Rewatching both films again over Thanksgiving it got me thinking about both “antagonists” Brazini and Roth. As we know Both create intelligent plans to destroy the Corleone Family and both nearly work only failing because a stroke of luck. I’ll start with Barzini

As we know Barzini was the mastermind of the plot to kill Vito and become the Boss of Bosses. However he used The Tattaglia Family and their narcotics man Sollozzo to execute his plan. It’s really brilliant because Vito and us as the audience think that it’s the Tattaglia Family who are the main adversary. Obviously Vito surviving was pure luck. He was also able to manipulate people with the Corleone Family like Paulie Gatto to turn on them and later use Carlo Rizzi to execute Sonny. Eventually for a time Barzini does seem to get what he wants since the Corleones have been severely weakened, they now can get into narcotics, and get some political influence from Vito. However this is where Barzini makes his mistakes. As the commission meeting he overplays his hand and Vito is able to deduce that he was the mastermind all along. You could also argue that Barzini’s biggest mistake was not finishing the Corleone family when he had the chance. Unbeknownst to him he allowed Mike and Vito to formulate a long term plan and counter attack. Even though Barzini planned to kill Mike with his classic tactics it was too late and Mike saw it coming. In the end despite the brilliant plan the Corleone Family ended up becoming as strong or even stronger than before.

Roth takes a different approach. In the beginning Mike and Roth are in the middle of a big deal. Mike sees this as top priority whereas this is just a ruse. Despite Pentangeli telling him not to trust Roth Mike is blinded by the prospects of the deal and nearly pays for. Similar to Vito he survives by pure luck. Unlike the First film Mike knows who is enemy is right away. You would think that means the plan was bad but quite the opposite. Roth had several backup plans. He had the Rosatos/Frankie beef to use to his advantage as well as the senate lawyer Questadt to bring Mike down. Even though Roth had his own luck surviving an attempt on his life in Havana he still has his plan in motion. The one mistake he made was revealing his vengeance about Moe Greene. Roth was a master at keeping his emotions in check but he slipped there. Also using Fredo turned to backfire since Fredo drunkingly said he knew both Roth and Ola. Also Fredo eventually told Mike about Questadt which ended up saving Mikes ass otherwise he would have gone to jail most likely. In the end Roth loses but I feel he caused lasting damage. Think about it in his quest to bring down Roth he lost two of his capos, his brother, his wife, etc. part of it was self inflicted but part of it was Roth too. So even though Roth lost I felt his plan was the better one since it caused long term damage unlike Barzini’s plan which despite the damage it caused to the Corleones it ended up making them stronger.


Interested to hear your thoughts!

Excellent analysis, JC. Thanks for posting it.
I agree that Barzini was brilliant in using Sol and Tatt as his proxies in his quest to become Numero Uno. I posted a while back that Sol, knowing Barzini's ambitions, probably approached him first, thinking he'd have the most to gain from an alliance. I never cease to wonder why Vito said, after the Commission meeting, "Until this day I never knew that it was Barzini all along...Tattaglia is a pimp--alone he could never have outfought Santino." If that was true, then why didn't you figure it out sooner? Duhh, Vito.

But Barz screwed up big time in the last plot. It was all so obvious: provoking the Corleones by horning in on their territory, then calling for a sit-down. Using Tessio, who was so plainly disgruntled in the fish tank scene, and so obviously servile to Barzini at Vito's burial. Barzini was getting complacent--just as Vito was before he was shot.

Roth was by far the most formidable enemy--endlessly resourceful and determined, with backup plans for each contingency. I don't agree that his speech about Moe was a big mistake--Michael already knew Roth was the Tahoe culprit and also knew his plan to have him whacked after the Presidential party.

You were insightful to note that Roth did permanent damage to Michael even though he lost the contest. In addition to what you said: Even though Pentangeli recanted his affidavit at the Senate hearing, Michael was subjected to accusations and revelations that, although not proven in a court of law, exposed him to millions of people as a possible Mob boss. People seldom believe that you're innocent until proven guilty. It was a blow to his legitimacy and self esteem.

