There is a big Russian minority in Estland and Letland so ofcourse they want influence there, but they know if they invade them art. 5 says NATO has to defend the countries.

Ukraine needs more troops fighting Russia.
Hardened professionals from Colombia are helping

https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-...oldiers-07b5cb7949bd10234e7456f9c1c20b08

Many people say it was wrong to interview Putin. I disagree it shows how a dictator thinks and speaks.

As the second year of the Ukraine war draws to a close, the stalemate continues. The much-vaunted Ukrainian counter-offensive has failed. However, Russia’s goals haven’t been met either as the US and other NATO member states continue to fill Ukraine’s coffers and restock its armory.

On top of that, NATO’s ongoing military exercise Steadfast Defender 2024 is shaking the ground in Europe reaching Russia’s land border from Norway to its maritime border with Romania. The massive drill threatens a continent-wide escalation of the conflict.

According to reports, more than 90,000 troops, 50 warships, and several squadrons of fighter jets, from 31 member countries and Sweden, are participating in the Steadfast Defender 2024 which started on January 22, making it the largest NATO exercise in Europe since the end of the Cold War.

Under the banner of the NATO exercise, with its 12,000 Bundeswehr soldiers, Germany is also flexing its muscles in the “Quadriga 2024” maneuver to increase its military presence in Scandinavia region and Eastern Europe, including the Baltic. The NATO exercise simulating a defensive operation to protect a member nation from an enemy attack, specifically a Russian attack, is scheduled to last till May 31, 2024.

Russian foreign ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova has warned that NATO’s Steadfast Defender drills are “provocative”, and could potentially lead to “tragic consequences” for Europe.

https://peoplesdispatch.org/2024/02...europe-as-nato-drill-goes-full-throttle/

NATO: Trump's statements endanger American and European soldiers

Any suggestion that NATO allies would not defend each other undermines the security of the alliance and endangers American and European soldiers, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said. He responds to statements by former American president Donald Trump that NATO countries must pay enough if they want protection.

According to Stoltenberg, any attack on NATO will be met with a "unified and strong response." He thus rejects Trump's comment that NATO allies who do not pay enough will not be helped in the event of an attack. One of NATO's core principles is that an attack on one member is considered an attack on all members.

But according to Trump, who wants to become president again, Russia can "do whatever it wants" with NATO countries that spend less on defense than the alliance's agreed guideline of 2 percent of gross domestic product. At an election rally, he emphasized that under his leadership the United States will not help those countries. The White House calls Trump's statements "reprehensible and unhinged."

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 11, 2024
Feb 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Download the PDF








Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 11, 2024

Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, and Fredrick W. Kagan

February 11, 2024, 6:35pm ET

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 1:15pm ET on February 11. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the February 12 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.[1] Zelensky also made several other service head appointments on February 11. Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol as Joint Forces Commander replacing Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev.[2] Zelensky appointed Brigadier General Ihor Skybyuk Air Assault Forces Commander replacing Major General Maksym Myrhorodskyi.[3] Zelensky appointed Major General Ihor Plahuta Territorial Defense Forces Commander replacing Major General Anatoliy Barhylevych, who was appointed Chief of the Ukrainian General Staff on February 10.

Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults. Satellite imagery dated May 10, 2023, and February 6 and 10, 2024 shows that Russian forces constructed a long line of train cars stretching from occupied Olenivka (south of Donetsk City) to Volnovakha (southeast of Vuhledar and north of Mariupol) over the past nine months.[5] A Ukrainian source reported on February 11 that Russian forces have assembled more than 2,100 freight cars into a 30-kilometer-long train.[6] The source reported that Russian forces began assembling the train in July 2023 and suggested that Russian forces intend to use the train as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults.[7] The railway line between Olenivka and Volnovakha is roughly six kilometers from ISW’s current assessed frontline southeast of Novomykhailivka at its closest point and is in an area of the front that was relatively inactive when Russian forces reportedly began construction.[8] Russian forces have recently made marginal territorial gains in this area.[9] The Russians could have assembled the train for other purposes as well.

