I was wondering how it was Michael happened to have a plane waiting to take him to Miami at the moment Castro took over, and it came to me that this was all a part of a plan. The bodyguard was to kill Roth and be at the air field at a certain time. Michael would have slipped the "safe ride home" Batista was going to offer him and also gone to the air field. If the body guard wasn't there Michael would have left and safely arrived in Miami.

DT, I don't think that either Michael or Batista anticipated the rapidity with which Castro would move on and take Havana. Given that Michael expected his plan to murder Roth to succeed, part of that plan would be to then promptly depart Cuba; there was no other reason for him to stay there.

DT, I don't think that either Michael or Batista anticipated the rapidity with which Castro would move on and take Havana. Given that Michael expected his plan to murder Roth to succeed, part of that plan would be to then promptly depart Cuba; there was no other reason for him to stay there.

I agree with Oli. While Michael (and a lot of others) anticipated that Batista was on the way out, he could not have anticipated that Batista would abdicate on the night he planned to have Roth killed. Michael needed to show himself at the Presidential party to establish an alibi while the bodyguard killed Roth. Then he needed to get out of Havana as quickly as possible to avoid being arrested or questioned in Roth's death.

As for the bodyguard: he probably had an agreement with Michael to be at the airfield no later than a specified time; if he wasn't there, the plane would take off without him.

So we all agree the plane was pre-planned so Michael could get out of Cuba after he killed Roth, and Castro's takepover was not anticipated that night. I liked the way the movie showed Michael and Geary casually walking out of Batista's speech, while the rest of the crowd stayed for his toast.

One question:

Earlier that day Michael told Fredo everything he knew about Roth, and how there was an assasssination plan. Why did he not mention the plane to Fredo at that time?

Well DT, I lump that question in with why Michael told Fredo anything about his planned murder of Roth. Suspicions aside, there was no reason for Fredo to be told anything about it. So, I don't know why he didn't tell Fredo about the plane.

But wait a minute. Michael's departure from the palace was prompted by what he determined to be a deteriorating military situation and not by Roth's death of which Michael had no confirmation. So, maybe DT we have to return to your original question about the plane in departure readiness. The timetable seems off as well as the motivation.

Remember Michael told Fredo that Roth wouldn't see the New Year if I remember correctly, so it would make sense the plane was ready and waiting just after midnight. As has been said I'm sure the bodyguard was told to be there by midnight or he would be left.

Either way it seems Michael was leaving not long after midnight regardless of the military situation. Like he told Roth when they cut the cake after he seen the rebel blow himself and the captain up that it showed him they could win the war. He wasn't spending money in Cuba regardless.

As Oli said, the big mystery is why he told Fredo anything about his plans for Roth, especially since he didn't want Fredo to do anything except "go along." I guess he meant, "stay close to me," which may have been why he saw no need to tell Fredo about the plane.

Because he knew Fredo had betrayed him. He didn't trust him so thus he never said anything about his exit plans to him. No need to. Before he told him that he knew it was him he really didn't know what was Fredo's fate, maybe he thought about wacking him and leaving him in Cuba! It was in the last minutes that he decided to bring him back but them breaks him as his punishment.

But he didn't know Fredo betrayed him until Fredo's slip of the tongue at the party later that night.

And, if he did know, it made no sense for him to tell Fredo that he was going to kill Roth, exit plans or no exit plans.

Anyway, why would he tell Fredo about the plane? Without the chaos of the abdication, there would have been plenty of time to fetch Fredo after the assassination, and plenty of alternative ways from Fredo to get out of Cuba.

That's worth repeating.

After the Tahoe shooting, Michael told Tom: "Fredo? He's got a good heart. But he's weak, and stupid, and this is life and death." I think he meant that he didn't think Fredo had any role in the shooting or had betrayed him, he just felt that Fredo wasn't up to the task of leading the family in his absence. And, despite the hard looks Michael gave Fredo in Havana (in his hotel room and at the nightclub), I think he was genuinely shocked and devastated when Fredo made his fatal gaffe at the Superman show.

There has been so much back and forth on this point that what I am thinking at this stage may have already been posted. I think Michael had a clue it might be Fredo who was the traitor, and his question about Johnny Ola was not some random musing.

I believe Michael's heart of hearts (such as his heart was)did not want to believe it was Fredo, even though he was a suspect. When Fredo made his Superman Show statement, Michae looked as pained as he did because now he knew he had irrefutable evidence that his brother was the traitor. I think it could have been at that same moment Michael now knew the Corleone family would forever be at war with itself, and the fiction he used to justify his existence.."I do these things to protect the family," was no longer an honest defense. In all it was the beginning of the end not only for Fredo, but for Michael as well.

That point's well-taken, dt. If you're a believer in destiny, you could say that the beginning of the end occurred in the hospital when he said to Vito, "I'm with you now, Pop." But when he finally realized that Fredo was the traitor--and that he'd have to kill him--it finally closed off any exit he might have used to redeem himself.

At the "I'm with you Pop" moment, Michael still could rationalize things. His father was no different than any powerful man, like a Senator or a Congressman. Wba, at that moment, it hit Michael that not only had he reached the point of no return, but that he was destined to a failed chase after the illusion of legitimacy for the rest of his life. Just as he knew his brother had betrayed him, he also already knew he was losing his wife, and children. The family he was saving was coming apart. His response, as we see was to become even more ruthless.