If Roth was so eager to kill Michael, wouldn't he have so many opportunities to do it? He could have easily hire a hitman to take him out on the roads in Cuba.

Roth wanted the $2 million. Also, he had to secure his preeminence in the OC world. Thus, he had to deflect as much as possible any suspicion of his role in Michael's murder.

But why try to kill Michael in the beginning at his house with the drapes if the 2 million deal wasn't in place. Killing Michael would put Fredo and Tom in charge of the family making it easier for Roth to take over.

The deal in Cuba hadn't matured yet when Roth tried to kill Michael. If Roth could get rid of Micahel at that point, then that would obviate the need for ther $2 million. Since Micahel survived, why not get some money outof him before killing him.

ah i see..this is a dumb question, but why did Roth want to kill Michael for anyways? To take over his shares in the casinos or was it because Michael was to ambitious and wanted to take over everythng?

Dons are usually never satisfied with what they have. Roth's only serious rival and threat was Michael.

Michael had been horning in on Roth's gaming empire ever since he returned from Sicily, even killing Roth's best friend, Moe Green. Michael was making it clear that there was no room for Roth in his plans. So, Roth’s goal was to eliminate Michael.

His strategy was to play on Michael’s obsession with becoming legitimate by pretending that Michael was his heir-apparent. Roth doled out bits and pieces of his empire to Michael, and promised more—all the while buying time for an opportunity to have him killed. The Havana deal would make Michael king of legalized gambling in the Western Hemisphere. Roth had tantalized Michael with the promise of his crown jewel prior to the Tahoe shooting. I’m guessing that Roth also told Michael, before the shooting, that he’d have to make a big payoff to Batista, the Cuban dictator.

He may have mentioned $2 million, or he may not have put a price on it at that time. Getting the money wasn’t Roth’s primary goal at that point. His goal was to buy time for an opportunity to whack Michael. The money for bribing Batista was a means for Roth to add credibility to his Havana-deal story: Michael would expect that a big bribe would be needed for him to get Batista’s permission. Michael may even have suspected that Roth would keep some or all of the money. But, so what? $2 million was a small price for him to pay to achieve total legitimacy.

Anthony’s party provided Roth with his golden opportunity to have Michael whacked. Roth no doubt was invited, but begged off, claiming ill health. But he knew that Frank Pentangeli would be there, contentious over Michael’s favoring of Roth and the Rosato brothers over him. So Frankie would have the perfect motivation for killing Michael, and would make the perfect fall guy for the crime. Roth would have to forego the $2 million—but (in a parallel with Michael), so what? $2 million was a small price to forego to simultaneously get rid of Michael and Frankie, and put his own guys (the Rosato Brothers) in charge of New York.

The failure of the Tahoe assassination attempt was a setback for Roth. But he had Plan B: Lure Michael to Cuba, where Roth was the most powerful gringo, and have his pals in the Batista government squash him like a bug. He could have had Michael whacked as soon as he stepped off the plane in Havana. Why didn't he? Two reasons.

First, Roth needed to provide himself with an alibi--"plausible deniability" for Michael's death. The birthday party was part of the alibi. "What, me want Michael dead?? Why, he was like a son to me! I had just given him the keys to my kingdom. Just ask any of those thugs who heard me say so at my birthday party." And the assassination would have been perfect: Michael would be taken back to his hotel in a government car after the Presidential party. No doubt his pals in SIM, Batista's secret service, would have ambushed the car and killed everyone with military weapons, making it look like Castro's forces did it and poor Michael was "collateral damage."

Second, and more important, Roth also got greedy for the $2 million: he saw a chance not only to kill Michael, but also to make him pay for his own assassination.

In GFI (the novel, anyway) it was stated that Sollozzo could not have attempted Vito's murder without the backing of at least one of the families. So, could Roth have murdered Michael without the backing of at least one of the families? Afterall, I don't buy (my apologies TB) that Roth could have avoided implication in Michael's murder in Cuba or, for that matter, his attempted murder in Tahoe.

With respect, Oli, I think comparing Sol/Vito to Roth/Michael is apples and . Sol needed Tattaglia's (and Barzini's) backing to get into his business. It followed that he needed their permission to whack Vito because a war would likely ensue. Sol was counting on Vito dying, and Sonny going along with his deal. That's probably how he sold it to Tatt and Barz.

Michael, on the other hand, was sitting "high up in the Sierra mountains" far from New York. Presumably no one other than Roth and Ola (and perhaps Rocco and Neri) knew about the Havana deal. Roth would be taking a risk in having Pentangeli killed and installing the Rosatos in his place. But if, according to his plan, Michael was assassinated in Cuba, the Corleones would be in disarray. Fredo would be the heir-presumptive, and Tom probably would go along with him out of loyalty to the family. But I can't see Rocco, and especially Neri, accepting Fredo as the new Don. They'd be too busy fighting each other to come after Roth. And, even if they did, Roth at his birthday party clevery promised pieces of his empire to other gangsters, which would broaden the fight.

The Rosatos would have to deal with the other NYC Dons and whatever reaction they'd have to Pentangeli's murder. But, I think Roth wouldn't care much. His objective was to get rid of Michael and Pentangeli, not to run or have a say in the former "olive oil business."

TB, it's just that it seems that there is little in OC that remain secret, if at all, for any length of time. Given that I think the Dons would have looked upon Roth's murder of one of them as an affront to all of them (since he was not one of them), that Roth would have had to have support from at least one of the dons.