Ukrainian military observers indicated that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is not as productive as Russian authorities portray it to be, but that the Russian DIB is still capable of sustaining Russia’s war effort. Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on February 11 that the Russian Security Council’s own DIB production data for 2023 indicates that the Russian DIB reached a peak output in September 2023 that was 38.9 percent higher than its average 2022 monthly output and has steadily declined in the following months.[10] Mashovets stated that the Russian DIB is struggling to compensate for moderately- and highly-skilled labor shortages and Russia’s inability to obtain the necessary industrial production equipment, spare parts, and servicing to sustain the pace and breadth of DIB production efforts.[11] Mashovets noted that Chinese companies in particular are less willing to provide Russia with equipment and spare parts, as ISW previously reported, and that Russia purchased many industrial production systems from Western states before the full-scale invasion but that Western companies are now unwilling to service or supply parts for these machines due to sanctions.[12]

Ukrainian military analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko stated that Russia’s reported tank production numbers in recent years largely reflect restored and modernized tanks drawn from storage rather than new production.[13] Kovalenko stated that Uralvagonzavod, Russia’s primary tank manufacturer, can produce roughly 60-70 T-90 tanks per year under perfect conditions and assessed that Uralvagonzavod is likely only producing between three and six new T-90 tanks per month.[14] Kovalenko noted that tank manufacturers Uralvagonzavod, Omsktransmash, and the 103rd Armored Tank Repair Plant in Chita, Zabaykalsky Krai are primarily focused on restoring, repairing, and modernizing Russian tanks and that Uralvagonzavod is the only manufacturer producing new tanks.[15] Kovalenko stated that Russia is only modernizing T-54/55 and T-62 tanks and assessed that these may be Russia’s main battle tanks in the future. Kovalenko added that Russian manufacturers very rarely modernize T-72 and T-80 tanks. Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitri Medvedev previously stated that Russian forces received 1,600 tanks in 2023, and Kovalenko attributed this number primarily to restored and modernized rather than serially produced tanks.

Russia’s current limited DIB production capacity and insufficient serial tank production lines are not guarantees that Russia will struggle to produce enough materiel to sustain its war effort at its current pace or in the long term. Russia’s ability to modernize and use tanks retrieved from storage still gives Russian forces an advantage on the battlefield in the overall number of available tanks. Mashovets noted that some newly-produced tanks such as the T-14 Armada are poorly produced whereas older tanks such as T-72s (which Russia actively repairs) are more reliable.[17] Russia has consistently attempted to adapt to the limitations resulting from Western sanctions and to circumvent sanctions and will persist in these efforts. Russia’s DIB may struggle in the near term and increasing sanctions evasion measures and partnerships with states including China and North Korea may help compensate for existing DIB shortcomings in the medium to long term.


Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky appointed Lieutenant General Oleksandr Pavlyuk as Ukrainian Ground Forces Commander, replacing current Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi.
• Russian forces appear to have constructed a 30-kilometer-long barrier dubbed the “tsar train” in occupied Donetsk Oblast, possibly to serve as a defensive line against future Ukrainian assaults.
Ukrainian military observers indicated that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is not as productive as Russian authorities portray it to be, but that the Russian DIB is still capable of sustaining • Russia’s war effort.
• Russia’s current limited DIB production capacity and insufficient serial tank production lines are not guarantees that Russia will struggle to produce enough materiel to sustain its war effort at its current pace or in the long term.
• Russian forces made confirmed advances near Avdiivka and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid continued positional engagements along the entire frontline.
• CNN reported on February 11 that Russia has recruited as many as 15,000 Nepalis to fight in Ukraine, many of whom complained about poor conditions and lack of adequate training before their deployment to the most active frontlines in Ukraine.
• Russian authorities continue efforts to solidify social control over youth and students in occupied Ukraine and to culturally indoctrinate them into Russian identity and ideology.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-11-2024

This long lasting conflict reminds me of the one in Bosnia which occurred during the 1990's and they wanted or hoped the conflict to go on for decades, meaning I personally also "smell" a lot of money coming from all types of weapons being sold from both sides or from every corner during the Russia/Ukraine conflict. These days lots of "enemies" are selling weapons to each other, but the problem is that the ordinary citizen is always the so-called "collateral damage". One French reporter recently said that sooner or later the people will rise against the "elite" and the whole world will burn. I agree with him since it comes from man who lives in country where most of the world's revolutions started from.

The Western elites are def to blame in the rise of Putin as well as Xi. But the alternative is a autocracy/dictatorship.


NATO chief urges European allies to boost weapons to wartime levels
12h
©Anadolu via Getty Images / TCN
The secretary-general of NATO has warned that Europe must shift to wartime levels of weapons production in order to counter the threat from Russia. Jens Stoltenberg (pictured left) said that 'we need to reconstitute and expand our industrial base'to increase deliveries to Ukraine and refill weapons stocks. He pointed to Russia's invasion of Ukraine as proof that 'peace in Europe cannot be taken for granted'. Although he said NATO doesn't 'seek war' with Russia, 'we need to brace ourselves for potentially decades of confrontation'.

Don't forget the global trade the west needed China (production) and Russia (oil, gas) and made them very wealthy now that is back firing.

