Who is new Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar?
Sky News by Lara Keay 06 August 2024

Extracts:
The new leader of Hamas's political bureau Yahya Sinwar has led Hamas within Gaza since 2017 having joined its ranks in the early 1980s

Believed to be the architect of the 07 October 2023 attacks, Sinwar is Israel's most wanted - a "dead man walking" according to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who at one point claimed to have him "surrounded and isolated" in a bunker

• Learnt fluent Hebrew in prison

In 1988 Sinwar helped abduct and kill two Israeli Defence Force soldiers, which saw him sentenced to 22 years in an Israeli prison

Despite being incarcerated, Sinwar used the time to his advantage - learning fluent Hebrew to better understand his enemy and ascending to become leader of Hamas prisoners in Israel

Dr Ahron Bregman, a former Israeli army major - and now senior teaching fellow in war studies and the Arab-Israeli conflict at King's College London says:

• Architect of the 07 October 2023 massacre

Yahya Sinwar was the architect of the October attack, according to Israel

Israel's chief military spokesman, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, also blamed Sinwar for the October attack and said Israel would continue to pursue him

• Brutal leadership

Dr Bregman describes Sinwar as a "man of few words" and a "natural leader… charismatic, secretive and manipulative"

Yahya Sinwar, with his military background, Sinwar is seen as someone capable of uniting Hamas's armed and political wings

Although Sinwar's methods have been "barbaric" Dr Bregman believes it will be seen "from a Palestinian point of view, in spite of the terrible price they are paying now as a great victory" "Sinwar has earned a place in the pantheon of great Palestinian leaders" Dr Bregman adds

As leader, Sinwar has increased the group's use of force, stepping up protests and rocket fire at the Israeli border
Testimonies from people on the ground in Gaza however suggest his violent methods have left many of them disillusioned with Hamas

• 'Mythical figure' in Palestinian history

With Israel's promise to destroy Hamas and all of its leaders, Dr Bregman believes they will "get him in the end"
[Maybe so -- However before "Israel gets Sinwar" (If) with Sinwar's unremitting dedication to the eventual destruction of Israel....]

Ideas and ideals matter; or at least, we should hope so

If Gazans Were Called "Hamassians" Instead...
ECONLOGPOST by Pierre Lemieux 27 October 2023

Extracts:
If residents of Gaza were called “Hamassians” it would be much more difficult to distinguish them, analytically and morally, from their thuggish rulers

It would be more difficult to forget that whatever the proportion of “Hamassians” who support in some way the local tyrant, some Gazans are more its prisoners or internal hostages and don’t deserve any collective punishment on its behalf

If they are used as human shields by their own tyrant, of course, it is not the fault of an enemy waging a just war tantamount to self-defense—but the theoretical difference between that and a collective punishment must still be maintained

War is brutal hell indeed

I agree 1,000% Israeli allies step-up -- Please save Israel the world's only Jewish state from Hit and Run brutal terror from ALL sides of this tiny nation

"this thug Sinwar's" calling Palestinian deaths “necessary sacrifices.” in his unremitting dedication to the eventual destruction of Israel

Sinwar has indicated that he is willing to die in the fighting hiding in a tunnel under Gaza

Sinwar as political boss of Hamas is a mistake, he is no diplomat that is what they need unless they want to continue their war.

"this thug Sinwar" is barbaric, brutal, evil, frighteningly and horrifyingly 'good' in all things terror

He thinks as Israel thinks -- Now on that basis, anything's possible as he showed as the Architect of the October massacre

“We have the capabilities to continue fighting for months.” Does Israel?

“We make the headlines only with blood,” Sinwar had said "No blood, no news.”
I reckon, he is exactly what their terror doctor ordered for the top spot, to continue their brutal war

If his own people Palestinian deaths are “necessary sacrifices.” I reckon, it is Israel who are f--ked unless it's allies step-up

Real worry -- Israel is defending not winning and Time is running out.
I too doubt, Israel can keep up this defending, much longer -- needs to win but cannot do it on its own

With Israel's promise to destroy Hamas and all of its leaders, Dr Bregman believes they will "get him in the end"

ICC prosecutor insists court has power to issue warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant and Sinwar

Demanding urgent ruling, Karim Khan asserts ‘it’s settled law’ that The Hague can order arrest of Israeli leaders, rejects claim that provision of Oslo Accords trumps its authority

Khan called on a panel of ICC pretrial judges to “urgently render its decisions” on the requests he filed in May for warrants for PM Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and three leaders of Hamas, two of whom have since been killed. It remains unclear when judges will rule on Khan’s request for warrants.

Sinwar, Hamas’s top official in Gaza who masterminded the October 7 attack, was subsequently named the terror group’s new leader

Israel is not a member of the court, so even if the arrest warrants are issued, Netanyahu and Gallant do not face any immediate risk of prosecution. But the threat of arrest could make it difficult for the Israeli leaders to travel abroad.

Many of the legal arguments filed to ICC judges in recent weeks focussed largely on the issue of whether the court’s power to issue warrants for Israeli leaders is overruled by a provision of the 1993 Oslo Accords peace deal.

