I want to revisit a subject that’s often come up on this board in various ways:

Michael initially didn’t suspect Fredo of having a role in the Tahoe shooting. When he tells Tom, “Fredo? He’s got a good heart, but he’s weak and stupid—and this is life or death,” he was saying that Fredo didn’t have what it took to run the family in his absence, not that he suspected Fredo of treason. But, he may have started suspecting Fredo by the time he got to Havana:

I believe he had Fredo bring the $2 million, rather than Rocco and/or Neri, because he wanted to signal Roth that he still hadn’t dismissed them as possibly complicit in the Tahoe shooting. He may also have been signaling Roth that he didn’t suspect Fredo—the better to make Roth “relax,” as he said to Pentangeli earlier. He may also have wanted Fredo there to determine for himself if Fredo had any role, or knew anything about, the attempt on his life. Many of us here have noted the two suspicious, penetrating looks he gives Fredo: when Fredo asked if anyone he knew was in Havana; and later, when Michael “introduced” Fredo to Ola. His devastated reaction to Fredo’s fatal gaffe at the Superman show may have been his confirmation that his suspicions were justified—rather than suddenly realizing that Fredo, unexpectedly, was the traitor inside his family.

So: if he had any suspicions or doubts about Fredo, why did Michael tell him when and how Roth was planning to assassinate him—and that “Hyman Roth will never see the New Year”? Those revelations potentially put Michael’s life in a possible traitor's hands. And, even if Michael still didn’t suspect him, why would he tell his plans to “weak, stupid” Fredo when he said he didn’t need Fredo to do anything to help him?

Your thoughts?

In the aftermath of the shooting, Fredo is nowhere to be found. Every Corleone button is out there on the manhunt, and Connie and Mama Corleone are with Kay comforting the children. Fredo doesn't show up until after Michael hand the reins over to Tom. He finally showed up to drag Deanna away after she sees the dead shooters, and he was still in his robe and pajamas.

Clear back to GF1, Michael had already questioned Fredo's loyalty, reprimanding him for taking sides with Moe Greene in the casino takeover dispute. He knew Fredo had poor self-discipline, from readily adopting the hedonistic Vegas lifestyle to allowing Moe Greene to smack Fredo around with no retribution.

As the pieces started to fall into place, notice how Fredo's tone becomes more nervous and agitated:

- After bringing the $2 million to Havana, Michael lets him know the Corleones are buying into Cuba. Fredo says he's nervous, and slips that "Havana's my kind of town." This from a guy who's supposedly there for the first time.
- Michael predicts his assassination and that Roth is behind it. Fredo's facial expressions indicate deception when he asks how he can help, and becomes much more high-pitched and nervous in his inflection. Contrast this to how calm and cool he is where he's introducing Michael to the Senators, and later how he tells about how Johnny Ola knew about all the great places in Havana.
- After that scene with Fredo and Michael, Roth tells Michael his sixth sense says that Fredo brought the $2 million. Michael never mentioned to Roth the logistics of the money making its way to Cuba, much less Fredo's role.
- Then at the New Year's party, Fredo can't even muster a coherent excuse for leaving the contingent.

Much of what we discuss in this Forum is probably more about FFC's production choices especially regarding II since there is no novel to contribute to it. If Fredo did not bring the $2 million to Cuba, then there's no conversation between Michael and Fredo and, thus, no revelation to the audience that Michael has plans to murder Roth; there's no dramatic revelation to Michael about Fredo's complicity; there's no kiss of death, etc.

That and other scenes leave us puzzled. For example, as cited in this and other threads, why in the world would Michael reveal his Roth murder plans to someone he suspected of being a Roth ally or a Roth marionette? Why indeed! Because the audience needs to know Michael's plan and FFC wants drama and to lay the groundwork for fratricide.

The only thing I can think of would be if Michael told Fredo that he was going to kill Roth, Fredo would somehow try to relay that to Roth.

I'm always amused how the Cuban police promptly march right into the hospital and shoot Michael's bodyguard.