The US Military was in Afghanistan 20 years. It has been in Iraq, in one form or another since The Gulf War, and was in Viet Nam for almost thirty years. Perpetual war is what the US military does best, and Putin has put his military through the meat grinder at an unsustainable rate. As a result, Putin's axis of rogue states, ( Iran, N.Korea) have supported Russia directly with weapons, and are supporting proxy military organizations, such as the Houthi rebels, Hamas and Hezbollah, in order to distract focus by the West from the war in Ukraine.

Two sides of the same coin, right?! Thats how I look at the current situation...

NEWS
DEFENSE
Russia can sustain war effort for ‘two or three years,’ finds defense study
The war in Ukraine is prompting a huge jump in global military spending, finds the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Free article usually reserved for subscribers
TOPSHOT-UKRAINE-RUSSIA-CONFLICT-WAR
A defense study shows that Russia can sustain a war effort for another 2 to 3 years, but might have to value quantity over quality | Aris Messinis/AFP via Getty Images
FEBRUARY 13, 2024 5:34 PM CET
BY GIOVANNA COI

LONDON — Russia is spending around one-third of its budget on defense, but is burning through arms, ammunition and troops at an unsustainable pace, says a report published today.

Russia will be able to sustain its war effort in Ukraine for "two to three more years," says International Institute for Strategic Studies Director General Bastian Giegerich. "But in doing so, it will have to sacrifice quality for quantity."

The Military Balance report by the IISS, a London-based think tank, shows that Russia's invasion of Ukraine has unleashed a deluge of defense spending around the world — most of it from Russia's rivals.

Global defense spending increased by 9 percent in 2023 to exceed $2.2 trillion; NATO countries spent over half of that amount, with the U.S. leading the pack by a vast margin.

In Europe, countries ramped up spending to assist Ukraine, whose domestic defense industry has been severely damaged by the war.

But the ongoing war has "laid bare the challenges of scaling up production to keep pace with the conflict's demands" and is showing the cracks in European military preparedness, according to Giegerich.

Despite all the new spending, there is a problem in ramping up the West's military production capacity. In its report, the IISS noted the EU is on track to miss its target of delivering Ukraine 1 million 155-millimeter artillery shells by March.

Despite those shortcomings, Russia's continued war against Ukraine has pushed more European countries to meet their NATO defense target of spending at least 2 percent of GDP on the military. According to the report, 10 European NATO allies hit that goal last year, up from just two in 2014.

Ukraine is also in a desperate plight, but — for now — is getting crucial aid from its allies.

"Ukraine's losses also have been heavy and replenished largely through Western support," said Giegerich. "The effect has been to improve the quality of Ukrainian equipment, although at the cost of greater logistical complexity."

He added that continued Russian missile and drone attacks "are taking a toll on Ukraine."

The West "must decide whether to furnish Kyiv with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow rather than merely enough not to lose," he said.

While Russia is continuing to throw men and equipment against Ukraine's defenses, the cost is enormous, the think tank noted.

Henry Boyd, senior fellow for defense and military analysis at IISS, said that Russia was "increasingly dependent on Soviet-era legacy stores to meet the demand for new armored fighting vehicles and artillery pieces" and was "sacrificing training" to offset its troop losses on the battlefield.

Europe

Russia refits old tanks after losing 3,000 in Ukraine - research centre

By Mark Trevelyan and Greg Torode
February 13, 20249:52 AM ESTUpdated a day ago


Summary

• Russia mainly replacing lost tanks with refitted spares - IISS
• Ukraine faces major manpower and equipment challenges
• Think-tank sees no early end to military stalemate


LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters) - Russia has lost more than 3,000 tanks in Ukraine - the equivalent of its entire pre-war active inventory - but has enough lower-quality armoured vehicles in storage for years of replacements, a leading research centre said on Tuesday.
Ukraine has also suffered heavy loses since Russia invaded in February 2022, but Western military replenishments have allowed it to maintain inventories while upgrading quality, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said.

Even after the loss of so many tanks - including an estimated 1,120 in the past year - Russia still has about twice as many available for combat as Ukraine, according to the IISS's annual Military Balance, a key research tool for defence analysts.
Henry Boyd, the institute's senior fellow for military capability, said Russia had been roughly "breaking even" in terms of replacements. He estimated that it had put around 1,000 to 1,500 more tanks into service in the past year.

But of these, he said, 200 at most were newly built, and the large majority were refurbished older models.
"Moscow has been able to trade quality for quantity... by pulling thousands of older tanks out of storage at a rate that may, at times, have reached 90 tanks per month," said the report.
Russia's stored inventories meant Moscow "could potentially sustain around three more years of heavy losses and replenish tanks from stocks, even if at lower-technical standard, irrespective of its ability to produce new equipment".

Russia's defence ministry declined to comment.