As part of the deal, the Palestinians agreed that they don’t have criminal jurisdiction over Israeli nationals.
Khan insisted the argument that the accords could nullify the court’s jurisdiction is “without merit.”

Three senior Israeli officers killed in Gaza

Three senior Israeli reserve officers were killed in fighting in the Gaza Strip on Friday, the Israeli army said. They were two major generals and a lieutenant colonel. The army gave no further information on Saturday, except that the three were killed in "the middle of Gaza."

In recent weeks, fighting between the army and Hamas has flared up in the central Gaza Strip, with heavy fighting taking place around the city of Deir el Balah.

Since Israel invaded Gaza on October 27, 338 soldiers have been killed, according to army figures. On the Palestinian side, more than 40,000 people have been killed, according to the Gaza Ministry of Health. The ministry makes no distinction between civilians and Hamas terrorists. Israel says it has killed or captured about 14,000 fighters.

it's official israel declared a war on hezbollah and went for preemptive strike

Will they go inside Lebanon like 2006?

Israel has often misjudged the possible outcome of a war with Hezbollah, such as in 2006. The goal was to destroy Hezbollah. After more than a month, a ceasefire was reached and the Israeli army withdrew, without a clear victory.

Hezbollah has only grown stronger since then. But the Israeli army hasn't been sitting still in recent years either. It will hit back hard and Hezbollah knows it won't win.

well i don't think so
both sides know they have a lot to lose in a scenrio like that...
lebanon will look like gaza, and israel will go back 50 years.

but if iran will give them the order to go on full scale war and will help them (because i can't see iran losing 2 proxies in one year without at least saving nasralla's ass from being defeated)

From: The Economist August 25, 2024
Israel and Hezbollah play with fire

They both attempt escalating attacks that fall short of all-out war

In a Series of air and missile strikes in the early hours of August 25th Israel and Hezbollah, the Iran-backed militia in Lebanon, brought to a boil their simmering conflict. For now, at least, the strikes seem calibrated to avoid all-out war but it is a risky business.

Just before 5am two waves of Israeli warplanes bombed dozens of Hezbollah’s missile-launch sites throughout southern Lebanon. Minutes later Hezbollah launched at least 200 rockets and drones towards northern Israel.

Israel’s Iron Dome missile-defence system intercepted most of these.
The few that got through caused little damage and no Israeli casualties.

From: CBS News August 25, 2024
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes before pulling back, jolting region amid Gaza cease-fire talks

Israel and the Hezbollah militant group launched their heaviest exchange of fire after months of strikes and counterstrikes.
By mid-morning Sunday, it appeared to have ended, with both sides saying they only aimed at military targets.

Authorities in Lebanon said the Israeli strikes killed three people, while Israel said one of its soldiers was killed.

President Biden is closely monitoring the events in Israel and Lebanon. "At his direction, senior U.S. officials have been communicating continuously with their Israeli counterparts," National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett said in a statement.

By mid-morning, it appeared that the exchange had ended. At least three people were killed in the strikes in Lebanon, while Israel said one service member, Petty Officer 1st Class David Moshe Ben Shitrit, 21, was killed in northern Israel. Two other soldiers were "lightly and moderately injured," Israel said.

Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, an Israeli military spokesman, said Hezbollah had intended to hit targets in northern and central Israel. He said initial assessments found "very little damage" in Israel, but that the military remained on high alert.

He said around 100 Israeli aircraft took part in Sunday's strikes.

"Hezbollah managed to launch only about two hundred and thirty rockets and over twenty unmanned aerial vehicles," Hagari said on Sunday. "Most of them either fell on their way to Israeli territory, landed in open areas, or were intercepted by Israeli Air Force defense systems and Israeli Navy ships."

Hezbollah said its attack involved more than 320 Katyusha rockets aimed at multiple sites in Israel and a "large number" of drones.
It said the operation was targeting "a qualitative Israeli military target that will be announced later" as well as "enemy sites and barracks and Iron Dome (missile defense) platforms."

Hezbollah later announced the end of what it said was the first stage of retaliatory strikes, which it said would allow it to launch more attacks deeper into Israel. But a later statement said "military operations for today have been completed."

Perhaps Israeli allies behind the scenes are standing shoulder to shoulder, with Israel, together, protecting Israeli people, Israeli territorial integrity and sovereignty. Israel also seems to have endless arsenal....