Thanks Turnbull! Maybe mistake was the wrong word but I’m not sure if Roth meant to mention Moe or just lost his temper in a rare instance. Yes I agree it didn’t make a difference since Mike knew it was him already but I guess what I meant was Mike now knew part of Roth’s motivation

1. I don't think there's any evidence that Barzini assisted in the attacks on Vito/Luca. Sollozzo tells Tom that the Tattaglias are behind him, but the other families would just go along. At that point, Sollozzo himself should smell a rat if Barzini was assisting but wouldn't reveal himself.

As I've said here before, I think Barzini's role in the initial attacks is simply to tell Sollozzo/Tattaglia that he won't go in on drugs unless Vito is in, too. That puts Sol and Vito on a collision course. It also explains why Sol doesn't claim a Barzini alliance, but Vito is right in saying it's Barzini all along.

2. I think Roth is acting when he brings up Moe. He wants Michael to think that he's conflicted working with Mike, to keep Mike from thinking about his vulnerability in Cuba. Roth also wants Mike to think the suitcase full of money is of secondary importance to Roth.

3. IF Roth actually was motivated by vengeance for Moe, Barzini wins from the grave. Barzini promised support for Moe, which emboldened Moe to dig in his heels, which led to Moe's demise. So if Roth actually was motivated by vengeance for Moe, he was just playing out a hand Barzini had dealt years before.

Interesting points Pete. Although I think it’s very likely the actual hit men who tried to assassinate Vito were Purely Tattaglia soldiers. However I still think Barzini was the mastermind behind it. I think it’s very possible Sollozzo had no idea Barzini was manipulating Tattaglia and I think Barzini wanted it that way for obvious reasons. As for Roth “acting” like he was upset about Moe that’s very interesting and certainly possible knowing how clever he is. I still think he was indeed pissed off and it played at least a tiny part in him wanting to destroy Mike

Tattaglia strikes me as the Fredo of the Commission,eager to have something "on his own"'and be the big shot.
Barzini was smart enough to capitalize on this and let Tatt be the front man.
I believe that he 'suggested' that his involvement be kept secret,even from Solozzo,thereby allowing the Pimp to demonstrate that he was "smaht" and could handle things.

The novel says at the Commission meeting, that Tatt was led by Barzini's hand or something to that effect.

My two cents worth!
Barzini tried to car bomb Michael, whose surviving was pure luck as well, same as the others and to keep the plot moving

I reckon, he couldn't finish them off because of the peace deal but no doubt underestimated Michael and overestimated their perceived weakness, when Barzini's people chisel Tessio's territory, and they did nothing about it

Fredo telling Mike about Questadt was not what ended up saving Mike's ass Small potatoes!
It was Frankie's brother's presence who was already on his way so I reckon Mike going to jail was never likely

What is the point of having a better plan and over three hundred million dollars when no country would take him -- not for a million -- not for ten million. Then end up killed, at an airport

while he lost two of his capos, his brother, his marriage, he didn't end up dead like Roth In fact, as we debated in Did Roth sort of win? thread:
1. Roth was a formidable enemy but let's not overstate the impact he had on Michael
2. he was richer, more powerful and "legitimate" than ever and there were happy times in GFIII

Don't know Pete, I reckon, attack on the Top Don, wouldn't have been without Barzini's backing and sanctioned by him
Tattaglia is a pimp and as Lou posted, the Fredo of the Commission

I agree! with Vito that it was – Barzini all along....and Michael that it was Hyman Roth that tried to have Michael killed

Michael's greed, nearly undone himself with Roth, Michael believing Roth [and the other partners] will go along with Michael moving Klingman out – gifting Michael their hotel
and perhaps if not for the Tahoe shooting - Roth's role - Kay may have continued living the life she had chosen

Why the Tahoe assassins?

The Roth/Michael relationship showed, once again, how greed blinds otherwise intelligent men to the obvious. This played out to an end game in Havana:

Michael was so greedy for Roth's Havana gaming empire that he was blind to the obvious: Why would Roth, who lived in Miami and had business interests in Nevada and Cuba, interest himself in a two-bit dispute between Pentangeli and the Rosato brothers over three territories in the Bronx? Ever occur to you, Michael, that maybe, just maybe, Roth was planning to install the Rosatos as the new bosses of your New York gambling and muscle empire--after he arranged to have you killed?