TOUGH CHOICES FOR UKRAINE AND WEST


Nearly two years into the conflict, Ukraine and its Western partners face very difficult choices, the report said.
IISS senior land warfare analyst Ben Barry said Ukraine had tried to shield some of its younger troops - the average age of its infantry soldiers is reported to be in the early 40s - but may struggle to continue to do so.
"They have deliberately protected their youth, but the extent to which they can do that in future is doubtful if they are going to sustain their frontline strength," he said.

Ukraine, which failed to make progress in a counter-offensive last year and has just replaced its popular commander Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, is also in urgent need of new artillery supplies and air defence systems, while awaiting a major new U.S. aid package that has been held up by Republican opposition.
"Western governments find themselves once again in a position where they must decide whether to furnish Kyiv with enough weapons to deliver a decisive blow, rather than merely enough not to lose," IISS Director-General Bastian Giegerich said.

Russia, for its part, has placed its economy on a war footing and moved defence factories to round-the-clock production in three shifts.
"It's an astounding figure," said Singapore-based defence analyst Alexander Neill, referring to the estimate of 3,000 tanks lost.
"Some of those could have been older tanks, so one of the big questions is how many of its most advanced tanks does it have left for any major future offensives," added Neill, an adjunct fellow at Hawaii's Pacific Forum think-tank.
Given the losses sustained by both sides and the attritional character of the trench warfare, IISS experts said the current stalemate was likely to persist.
"Neither side can do a large-scale attack without incurring very heavy casualties, and that's likely to continue for the foreseeable future," IIIS land warfare analyst Barry said.
Reporting by Mark Trevelyan in London and Greg Torode in Hong Kong Editing by Gareth Jones
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...nks-ukraine-leading-military-2024-02-13/

Putin would rather have a 'more predictable' Biden than Trump

Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview on Wednesday that he prefers Joe Biden to Donald Trump but is willing to work with any US president.

Putin was asked by Russian interviewer Pavel Zarubin who is "better for us", Democrat Biden or Republican Trump? Although Putin said in his recent interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson that it does not matter for American foreign policy who is president, he still appeared to have a preference: "Biden. He is a more experienced, predictable person, a politician of the old school. But we will work with any American president in whom the American people have confidence."

RIP Navalny !

West holds Russia responsible for Navalny's death, Kremlin finds conclusions premature.

Klitschko: Putin would attack Alaska, Ukraine will not be the last
Former Ukrainian world boxing champion Wladimir Klitschko (47) told Bild that Russia would attack Alaska if the United States were weak enough.

SOURCE: TANJUG SATURDAY, FEBRUARY 10, 2024 | 23:23

He spoke about the interview of American journalist Tucker Carlson with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

"I saw the interview. Putin wants to take back history and rewrite it. If the US was weak enough, Putin would also want to attack the state of Alaska, and he would have a reason to do so: Alaska used to be part of Russia. That will probably have to go back to Russia "Putin's Russia is evil. If Ukraine falls, we will not be the last country to fall victim to the Russian invasion," Klitschko warned, adding that Germany also often forgets that the East was part of the Soviet empire.

He pointed out that Russian propaganda is persistent in lies, which can be seen in mass media sponsored by the Russian state, not only in Russia but also abroad.

"Unfortunately, this can be seen in Germany, in Europe, in the USA, it is a war not only with drones, but also in the media. The media is one of the most dangerous and strongest weapons that exists," concluded Klitschko, whose brother Vitaliy, also multiple world boxing champion, is current mayor of Kyiv.

Vladimir Putin, riding high before Navalny’s death, seems unstoppable

By Catherine Belton
Updated February 17, 2024 at 2:41 p.m. EST|Published February 17, 2024 at 10:47 a.m. EST

Russian President Vladimir Putin talks to students and industry workers Friday at the Stankomash machinery plant in Chelyabinsk, Russia, just as the death of opposition leader Alexei Navalny was being announced. (Alexander Ryumin/Pool/AFP/Getty Images)
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When Russian prison authorities announced the death of Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Putin’s most potent political opponent, the Russian president appeared to be overflowing with cheer.

Addressing a group of workers and students at a machinery plant in the Russian industrial city of Chelyabinsk on Friday, a smiling Putin, unsurprisingly, made no mention of Navalny’s death in a faraway Arctic prison and instead professed himself to be satisfied at the technological progress he had just seen.

“Forward! Success! To new borders!” Putin declared to one young worker who had proclaimed her admiration for the president.

With Navalny’s demise at age 47, further military assistance for Ukraine still blocked in Congress and Ukrainian forces retreating on the battlefield, a lot seems to be going Putin’s way, a month ahead of a presidential election in Russia that he is certain to win.

