Carlo, to play against Carlo's emotions, his humiliation not only against getting dehumanized by Sonny in the street (Carlo did not fight back), but the humiliation he felt at his position within the Corleone Family. He wasn't getting the respect he felt he deserved now that he was married to the Corleone daughter - so the Tatagglia's played it up, offered Carlo a "better life" away from the Corleone's. Carlo was dumb enough to think they were telling the truth, so Carlo set it all up. He beat up Connie, he went to his betting business in Manhattan, and made a phone call. He knew that Connie would call Sonny, and he also knew Sonny would come for him.

...but if it hadn't been for the informer, Carlo would not have been a catalyst to the death of Santino Corleone. Does that mean that he didn't deserve to die by the hand of Michael Corleone, years later? I say - he deserved to die. Hell yeah.

But your heart really goes out to Santino, if you read the passage from the book - the moment before he gets shot to smithereens:

And then in the fraction of a second before anything actually happened, Santino Corleone knew he was a dead man. And in that moment his mind was lucid, drained of all violence, as if the hidden fear finally real and present had purified him.

Truth is, when Connie made the call to the Corleone mall, she meant to speak with Tom Hagen, not Sonny. She knew Sonny would kill Carlo, and she didn't want that. She only wanted to be picked up and brought home. But, she got Sonny on the phone instead.

And the rest is history.

The Godfather (Vito) would have had a helluva time picking his heir if Santino had not been gunned down. Michael had returned, and with Santino around (the natural heir to becoming Don, although it is not an inherited position by any means) - Vito Corleone would have had to break his and Sonny's heart when he picked Michael to become Don of the Corleone Empire.

With Santino's big heart, I doubt he would have conspired to have Michael killed after Vito's death. The other way around? Look out, Santino.

Nice analysis and mostly accurate but keep in mind that it was Barzini who approached Carlo, not Tattaglia.

If Sonny had somehow survived I think Michael would have become a mostly legitimate but rather dangerous businessman or political leader. I don't see any bad blood arising between Sonny and Michael to the extent that it did between Fredo and Michael because I don't see either Sonny or Mike feeling stepped over.

You don't think Sonny would have felt "stepped over" if Michael became Don?

Michael would not have become Don...he would have been a Governor or Senator. Another Pezzonovante!

Don't bet on it. Vito thought Santino "a bad Don," and he had feelings about Michael's strong presence and quiet mannerisms. Michael was Vito's favorite, and heir apparent. That's what I think would have happened, if history had taken a turn.

You may be right, BM. In that case, I think Santino would have been salty.

Yes. Basically I agree with Mark here. And since you are a member of respect I will tell you my reasons..

The Don was of two minds regarding Michael. Michael was so intelligent and such a man of force that he would have been an excellent politician, businessman or other such person who could have legitimized the Corleone name and empire much the way the Kennedys went from small time bar owners/bootleggers etc to upper crust "American royalty" in a little over 2 generations. The Don obviously recognized that Michael's gifts were also applicable to criminal endeavors but I honestly don't believe those were his first plans for Michael.

So if Sonny lives, Michael does not inherit the criminal empire.

Also Michael entered his father's world out of a misguided (?) sense of honor and love. The murders of his older brother and his wife made it clear to him that he couldn't leave. If Sonny lives, Michael may be content to be something between a counselor and business advisor to Sonny. He is not afraid of Sonny but is also not jealous of him.
Fredo on the other hand seems to be somewhat submissive to both of his brothers and later had the added resentment of having to take orders from his kid brother. As Sonny was the oldest to the extent that Michael was in any sort of secondary role to Sonny (which wasn't much) I don't see him brooding over it. He feels free to kid Sonny and disagree with him.

If Sonny lived I think the Don would have given Sonny the more openly criminal enterprises but much of the white-collar stuff, the legitimate businesses, the political front roles would have gone to Michael-Joe college war hero with the Anglo wife. Michael would have wound up running the casinos but also other things like shipping lines, banks, food services, sports teams, real estate, all legitimate businesses that provide a huge amount of capital, buy lots of friends and can launder oodles of cash from bookmaking, gambling and extortion.

Is anyone familiar with Prizzi's Honor? In some respects it's a satire of The Godfather. But in that story the two sons of the Don have very different roles. The older one is more violent, with a bad temper and has the formal role of boss. The younger one is the business leader, is somewhat de-Italianized, and is the public face of the family. He makes so much money that his older brother sometimes wonders just who's running things. I think that's what would have happened for Sonny and Michael had Sonny survived.

Vito's words and deeds show that he did not want Michael to be Don. Even if you don't buy's Vito's statements to Michael that he "never wanted this" for him, his reaction when he hears that Michael killed Sollozzo and McCluskey makes clear his feelings on Michael's association with the Family.

I think Vito felt that he could train Sonny, over time, to be a Don, especially with Tom's reasonableness as a counterweight to Sonny's temper.

I've posted before that I believe Vito's plan was that Michael, as senator or governor, would work toward legalizing gambling, either nationwide or in New York. The Corleones' dominant position in illegal gaming would thus be fungible to legalized gambling. Vito would channel his labor support to Michael so that he could use it to reward other politicians for supporting his pro-gambling line. Sonny would head the (dwindling) illegal part of the family and be muscle for Michael.

But, would Sonny accept that role? An intriguing plot could be made out of a conflict between Sonny and Michael.