Roth was so greedy for the $2 million that he was blind to the obvious: Why would Michael, after he told Roth in Miami that "Frank Pentangeli is a dead man," instead dispatch him to settle his problems with the Rosatos? Ever occur to you, Roth, that maybe, just maybe, Michael didn't suspect Pentangeli in the Tahoe shooting--meaning that he might suspect you?

One of the marvels of that last scene between Michael and Roth in the Havana hotel room is that, by that time, both were onto each other: Michael knew Roth's plan to have him killed, and Roth knew that Michael was not in Havana to pay to be anointed as his successor--and yet both were hanging tough at the end: Roth for his $2 million, Michael buying time to find the traitor.

Vito always knew it wasn't Tattaglia but didn't have enough information to know who was really behind things.

The same dynamic was repeated in GFIII with Michael and Zasa, prompting Michael's "Our true enemy has not yet shown his face" quote.

I think Vito played it beautifully, organizing a meeting with all his potential adversaries and waiting for one of them to slip and reveal himself, which Barzini did. That set the groundwork for the Corleones' eventual victory. Until that day, Vito was only guessing and the Corleones were losing.

If it wasn't Tattaglia, it seems to me, the only other obvious candidate who could have been "really behind things" is Barzini

• Vito's mistake

Vito didn't look any further after Tom unearthed the Tattaglia-Sollozzo connection which I believe exactly as [Barzini]-Sollozzo-Tattaglia intended like Sollozzo was trying to conceal his Tattaglia connection ie: for Tom not to dig any further

Sollozzo played it beautifully, complimenting Tom's gotcha! moment

• Peace meeting

Vito approached Barzini?
Barzini chaired! the meeting

My take, for what it is worth!

• Roth's biggest mistake and undoing

Roth was being too clever, interesting himself in the “Rosatos/Frankie beef” thus showing his hand and trying to frame Pentangeli for the Tahoe shooting [Roth probably thinking Pentangeli would air his grievances with Michael unsuccessfully....] - always a futile exercise - unnecessarily complicated Roth's never been done before bold plan, gunning down the Top Don, in his own bedroom

Tom, Neri and Rocco? were present at Michael-Pentangeli meeting and witnessed everything
They could have easily figured out it was – Roth all along....in spite of all the chaos ensued if Michael had been killed

• Greed

I don't think Roth was a greedy man

I believe Roth was not greedy for Michael's $2 million [Michael was all set to be murdered New Year's Eve with or without the $2 million] but of course if it fell into Roth's lap, Roth will take it Bonus! and added bonus Michael's own money paying for his own murder

You are good!

. You have to remember Mike had no idea about Questadt. I think Mikes ego was big enough that he felt he could beat the Senate hearing which is why he didn’t take the 5th. However once he found out that Roth had a senate lawyer in his pocket Mike knew he would lose unless he took drastic measures

[quote=JCrusher
You have to remember Mike had no idea about Questadt. I think Mikes ego was big enough that he felt he could beat the Senate hearing which is why he didn’t take the 5th. However once he found out that Roth had a senate lawyer in his pocket Mike knew he would lose unless he took drastic measures
[/quote]
Sure, ego was part of it: Michael, the biggest gangster in America, demanding to be considered "legitimate" and actually believing it, is a massive exercise in ego. But it wasn't the only reason he didn't take the Fifth:

All Mafia higher-ups have small-time "legitimate" jobs that they use to declare some income and avoid getting nailed for tax evasion. But, when they're called before grand juries or Congress, they take the Fifth--they're not trying to convince people they're not gangsters, as Michael was obsessed with doing--they're trying to avoid being prosecuted for perjury. But Michael had two other reasons for not taking the Fifth: He fell into Roth's trap by believing that Cicci, who said he never spoke to him, was the highest ranking witness against him; and he .probably feared that if he took the Fifth, millions of his fellow Americans watching the hearing would wonder why his answers "might tend to incriminate me," and the Nevada Gaming Commission would be pressured into launching an investigation into his background and holdings.