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Before the trip to Chelyabinsk, Putin was already riding high off an obsequious interview last week with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Even sanctions imposed by “our quasi-partners,” Putin boasted Friday, had resulted in a boost in orders for the plant that he was visiting.

Putin is now “outside of any competition,” said Andrei Kolesnikov, a Moscow-based senior research fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.

Navalny’s death not only removes a major — if distant — political thorn. It also is one more development that puts Putin’s potential detractors on notice.

Last summer, the swift and demonstrative downing of a jet carrying Yevgeniy Prigozhin, the Wagner mercenary commander who led a mutiny against Russia’s military leadership, sent a chilling signal to any opponents of the Kremlin’s current course.

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And earlier this month, Russian election authorities rapidly blocked a liberal antiwar candidate, Boris Nadezhdin, from the presidential ballot, claiming irregularities with the signatures required for candidacy. Nadezhdin stood virtually no chance of winning, but the Kremlin will not tolerate even the slightest show of dissent.

“Putin now remains alone,” Kolesnikov said. “He is solus rex, the lonely king. No one can stop him triumphing.”

Some still cautioned that Putin could overreach. They pointed to Navalny’s stature among some members of the Russian elite and the possibility that he will be viewed as a martyr, as well as the risk that the West could toughen its resolve against Putin’s regime — and perhaps even increase assistance to Ukraine.


Putin talks to students and industry workers at a plant in Chelyabinsk on Friday. (Alexander Ryumin/Pool/AFP/Getty Images)
Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of R.Politik, a Russian political consultancy now based in France, said it seemed clear Putin would crack down further on the remnants of Russia’s opposition, motivated by fears the West could exploit Navalny’s death to stir more unrest.

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“In Putin’s eyes, the risk of Western interference remains very serious,” she said.

But for Russia’s beleaguered opposition, there’s little left for Putin to do to completely cripple the movement.

In January, Navalny had called for a nationwide protest on the day of the March presidential election and for voters to gather at the polls at noon as a sign of dissent against Putin.

But analysts and opposition politicians said it wasn’t clear how many would have responded to the call given fears over Putin’s increasingly repressive tactics. Still, they said, Navalny’s death may be a sign that the Kremlin didn’t want to leave anything to chance.

Authorities in Moscow “are very sensitive now to any details,” Kolesnikov added.

The muted display of mourning for Navalny in Moscow, with few willing to dare challenge the authorities by leaving flowers, was a sign of Russia’s transformation since the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

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Thousands had taken to Moscow’s streets to protest Navalny’s arrest on his return to Russia in January 2021 in scenes that some observers likened to the August 2020 protests in Minsk that threatened to topple the Belarusian president.

But any protesters in Moscow today would face “an enormous mass of armed people,” said Gennady Gudkov, a senior Russian opposition politician now in exile in Paris.

“Street protests can only work if millions come out,” Gudkov said. “But because people are not organized and don’t have any resources, or newspapers, or political leaders or parties or trade unions, there is nothing.”

Others said the death in jail of such a prominent and admired political figure could still create an array of problems for Putin.

Navalny’s “unmatched recognition, significance to the elites and involvement in domestic politics distinguished him from any other opposition figure,” Stanovaya posted on X, previously known as Twitter. “This creates a significant political problem for the regime — they will have to deal with Navalny’s legacy,” she said.

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And in Moscow, some Russian business executives were nervously watching whether inroads made in winning over part of the U.S. Republican Party to Russia’s point of view could come undone as a result of the death.

Already on Friday, GOP members began denouncing members of the party who had recently sided with Putin, while President Biden railed against Republicans for blocking passage of a bill that included billions in aid for Ukraine.

“Putin does not need this now,” said one Moscow business executive, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters. “It will now be very difficult for the Republican Party to object.”

Opposition politicians called for the West to strengthen its response to the Putin regime. “The world should understand that Putin is not a human being. He is a threat to civilization,” Gudkov said. “Without the collapse of the Putin regime, the world will not be able to live peacefully.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/17/vladimir-putin-russia-alexei-navalny/

Russia Ukraine conflict
Putin calls capture of Avdiivka an ‘important victory’
Russia
AFP
Published: 18 February ,2024: 12:19 AM GST
Updated: 18 February ,2024: 12:39 AM GST

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Saturday hailed his army’s capture of the eastern Ukrainian town of Avdiivka as an “important victory,” following a hasty withdrawal by Kyiv’s forces.

The capture of the town marks the most significant territorial gain for Russia’s forces since the seizure of Bakhmut last May.

“The President congratulated our military and fighters on such an important victory, on such a success,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told state news agencies.

For the latest updates on the Russia-Ukraine war, visit our dedicated page.

Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu informed Putin about the seizure of the town in a meeting at the Kremlin, his ministry said in a statement.