TB, you're on the right track. There's nothing in the novel or film to indicate that Vito had anyone else in mind to succeed him except Sonny. His reference to Sonny as a bad don came after Sonny's death and his observance of Sonny in the role of Don.

Yes, it's clear. Vito wanted Michael in positions of legitimate power to either assist the Corleones with their illegal empire or to assist the Corleones with a transition to a legitimate empire.

Don Vito never wanted "this" for Michael, and true - he did say to Michael that he had wanted him to maybe be a Senator or a Governor, said it to him as he was grooming him to take over the Corleone Empire after Sonny's death.

But the Don had reservation about Santino as Don, that can never be denied. He was constantly disappointed by his inattentiveness (ala the Bonasarra scene in the beginning -Sonny had resigned himself to gazing out the window) and his skirt-chasing. I'm not sure the Don felt secure with Santino taking over once Vito decided to retire. He may have felt he had no choice but to try and recruit Michael, despite his desire to see Michael do something better with his life.

Interesting theory, TB. You're saying that Sonny might not be any happier than Joey Zasa was about Michael becoming "respectable," and getting a "pin from the Pope."

I'll be honest. I don't think Sonny could have ever been prompted into any type of physical showdown with any of his brothers. Smacking each other around as kids is one thing. Anyone who grew up with brothers (myself included) has been through that. But I think Sonny's compassionate and family oriented side would have precluded him from getting into a showdown with Michael. He did have a bit of a split personality, and the familial side of that personality seemed pretty decent to me.

As far as Fredo: He was younger than Sonny, and wouldn't have felt "stepped over" had Sonny survived. His resentment towards Michael stemmed solely from the fact that Michael was the younger brother.

I agree with that absolutely.

Thanks. I've been meaning to ask, is Buttmunker a family name?

It's about as "family-orientated" as Pizzaboy.
It's a self-titled affiliation to the Beavis & Butt-head Family.

I found that part of the story a little unbelievable.
- How could Barzini know that Conny would call Sonny? She hadn't called him before in such circumstances.
- How could they know that Sonny came without body guards?
- If they'd say, we're going to try it a couple of times - Should Carlo beat his wife three or four times until Barzini's improbable plan worked out?

I think it was all luck -----------and a great deal of patience. Barzini's people may have known that Sonny preferred the Jones Beach Causeway because there was less traffic there (that was true in the book), so what harm was there to keep a few button-men around that area on the off-chance that Sonny appeared, body-guards or no.

I think they went for the overkill not only to make sure Sonny was dead meat but to ensure that any bodyguards would be as well.

With the attempt on Vito, two guys with six-shooters rush the job and Vito survives. For Sonny, Barzini takes no chances and every button man in the tri-state area is dispatched to ensure the job is done right.

Well, the film Lilo went overboard on a few things. In the novel, two shooters with pistols murdered Sonny.

I would be very interested in seeing this alternate storyline to be made into a movie.

If you read the novel, within the first chapter Puzo describes the personaility traits of all the brothers. Later he describes what would be the brother's individual reactions to something Vito said.

Reading the novel before or after tremendously helps someone understand the film.

You bet. We also have Arthur Penn to thank for the Sonny death scene.

In the film Sonny says that Mike will be picked up in front of Dempsey's in exactly 1.5 hours. Would that have been enough time for men to transit from Long Island to the Bronx restaurant to plant the weapon in the bathroom? What do you think New Yorkers?

Also, wouldn't Sollozzo already have the place staked out just as a precaution which might make it a challenge for a hitman to walk in and plant the gun?

I think they would have used someone already on the ground in the neighborhood to arrange the planting of the gun. I think they would have explained that either the gun was there that night or he wouldn't be there tomorrow.

As far as planting the gun, whoever got the assignment would have been someone Sollozzo's people didn't know or wouldn't notice-maybe a loan shark victim who was given the chance to wipe the slate clean or an associate looking to move up or one of the lower ranking soldiers that couldn't be trusted to actually do the killing but was unknown to Sollozzo.

Sonny says, he wants "somebody good, and I mean very good" to plant the gun, which means, that person must be absolutely loyal. On the other hand it can't be a top hitman, because Tattaglia's or Sollozzo's people could recognise him. Maybe someone who's doing just some special tasks, like spying, planting guns, bombs, etc...

Also, Mike is a native New Yorker. What bridge are they on as they move in the direction of New Jersey? Wouldn't Mike know that New Jersey was their destination as soon as they drive in the direction of that bridge, so he wouldn't need to be alerted to that fact by a To New Jersey sign (Of course, the sign is there for the audience)?

Tess and Clem were at the Mall, but their troops were all over New York City. An hour and a half would have been plenty of time for one of them to plant the gun.

There's only one bridge that goes from Manhatan to NJ--the George Washington Bridge.

Well, getting back to the main thread, Barzini had to figure on alot of things happening as planned to be successful. For one, Connie's call. Connie may have not called. She might have waited until the next day. Barzini couldn't know that Sonny would even be informed about what happened or that he would react the way he did. He wouldn't expect Sonny to travel to NY alone without bodyguards, right?

Maybe it was all worth a try anyway. And what made them think that Vito would just postpone his vengeance until years later?

I skipped over a lot, so this may have been addressed, but Vito wanted Mike in charge of the family, but wanted the family business to become legit. So picking between Sonny and Michael would have been to do that -- not head the family in mafia dealings. Vito made that pretty clear.