He did beat the Senate hearing!
You have to remember Michael was always too smart to let Roth beat him

Knowing or not knowing about Questadt made no difference whatsoever to Mike's defense Good or Bad He was so ineffective anyway
1. He couldn't stop the Chairman allowing Mr. Corleone to read his statement -- I'll put it in the record.
2. Pentangeli under oath, made him look ridiculous!
3. He stood in the courtroom like a fool

He had already taken the necessary measures by bringing Frankie's brother over
There was no need for him to take any further measures drastic or otherwise And he didn't lose

True Turnbull we debated in Rocco linked to Michael and various other threads: why Michael didn't, couldn't, in fact never could take the Fifth and never would have Questadt or no Questadt

Fredo telling Mike about Questadt eventually, only confirmed in no uncertain terms how he was in deeper with Roth against his own kid brother than he was letting on
1. I haven't got a lot to say Mike.
2. I was kept pretty much in the dark.
3. I didn't know all that much.

Again, it made no difference whatsoever to Mike's defense Good or Bad

. Agree to Disagree

Excellent, Movie fact-based analysis, Evita - Factual, Insightful Right again! Credit where credit is due....Fair's Fair
Sure thing Michael “Knowing or not knowing about Questadt made no difference whatsoever to Mike's defense Good or Bad”

My only debating point Michael was [not!] always smart

Michael's greed, nearly undone himself with Roth believing Roth that Michael was - Roth's successor, the heir apparent - blinded until Michael survived the Tahoe bedroom shooting
I didn't know until this day that Questadt was -- a Dud! Poor Roth always picking Duds! Roth's Achilles heel

• Fredo
  Quote

  I can handle things I'm smart -- not like everyone says -- not dumb, smart and I want respect!
• Tahoe assassins couldn't shoot fish in a barrel!
• Questadt -- well -- was -- well – “Pentangeli under oath, made him look ridiculous!” indeed

$300 million in Roth's 'pension' silk purse Madonne! Yet....

. Eh to be fair Roth was pretty much outsmarting Mike most of the film snd the events before the film shown. Let’s be honest he didn’t have the power Mike had and still went toe to toe with him. He nearly took him down and if it wasn’t by a stroke of luck Mike would’ve been dead. Sure Mike ended up beating Roth but at what cost? Fredo was dead, Frankie who was a well respected loyal capo who ran the NY Corleone operation was gone, Rocco who rose through the ranks to be a top capo was also gone. Mike suffered a huge beating at the hands of Roth. Part of it is as his own fault like Fredo and Kay but there is no doubt that Roth had a big impact on Mike

No doubt about it: Roth did outsmart Michael for most of the movie, and Michael's "victory" cost him dearly. He paid in misery for the rest of his years. That's the :story of Michael's life: constantly winning battles and losing wars.

No doubt It's a smart move Roth was always smarter
1. overthought brilliant Tahoe shooting plan fizzled out
2. Havana fizzled out
3. Senate hearing fizzled out

Michael was [not!] always smart Roth was [not!] always smart

Roth nearly did outsmart Michael one time before shooting
1. Roth suffered a huge beating at the hands of Mike
2. Mike had a big impact on Roth
3. Roth's "victory" cost him dearly.
4. Roth paid in misery for the rest of his years.
5. Mike ended up beating Roth
6. Mike not nearly like Roth he took him down

Let’s be honest if it wasn’t by a stroke of luck if not for Military Roth would’ve been dead.

1. Tahoe shooting Fail
2. New York connection Fail
3. two million Fail
4. Havana killing Fail
5. Ola was dead Fail
6. Havana business gone Fail
7. Rosato brothers Fail
8. Senate hearing Fail
9. Questadt Dud Fail
10. turning Frankie Fail
11. perjury Fail
12. Jew in Israel Fail
13. Buenos Aries Fail
14. Panama Fail
15. retired investor on a pension Fail
16. $300 million in Roth's 'pension' silk purse Fail
17. no country take him Fail
18. wife not return with him Fail
19. US return Fail shot dead airport
He nearly [not!] took him down but at what cost? not even tuna sandwich

. I mean Mike also had luck on his side let’s be honest.

Probably Michael's luckiest break (other than ducking the bullets in his bedroom) was Batista's abdication. Sure, he counted on his bodyguard killing Roth before he left Havana. But, since Roth had already arranged for Michael to be killed on his way back to his hotel after the party, I'm sure there were SIM (Batista's secret police) agents bird-dogging him at the party. They wouldn't have had any connection to Roth--their orders would be to make sure Michael got killed in that military car, and they would have followed those orders. Batista's abdication made them run to save their own asses.