Avdiivka was a “powerful defensive hub” for Ukraine’s armed forces and its capture would “move the front line away from Donetsk (city),” reducing Ukraine’s ability to shell the Russian stronghold, the defense ministry said.

Ukraine’s Donetsk region is one of four Russia claims to have annexed.

Moscow launched an intense assault to capture Avdiivka, which lies around 10 kilometers (6 miles) north of Donetsk city, last October, throwing massive resources of equipment and manpower at the town.

The battle for Avdiivka became one of the bloodiest episodes in the two-year conflict.

Kyiv had earlier announced its withdrawal from the town, which it said was taken to reduce military casualties at a time of stretched resources.

“At the moment, measures are being taken to finally clear the town of militants and to block the Ukrainian units that have left the town and are holed up in the Avdiivka coke plant” to the north, Russia’s defense ministry said.

Moscow is back on the offensive in eastern Ukraine, with Kyiv suffering from a shortage of ammunition and manpower amid hold-ups to much-needed Western aid and a difficult drive to recruit more soldiers.

For all the latest headlines follow our Google News channel online or via the app.

The front lines have barely moved in more than a year -- with the exception of Russia’s capture of Bakhmut last May.

But concern is growing in Kyiv and the West about Ukraine’s ability to hold out against Russian forces for much longer without unlocking a $60-billion military aid package from the United States.

Read more:

Ammunition shortage hurting Ukraine, Zelenskyy tells Munich meeting

Ukrainian, Russian troops fighting ‘fierce battles’ inside Avdiivka: General

Special Coverage Live session with German Chancellor Scholz from Munich Security Conference

In the long term Democracies will always be victorious over Autocracies.

Putin Says Ukraine 'Matter of Life and Death' for Russia

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024...tter-of-life-and-death-for-russia-a84134

RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT, FEBRUARY 18, 2024
Feb 18, 2024 - ISW Press

Download the PDF






















Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, February 18, 2024



Karolina Hird, Angelica Evans, Christina Harward, Nicole Wolkov, and Frederick W. Kagan



February 18, 2024, 8pm ET



Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.



Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.



Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.



Note: The data cut-off for this product was 2:00pm ET on February 18. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the February 19 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.



Ukrainian forces will likely be able to establish new defensive lines not far beyond Avdiivka, which will likely prompt the culmination of the Russian offensive in this area. Avdiivka and the subsequent Russian claim of control over the entirety of Avdiivka, ISW, and several Ukrainian and Western sources assessed that delays in Western security assistance, namely artillery ammunition and critical air defense systems, inhibited Ukrainian troops from defending against Russian advances in Avdiivka.[5] Critical Ukrainian shortages in Western-provided equipment and fears of the complete cessation of US military aid have forced Ukrainian troops to husband materiel along the entire front, which has likely encouraged Russian forces to exploit the situation and launch limited offensive operations outside of the Avdiivka area, which they have done along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border area since early January 2024 and in western Zaporizhia Oblast over the past 48 hours. These Russian offensive efforts will likely hinder Ukrainian forces from preparing personnel and materiel for renewed counteroffensive operations, emphasizing the operational disadvantages that Ukraine will suffer if it simply digs in and attempts to defend for the rest of 2024 as some Western states and analysts advocate.

Russian forces are likely seeking to take advantage of two windows of opportunity with the recent initiation of their simultaneous offensive operations—the period before the upcoming spring thaw and the nuanced dynamics of Western aid provision. Ukraine is heading into its rasputitsa season, the Spring period in which the frozen winter ground thaws and makes mechanized movement more difficult throughout the theater, thereby slowing (but notably not entirely stopping) offensive operations along the frontline. Some Russian milbloggers are already reporting that mud in southern Ukraine is inhibiting Ukrainian forces from bringing new reserves to Zaporizhia Oblast to reinforce against Russian offensive efforts, and these conditions will also likely slow Russian offensive momentum as the weather continues to warm.[7] Russian forces are likely trying to secure tactical advances throughout the theater while the terrain and weather generally favor offensive movement in order to exhaust and attrit defending Ukrainian forces as well as to secure favorable positions for future operations before the rasputitsa begins in earnest. The Russian military command, furthermore, likely realizes that security assistance from Ukraine’s European partners, particularly promised European deliveries of artillery ammunition, will begin to have effects in the medium term, likely before Fall 2024, and is trying to take advantage of Ukraine’s current shell hunger to pressure Ukrainian troops throughout the theater while Ukraine experiences a relative (but likely temporary) artillery disadvantage.[8] The eventual provision of more European security assistance to Ukraine, however, will not fill the gap in critical equipment that the full cessation of US military assistance would create, particularly with advanced air defense systems such as Patriot surface-to-air missiles. The scaling-up of European security assistance is necessary but not sufficient for Ukrainian forces to stabilize the front, let alone to regain the initiative in areas where Russian forces are pressing.