..just after Fredo tells Michael (at the party), "I'm gonna get me a real drink."

When Michael asked Fredo if he knew Johnny Ola, it was a trap...a loaded question.

As for Fredo telling Roth about Michael's plans, my guess is he did. How else would the Cuban police have known to go to the hospital to kill the bodyguard? Just a thought, but sending the police to the hospital may have been Batista's last order as president.

Wait a minute. New Year's eve saw Castro on the outskirts of Havana, about to enter it, and to devastate all of Batista's allies, those who opposed him, and those who would otherwise stand in his way.

The military showed up to escort Roth out of the country. That's all. They entered his room without guns drawn.

I always guessed (repeat, guessed) that Fredo tipped off the police. I think when he said, "I'm gonna get me a real drink," he was headed for a phone, to tip off his contacts that Roth hadn't shown up at the New Year's Eve party.

If Fredo tipped Roth to Michael's plan, Roth could easily have had him killed as soon as Roth got the news. That's one of reasons why I'm baffled by why Michael confided in Fredo.

TB, that's why I say that FFC had to have a way to let the audience know that Michael planned to murder Roth. That the reason for that incongruous conversation between Michael and Fredo. That conversation also further paints Fredo as a vulnerable, naive, and insecure sibling that will prey on the audience's sympathy and make the fratricide all the more horrible.

But regarding the soldiers showing up at the hospital: I still think it was on Batista's orders to secure Roth's exit from the country. I don't believe that if further betrayal was in Fredo's heart that he would have waited several hours to exercise it.

Good point. I had not considered the Roth/Batista angle.

The military demarche on the hospital logically was ordered by Batista. Perhaps Johnny Ola's body was found, and Batista or someone in SIM (his "gestapo") figured Roth would be next. Or, Batista knew he was going to resign, and as a last favor to his "old friend and associate from Florida," ordered his loyalists to take Roth out of the hospital and put him on a boat--and just happened on the bodyguard doing his dirty deed. But, I like to let my imagination ramble by connecting Fredo's getting "a real drink" with what was shown in the very next scene.

Well TB, there's nothing wrong with letting one's imagination roam. However, why would Fredo wait until almost midnight to inform Ola or Roth instead of informing them much earlier in the day right after Michael tells him of his murder plans?

Also, what about this. Michael attends the New Year's eve celebration. He knows that the military will feign escorting him home after the celebration, but instead murder him. So, why does he stay at the party and not leave until he figures out that Batista's hours are numbered?

[sighs] I know, Oli. I guess I'm just a hopeless dreamer, always trying to rescue FFC and Puzo from the directoral license/poor writing conundrum.


The only thing I can think of is that he was waiting for the bodyguard to show up to tell him that Roth was dead. But, once Batista made his declaration, Michael probably figured that all hell would break loose, and that the bodyguard might be delayed. So, had to get on that plane right away before air traffic was halted or blocked in the general melee.

The only other point that Fredo could have tipped anyone off was immediately after the scene where Michael predicts his assassination (Roth's rather racist comments about the local doctor). Aside from "getting a real" drink, it's the only scene where Michael and Fredo are not together until the New Year.

Just hypotheticals here -- and assuming Batista had not resigned -- Michael might have outmaneuvered Roth by traveling with the Senators. In the Batista regime, the US Ambassador was at least the second most powerful man on the island. To have an assassination in full view of several powerful US government officials would have been a disaster.

Since the issue of Michael's immediate flight (in both senses of the word) has come up, here's a question: Wouldn't this mean that Michael would have had to abandon all the personal items that he brought to Cuba, since his clothing, etc. would still be in his hotel room? Or could we assume that, anticipating he would be leaving for the airport directly from the presidential palace in any event, Michael would have already arranged for his luggage to be stored aboard the plane?

More to the point, where is the $2 million that Fredo brought to the island? Michael certainly never gave it over to Roth. Would it not be stored in the hotel safe? If not, then where?