Batista's abdication saved both their asses.

I still think Roth’s plan was the best and if not by pure luck Roth wins. If Kay doesn’t mention the drapes Mike is dead and if Fredo doesn’t tell Mike about the Senate lawyer Mike goes to jail

They already knew Frankie was alive, and the senator had openly announced that the committee could establish perjury by Michael. I guess the open question is how did they discover Frankie was alive.

I'm guessing that the committee, by law, had to inform Michael, through Tom, of the identity of the witness (Pentangeli) they were going to put on the stand.

Yes indeed. Roth's plans were brilliant, and he had backups for all of them--even arranging, after his stroke, near murder, and escape from Cuba, to nearly nail Michael at the Senate hearing.

Roth was the scalpel. Barzini was the blunt instrument. He telegraphed his intentions by horning in on Corleone territory, even before Vito died. That's when Michael and Vito knew Barzini would try to kill Michael after Vito died. The only unknown at that point was the identity of the traitor who'd set up a meeting. That warm scene between Barzini and Tessio at Vito's burial answered that question. Barzini was a dead man at that point.

. True. Unlike Roth Barzini never pivoted and had a legit backup plan. Like Sollozzo said he missed his chance. Yes it was a miracle Vito survived but it was obvious he didn’t have a real contingency plan and obviously took Mike too lightly. Maybe you can argue Roth learned from Barzini’s mistake. I also think Roth saw Mikes ruthlessness and realized he was never like his father it that way

Roth's scalpel was not sharp enough to cut through Michael

As we debated in Why the Tahoe assassins? thread:
Roth's plan had too many variables and the New York connection to finger Pentangeli spectacularly failed

Why would Roth have backup plans? Did he foresee Mike would survive by pure luck!

Roth arranging, it's his kinda town Havana Military car plan, though straightaway Red flags after the failed Tahoe shooting Yes indeed but don't know Michael's Senate hearing -- after his stroke, near murder, and escape from Cuba, his priority would have been to avoid coming back to the US and to finding a country that would take him, to save his own ass

Senate hearing as you posted Drama trumps logic every time.

Mike was never going to jail because of Frankie's brother's presence who was already on his way

Michael like father like son
I reckon, Vito the evil, ruthless, murderous original villain is seen through rose-colored glasses. He too was a cold blooded murderer.

Roth

• Roth had Michael believing Michael was Roth's son -- Roth's successor -- Roth's heir apparent
• Roth was the Pied piper! beating the drums! calling the tune! dangling his casino business carrot
• Roth's plan may have been brilliant until Michael survived the Tahoe bedroom shooting

Roth's Achilles heel was, among others
1. Roth “telegraphed his intentions” by involving himself in the Rosato brothers-Pentangeli three territories beef
2. and the spectacularly failed New York connection to finger Pentangeli

Barzini
in addition to “That warm scene between Barzini and Tessio at Vito's burial” the giveaways even without Vito's warning

1. Funeral is not the time and place to arrange meetings
2. Normal procedure, Barzini's consigliere would approach Michael's consigliere
3. How and why rival Don and Capo were even talking, in the first place

The chairman was very helpful! telling Michael about their secret star witness
Did anyone else notice that .......

Star witness -- Frankie Pentangeli who “has had no buffer between himself and Michael Corleone”

. I disagree. Any smart mobster would have a backup plan. As smart as Mike is the only reason he survived was by pure luck that can’t be denied. Vito who was better than Mike had luck on his side too. Just a fact

20. New York connection to finger Pentangeli spectacular Fail
21. Roth's scalpel was not sharp enough to cut through Michael Fail
22. save his own ass Fail

Why would Roth have backup plans? Did he foresee Mike would survive by pure luck!

Mike was never going to jail because of Frankie's brother's presence who was already on his way Yes indeed.

Vito the evil, ruthless, murderous original villain is seen through rose-colored glasses. He too was a cold blooded murderer.
Michael like father like son Yes indeed.

I disagree. Roth’s plan ultimately didn’t work mainly by pure luck on Mikes side just a fact