Michael had been stringing Roth along in Havana, buying time to find out who was the traitor in his family. He had to have Roth killed before the New Year--whether or not he had identified the traitor--because he knew Roth was planning to have him killed after the Presidential party. He also had to fly out of Havana immediately afterward to avoid being implicated in Roth's murder. Luckily for Michael, Fredo revealed himself as the traitor at the Superman show.

But, what if Fredo hadn't made his fatal gaffe? Fredo would have been on the plane with Michael. They would have returned to Tahoe, with Michael none the wiser about the traitor's identity. He would be sitting in his closed compound, worrying day and night that the traitor--"someone very close to us," as he told Tom on the night of the shooting--was still inside the compound. What's more, Roth had survived the murder attempt, keeping the plot against Michael alive, and the traitor still as dangerous as ever.

What would he have done next?

TB, once in Nevada, Michael doesn't worry more than any other Don would worry. The possibility of death is always with them, but they can't predicate their lives on that. Roth is no more a threat to Michael than any Mafioso.

I think we ask first: why was Michael at the party? Why didn't he leave Cuba hours earlier? If he doesn't yet know who is the traitor and he knows he's to be murdered, why does he remain in Cuba?

I think that Michael stayed in Cuba because he had to play Roth out to the very last minute in order to find out who the traitor was. He went to the party to establish an alibi for himself--he was there while Roth was to be murdered by the bodyguard.

But what better alibi than to say "Hey, I was on a plane back to Tahoe when the attempt on Roth was made?" Him being at the party served no purpose, other than to put himself in danger. He could have left right after the Superman show and been safely on his way home when the hits on Ola and Roth were being carried out.

Fredo was stupid. He would have revealed himself in time had he not screwed up at the Superman show. From that point, the end of Fredo would have occurred pretty much like it did originally.

Of course, the question is: for whom would Michael need an alibi since the Cuban government intended to murder him regardless? Also,one should consider that as long as Michael was in Cuba, he was vulnerable to being murdered. That vulnerability would seem to greatly outweigh any need for an alibi.

Also TB, how sure are we that Michael was stringing Roth along? It's confusing. I don't understand why Roth told Michael that the $2 million never made it to the island when, soon after, Fredo shows up with the $2 million. Then, Michael tells Roth that he just wants to wait, seemingly because he thinks the rebels could win.

The chronology appears out of whack.

That's a point I had not previously considered. Everyone in Michael's life, other than his children, was expendable. He probably knew that the bodyguard's chance to succeed in killing Roth was minimal. But if caught, the bodyguard would surely be killed and thus not give away Michael as the mastermind.

I don't know how minimal the bodyguard's chances were. He successfully killed Ola and would have killed Roth but for the inopportune appearance of the soldiers. Surely, even if the nurse was still at her post, she could have been disposed of easily.

I don't think Michael expected the bodyguard to get killed or captured. Busetta was at Michael's side throughout the Cuba trip. Any sort of investigation, regardless of whether Busetta was alive or dead, would have quickly pointed the finger at Michael.

At a certain point, you have to accept a certain level of directoral license, After all, why would a trained assassin have gone on an important mission with only a coat hanger and a pillow as weapons?

Let me expand upon my statement, Last Woltz. Sure Busetta killed Ola without a problem, but that was in a private hotel room with no witnesses. The attempt on Roth was in a very public locale with plenty of hospital staff around.

Given Michael's coldness, perhaps he valued Busetta's worth more than some others given that Busetta was supposed to be his protector. Since Michael was in a foreign country, he was probably did value his protection more than had he been in a familiar setting.

When I originally wrote this yesterday, I was envisioning the Tahoe scene in which Rocco volunteered for a suicide mission. But I was too quick to equate that with the Busetta mission. Thanks for making me see the difference.

I've thought about that, too, Oli. Michael did take a hell of a chance sticking around at the Presidential party, knowing that he was targeted for post-party assassination by the Cuban government (probably SIM, Batista's Gestapo). Roth would have arranged the assassination through Batisa or a higher-up in the government, who would have instructed SIM to kill Michael, probably without naming or involving Roth in any way. So, logically, SIM people would have been at the party, shadowing Michael. They wouldn't have known--or cared-if Roth had been killed: their orders would have been not to let Michael out of their sight. He wouldn't have gotten on that plane alive.

Michael and anyone else who could read news reports would have known by late December '58 that Batista was about to become history. But, he couldn't have known that Batista would abdicate after midnight on New Year's Eve. Once Batista made his announcement, the SIM people shadowing Michael would have forgotten about him and turned to the much more urgent task of saving their own lives. So, Batista's abdication announcement may have saved Michael's life.