~ Q

If that's the case, and Roth knew in advance that the hit attempt was coming, then why were he and Johnny Ola caught so flat-footed when it came? Bussetta was able to walk right into Ola's room, completely unobstructed, and strangle Johhny Ola right there on the spot, without so much as anybody else even being there to challenge it.

As for Roth, if a tipoff to Batista's police was his only line of defense, it almost came too late, as Bussetta was within a couple of minutes of finishing off Roth right then and there.

~ Q

I'm looking at the transcript on the companion site. The sequence goes:

1. Bussetta strangles Ola
2. Roth to be removed from hotel to hospital, with Busetta [edit] observing
3. Fredo goes to get a real drink
4. Bussetta stalks Roth at the hospital
5. Police march in and kill Bussetta

Timelines are flexible when the scenes switch back and forth, but I think the best bet here is that if Fredo tried to call someone at this point, then no one was there to answer. The best bet seems to be that Roth was going to be moved, someone went to tell Ola and found his dead body, so protection was ordered for Roth.

Well, TB, Q, and Pete ya'll make good points. However, I think we are all prisoners of the drama created by FFC's epic and the storyline he wanted to follow. Because of that, there are no satisfying answers to our questions.

I asked in a post above why Roth's wife didn't miss Ola when Roth was taken to the hospital since Ola was apparently in the same hotel suite when he was murdered. I also asked why Bussetta chose to strangle Ola which could have resulted in a struggle that would have alerted the others in the suite instead of using a knife or bludgeon, or a pistol with a silencer. I also asked what possible reason Fredo could have for waiting for what was probably 6-7 hours until almost midnight to possibly alert Ola or Roth to Michael's murder plans if indeed he did try to alert them (which I don't think he did).

Well, it's safe to say that we will never know!

Agreed. But it's sure fun to try.


Perhaps (very upset, she was crying in the hospital) she rushed out with the medics who took Roth to the hospital without further ado.

Perhaps he was in the Sicilian Boy Scouts, where he learned to be resourceful and thrifty.

We all agree that Fredo wasn't the sharpest knife in the drawer.

These two scenes precede Ola's murder:

a. Fredo is "introduced" to Johnny Ola.
b. The Superman scene where Fredo inadvertantly reveals his betrayal, followed by Michael signaling to Bussetta to go.

It appears there's been quite a bit of drinking between the two scenes (carrying bottles of rum, and women draped on the Senators). However, Ola disappears as well, presumably back to the hotel as he's strangled in the next scene. It's another potential spot where Fredo could have tipped off Roth via Ola, but I doubt Michael would have not missed that.

Okay. Michael and Fredo go have a drink. It's December 30. Michael tells Fredo his plan to murder Roth. So, if we think that Fredo left the New Year's Eve party to ostensibly go and get a real drink, but actually to tell Roth of Michael's plot, he apparently waited to do so for the rest of the 30th and all but a few minutes of the 31st. Makes sense?

The more I watch these scenes, I don't think Fredo could have tipped off Roth. Immediately preceding Bussetta's attempt on Roth at the hospital, there's a scene from the party:

- A Senator makes a comment that he thought Roth would be in attendance. Geary asks about protocol.
- Presumably senior Cuban military officials march into the party and talk to Batista behind closed doors. Michael astutely observes this while eating cake.

This is speculation, but I would agree with Turnbull's take -- Batista was advised of the rebel situation, realized his situation was untenable, then ordered the military to provide protection for his supporter Roth (Roth was based on Meyer Lansky, who contributed millions to Batista's fortune). Having come across Ola's body at the hotel, the urgent march to the hospital and shooting of Bussetta would make sense. In the follow up scene in Las Vegas, Tom Hagen notes that Roth was moved to Miami. In real life, most of Cuba's government, friends and supporters left the island before sunrise, and Castro didn't capture the city until January 8.

Michael had already made his own plans to depart. Before giving the kiss of death, he told Fredo he had a plane leaving in an hour. As Batista announced his resignation, Michael started making his way off the island. One could assume that the money and his belongings were awaiting him in the car or in the plane.