The Russian capture of Avdiivka after four months of intensified offensive operations exemplifies the way that Russian forces pursue offensive operations that do not necessarily set conditions for wider operational gains but still force Ukraine to commit manpower and materiel to defensive operations. Russian forces have been fighting near Avdiivka for most of the full-scale invasion thus far and intensified operations to capture the city in mid-October 2023.[9] In the subsequent four months since October, Russian forces managed to advance nearly nine kilometers in Avdiivka according to Russian estimates.[10] Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Commander Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi stated on February 18 that during this four month period, Russian forces lost over 47,000 personnel, 364 tanks, 248 artillery systems, 748 armored fighting vehicles, and five aircraft.[11] Russian forces were also unable to complete a full operational encirclement of Avdiivka within that four-month window, and Ukrainian forces appear to have been able to withdraw in mainly good order. A Russian milblogger and volunteer with the 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (2nd Luhansk People’s Republic Army Corps [LNR AC]) remarked on the rate of Russian losses compared with the territory gained on February 17, suggesting that even some Russian sources are cognizant of the extremely high price these limited Russian gains have cost.[12] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces suffered 16,000 “irretrievable losses” (likely those killed in action, whereas Tarnavskyi’s estimate may have also included wounded) in the Avdiivka direction since October 2023.[13] The milblogger also sardonically noted that the tank regiments and tank divisions that were operating near Avdiivka “distinguished” themselves by advancing a few kilometers in four months and taking massive personnel losses.[14] By contrast, according to the milblogger, Ukrainian forces suffered far fewer losses and were able to withdraw to prepared defensive positions mostly on their own terms, meaning that exhausted and attrited Russian forces will now have to once again fight Ukrainian troops on new lines. Russian forces succeeded in drawing Ukrainian forces to Avdiivka and away from other areas of the front and forcing Ukrainians to use up already limited Ukrainian stores of critical equipment but did so without securing major operational gains. This outcome is likely to recur in ongoing offensive operations on the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border line and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Russian forces have not yet demonstrated an ability to secure operationally significant gains or conduct rapid mechanized maneuver across large swaths of territory, and the capture of Avdiivka should not be taken as demonstrating this capability. ISW distinguishes between tactical gains, relevant at the tactical level of war in the near vicinity of the fighting, and operational gains which are significant at the operational level of war and affect large sectors of the entire front line When ISW assesses that a given advance has or has not made “operationally significant” gains we are referring to this distinction. Since the intensification of Russian offensive efforts in Avdiivka in October 2023, Russian forces managed to traverse fewer than 10 kilometers through and around Avdiivka. Avdiivka is nearly 60 kilometers from the Donetsk Oblast border, however. Russian forces would need to conduct widespread and competent cross-country maneuvers to reach the borders of the oblast in a period of less than years and would have to go even further and through more fortified territory to reach the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk area in northern Donetsk Oblast. Russian forces have not displayed the capability to conduct such maneuvers, either near Avdiivka or in any other sector of the front. Russian offensive efforts to take Kupyansk could plausibly force Ukrainians to the left bank of the Oskil River, but Russian forces in this area have remained largely impaled on small tactical positions in the Kupyansk direction for months.[15] Russian offensive efforts south of Orikhiv are unlikely to advance past Orikhiv itself or even to reach Orikhiv quickly, given the climatological challenges discussed above.

Ukrainian officials are investigating two instances of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on prisoners of war (POWs) in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Prosecutor’s Office reported that it is investigating footage published on February 18 showing Russian forces executing six injured Ukrainian POWs near Avdiivka and footage showing Russian forces executing two Ukrainian POWs near Vesele (northwest of Bakhmut).[16] The killing of POWs violates Article III of the Geneva Convention on the treatment of POWs.

Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for failing to recognize 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps (DNR AC) Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Milchakov and the “Veterany” Assault Brigade (Volunteer Corps) for aiding in the Russian capture of Avdiivka, highlighting continued tension between Russian regular and irregular forces. A prominent Russian milblogger complained that Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Russian Central Grouping of Forces commander Colonel General Andrei Mordvichev for capturing Avdiivka, but not Milchakov, who the milblogger claimed has led the 1st DNR AC since its previous commander’s death in Popasna, Luhansk Oblast.[18] Russian milbloggers also complained that Putin and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu did not credit the “Veterany” Assault Brigade with the Russian capture of Avdiivka, although noted that the Russian MoD later edited its statement to credit the “Veterany” Assault Brigade.[19] The Russian MoD may have edited its statement to credit the ”Veterany” Assault Brigade in an effort to prevent wider complaints from spreading in the Russian ultranationalist information space and appeal to Russian volunteer servicemen (dobrovoltsy). Tension between Russian regular and irregular forces – especially the 1st DNR Army Corps and DNR-affiliated formations – has continued throughout the war despite, and likely in part because of, ongoing Russian efforts to formalize irregular formations.

