Extracts: Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh was the primary negotiator with Qatar and the US even as Hamas Gaza chief Yahya Sinwar makes the final decisions because he controls the Israeli hostages deep in his underground tunnel world in Gaza
Also, while there is a disagreement about who was more pragmatic, some argued that at least recently, Haniyeh was believed to be more pragmatic than Sinwar
Since the Israeli government still wants to get the hostages back through a deal, Haniyeh’s killing was only partially directed at Hamas – in the sense of trying to convince Sinwar that all of Hamas’s leadership could be killed if he does not compromise soon on some of the issues still in dispute
The much more important address of killing Haniyeh however was in fact, Iran
Israel, presuming it killed Haniyeh, wanted to send a message to the Islamic Republic that its patience is wearing thin for Tehran using proxies to try to bloody Israel, while the ayatollahs think they can sit watching from the sidelines untouched
Until now and although experts universally agree that Hamas’s and Hezbollah’s confrontations with Israel have been bankrolled, inspired and often planned in Tehran, the only time since October 7, 2023 that Israel struck Iran in its territory was on April 19, 2024 in what most considered to be a modest response to a massive attempted attack by Tehran five days earlier
Iran had launched about 350 aerial threats, including ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles, whereas Jerusalem’s retaliation sufficed with one pinpoint strike to destroy the Islamic Republic’s S-300 antiaircraft missile system, central to protecting its nuclear site at Natanz
Observers were split about whether Israel’s pinpoint attack, which showed that it could easily have struck Iran’s nuclear program at Natanz as a warning shot, had restored a balance of deterrence with Tehran or whether the ayatollahs viewed the Jewish state’s counterstrike as weak in light of the vast attack they had brought down on Israel
After Iranian proxies from Yemen recently killed an Israeli in a Tel Aviv drone strike and Hezbollah killed 12 Israeli Druze in Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights, it seemed that Iran had not gotten the message and felt it still had impunity
Taking out Haniyeh while he was in Tehran was an unmistakable signal to disabuse Iran of the notion that it has immunity when it uses proxies to harm Israel
So, Israel has in three weeks, with three attacks, set back Hamas’s and Hezbollah’s current and more importantly, future military rebuilding capabilities. Furthermore, the ayatollahs now know that if their proxies cross redlines, the retaliation may end up on Tehran’s doorstep and not just against its proxies
Whether these high-stake attacks will lead to a much larger war between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah or whether it will eventually bring Tehran to help bring its proxies to a ceasefire with Israel, is still an open question