Something else I noticed while catching the end of GF1 yesterday -- just before Vito's death, he and Michael lay the groundwork for the climax. Vito reminds Michael about monitoring the inbound and outbound calls to root out the traitor.

Considering that, plus Paulie's treason was earlier exposed the same way, I would suspect Michael would have performed the same measures after his assassination attempt. Ola's middle of the night call to Fredo would have raised Michael's suspicion that Fredo was the one who flipped, and the Havana trip was to fully flesh that out. With the Corelone family all located in the Tahoe compound, that monitoring would be easier. Granted, there wasn't caller ID in 1958, but a long distance call from Miami wouldn't be too hard to figure out.

Hmmm...that's an interesting speculation, Jack. Since Michael had initiated the phone surveillance at the Mall in GF, he might very well have done the same at the compound in Tahoe just as a routine precaution--long before the shooting.

Here's another one:

Michael had a chartered airplane standing by to take him out of Cuba. I'm guessing he did it as a precaution: he wanted to be out of Habana when Cuban authorities discovered Roth's murder. But, when Michael revealed his plans to Fredo while they were having their drink, he didn't tell him about the chartered airplane. Why? We might think it was because the plane was a last-minute move. But since Michael's plan was that "Hyman Roth will never see the New Year," he knew almost to the hour when he'd have to order the hit on Roth--whether or not he found out who the traitor in his family was. So, I'm guessing, he had the plane ordered well in advance.

Well, there are problems with the whole setup. Michael knows he's to be murdered New Year's eve, but he still hangs around. Why? If he's got a plane standing by, why not leave earlier that night or day? His plan to murder Roth does not require his presence on the island; in fact, his absence makes much more sense. He doesn't know that Batista is going to abdicate. Thus, he knows that once Roth's (or Ola's) body is found, he's a primary suspect whose murder by the military is planned anyway.

I think he had to stick around as long as possible to try to find out who the traitor was in his family. Immediately after Fredo made his fatal gaffe, he signaled the bodyguard to go ahead and kill Roth.

Turnbull beat me to it...I was writing the same thing about why Michael would stick around.

After the Superman club, Michael had to stick around for an alibi, and who better than hanging out with the true power behind the Batista government -- the Senate contingent and the big money interests. If Roth turns up dead, Michael's got those guys to vouch for his whereabouts, plus Geary was in his pocket. And I doubt Batista would remain loyal to a dead guy over the monied interests; it's not like Roth will be able to line that Swiss bank account.

But Batista resigned, and Michael figured it was every man for himself (he's out the door before the speech is over). Batista's out of power, and he presumes (incorrectly) that Roth is dead, so why not use the vacuum to make it safely off the island.

Bussetta was probably on his own after Michael gave the nod to hit Roth. It wasn't until Michael made it back to Las Vegas did he learn that Bussetta was dead.

TB and ITs, I don't understand your logic. Why in the world would a Mafia Don need to stick around to provide himself with an alibi? An alibi to be told to whom? Why not avoid the whole idea of an alibi by just leaving the island? Also, how did Micheal's remaining on the island (until he had no other choice than to leave) further his supposed objective of finding out who was the traitor?

Because he didn't know it for sure until Fredo made his fatal gaffe at the Superman show. Then he immediately dispatched Busetta to kill Roth.

I didn't say that he stuck around for the presidential party specifically because he needed an alibi. He probably stuck around because he and Fredo were squiring around that high powered delegation of US politicos. Recall that, at the party, some of the people were asking after Roth. They'd be asking after Michael if he, too, failed to show--and might have put two and two together after Roth turned up dead.

That leaves the question of why he invited the politicos to Cuba. Guess: Another way to "relax" Roth by proving to Roth that he was cementing his political flank as Roth's designated successor in Cuba. Another guess: A way to prove to Batista and/or his successors that he had enough clout to bring high-powered politicos to the island. And, possibly, to establish an alibi and use political clout to shield him.