The Washington Post reported that the Kremlin has been orchestrating a large-scale effort to spread disinformation in the Ukrainian media since January 2023, corroborating recent Ukrainian official reports about Russian information operations that use fake Telegram channels to infiltrate the Ukrainian information space. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on February 18 that Denmark is donating its “entire artillery” to Ukraine.[24] The Danish government had not issued an official statement with details of the announcement at the time of this writing, and it is unclear if Denmark will give Ukraine all of its artillery guns, all of its artillery ammunition stocks, or both.

The US is reportedly turning to India and China to engage Russia about Russia’s reported intent to launch an unspecified anti-satellite nuclear weapon into space. The New York Times (NYT) reported on February 17 that US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken spoke with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar at the Munich Security Conference about the possibility of Russia deploying a nuclear weapon into space that would, if detonated, disrupt American, Chinese, and Indian satellites and affect global communications systems. Blinken reportedly urged Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to speak to Russian President Vladimir Putin about the matter. The NYT reported that Wang reiterated the importance of the peaceful use of outer space for China. The NYT stated that US officials agree that if Russia deployed a nuclear weapon into orbit in space, Russia would likely not detonate it but would keep it in low orbit as a deterrence measure. Reuters reported on February 15, however, that analysts following Russian space programs indicated that Russia is likely trying to deploy a nuclear powered-device to carry out attacks against satellites and not a weapon with a nuclear warhead.[25] Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with Wang on February 17 to discuss Chinese-Ukrainian trade and the need for stable peace in Ukraine, suggesting that China is hesitant to support Russia‘s war in Ukraine at the level Russia desires, as ISW continues to assess.


Key Takeaways:

• Ukrainian forces will likely be able to establish new defensive lines not far beyond Avdiivka, which will likely prompt the culmination of the Russian offensive in this area.
• Delays in Western security assistance to Ukraine are likely helping Russia launch opportunistic offensive operations along several sectors of the frontline in order to place pressure on Ukrainian forces along multiple axes.
• Russian forces are likely seeking to take advantage of two windows of opportunity with the recent initiation of their simultaneous offensive operations—the period before the upcoming spring thaw and the nuanced dynamics of Western aid provision.
• The Russian capture of Avdiivka after four months of intensified offensive operations exemplifies the way that Russian forces pursue offensive operations that do not necessarily set conditions for wider operational gains but still force Ukraine to commit manpower and materiel to defensive operations.
• Russian forces have not yet demonstrated an ability to secure operationally significant gains or conduct rapid mechanized maneuver across large swaths of territory, and the capture of Avdiivka should not be taken as demonstrating this capability.
• Ukrainian officials are investigating two instances of apparent Russian violations of the Geneva Convention on prisoners of war (POWs) in occupied Donetsk Oblast.
• Russian milbloggers criticized the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) for failing to recognize 1st Donetsk People’s Republic Army Corps (DNR AC) Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Milchakov and the “Veterany” Assault Brigade (Volunteer Corps) for aiding in the Russian capture of Avdiivka, highlighting continued tension between Russian regular and irregular forces.
• The Washington Post reported that the Kremlin has been orchestrating a large-scale effort to spread disinformation in the Ukrainian media since January 2023, corroborating recent Ukrainian official reports about Russian information operations that use fake Telegram channels to infiltrate the Ukrainian information space.
• Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen announced on February 18 that Denmark is donating its “entire artillery” to Ukraine.
• The US is reportedly turning to India and China to engage Russia about Russia’s reported intent to launch an unspecified anti-satellite nuclear weapon into space.
• Russian forces recently made a confirmed advance in western Zaporizhia amid continued positional engagements along the entire line of contact on February 18.
• Russian occupation officials continue to use educational programs as means of Russifying occupied Ukraine.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-18-2024

Dont get me wrong but if I had an enemy who is known for killing political opponents, maybe Im going to kill one of them myself so I can blame my enemy....just my two cents

Russia's sudden transition from communism to free market capitalism was brutal, that formed Russia's reality today. Yeltsin did well in the Russian countryside, but Moscow politics were a size too big for him.

Only a top-tier drinker could gulp down a fucking pint within 15 seconds. Respect!

LMAO I remember that clip !

Russian pilot who defected to Ukraine shot dead in Spain -reports

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...aine-shot-dead-spain-reports-2024-02-19/