The allies are always quick, perhaps too quick! to state
Israel and Hezbollah exchange strikes before pulling back
CBS News 25 August 2024

Extracts:
A spokesman for the National Security Council, Sean Savett, said President Biden was "closely monitoring" the events in Israel and Lebanon and that he has been engaged with his national security team throughout the evening

"At Biden's direction, senior US officials have been communicating continuously with their Israeli counterparts" Savett said. "We will keep supporting Israel's right to defend itself and we will keep working for regional stability"

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, about Israel's defenses.
Austin also ordered the presence of two Carrier Strike Groups to remain in the region, the Pentagon said on Sunday

The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General CQ Brown, is on a visit to the region that is expected to take him to Israel, Egypt and Jordan

Michael Herzog, Israeli ambassador to the US said on "Face the Nation with Margaret Brennan" that Herzog believes the "success of our operation yesterday prevented an escalation to a major war"


The US is hoping that all sides can stop escalating since both Israel and Hezbollah are publicly claiming success and the initial assessment is that the blowback from this strike is contained

An Israeli official also told CBS News that it appears Hezbollah is deterred

cat-and-mouse games.... Life and Death

Israel may have blunted Hezbollah's attack but other threats from Iran and Yemen remain
ABC Australia By Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek 26 August 2024

Extracts:
Described in 2018 as the "world's most heavily armed non-state actor" and listed as a terrorist organisation by Australia, the United States, Britain and others, Hezbollah has a significant arsenal that includes long-range and guided missiles

*If Israel's military is telling the truth, by launching a purported "pre-emptive strike" on Hezbollah missile sites, the Jewish state has had a great intelligence success and blunted an attack it had been fearing for weeks

Hezbollah's promised revenge was short and caused one Israeli death

But as is usually the case between these enemies, it is possible for both sides to claim victory

• What we know — and don't know — about the strikes

Hezbollah one of the world's most prominent Shia organisations, says its attack was always going to be focused on specific military sites, mostly near the border with Lebanon and that Israel prevented nothing

The group's leader, Hassan Nasrallah, said Israel bombed "empty valleys" and only damaged two fixed launch sites that had already been evacuated

"It [Israel's strikes] had no impact whatsoever on our military operation today," he said in an hour-long speech that was part apology to the Lebanese people and part justification for making them suffer 11 months of Israeli retaliatory strikes since Hezbollah starting firing rockets and drones at Israel in support of Hamas last October 2023

The Israeli military said its strikes yesterday prevented thousands of missiles, mostly short-range, from being launched
 
Israel has been preparing for Hezbollah's "revenge" for more three weeks now and for a potential war with the group since October 2023

The Israelis have long considered Hezbollah a far bigger threat than Hamas in Gaza, focusing more attention and resources on *finding and tracking their weapons, so it does seem more likely that Israel's version of events is true

More cat-and-mouse games....

Israel may have blunted Hezbollah's attack but other threats from Iran and Yemen remain
ABC Australia By Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek 26 August 2024

Hassan Nasrallah said Hezbollah will evaluate the impact of the Arbaeen operation and decide later.
Nasrallah appeared to be saying Hezbollah has finished — at least for now
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, conscious that tens of thousands of Israelis remain displaced from their homes in the North, had a different view
The big question is whether this is the end of the matter

It's difficult to verify whether each side has seriously hurt the other or if they even wanted to....

Reporting of any damage to Israeli military installations is censored and it is far too dangerous to approach Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon to assess if they've been hit

Israel and Hezbollah also have a history of publicly talking up their attacks while privately indicating they do not wish to escalate further

Hezbollah might have finished its retaliation but Iran's promised "harsh punishment" for the killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on 31 July 2024 is yet to come

Nasrallah indicated both Iran and the Houthi militia in Yemen, which Iran supports, are planning their own attacks on Israel
So Israel may have blunted one attack but other threats remain

One reason Hezbollah said it waited so long to attack was that it wanted to give the Gaza ceasefire negotiations the best chance to succeed

If a ceasefire was signed between Israel and Hamas in Gaza,
1. Hezbollah could claim its pressure on Israel worked and could cease its attacks
2. Iran could also say it did not want to jeopardise any truce

The question is then what Israel would consider a victory

From: UK news platform Channel 4 August 26, 2024

A high-ranking Israeli official, Lieutenant Colonel Sarit Zehavi, a former intelligence official, says -- not Rocket science
1. attacks like the ones seen this past weekend will persist until Hezbollah is dismantled -- been in existence since 1982 only 42 years!
2. eliminating capabilities of Hezbollah will make Israelis more safe,”
3. prosperity will only come once all the known terrorist organisations threatening her country’s borders are extinguished.
4. “It doesn’t make Israelis more safe by eliminating senior commanders -- True dime a dozen indeed


The United States is Israel’s top military supplier. However...


The allies are always quick, perhaps too quick! to state
A US defence official said Washington had helped track the Hezbollah barrage although it was not involved in shooting down any drones or rockets or in the strikes on Lebanon.

The Flightradar24 tracking website on Sunday afternoon showed a US Navy surveillance drone had been flying over nearby Mediterranean waters.

Israel says situation on Lebanon border 'not sustainable'
Reuters 27 August 2024
Reporting by James Mackenzie. Additional reporting by Maytaal Angel; Editing by Andrew Cawthorne and Rod Nickel

Summary

• Israel says Hezbollah suffered 'crushing blow'
• State support for Israeli evacuees extended to 30 September 2024
• Iran says it is not looking to fuel regional tensions

More cat-and-mouse games.... Catch me if you can

JERUSALEM: Israeli officials and media reacted with satisfaction on Monday after a long-expected missile attack by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah movement appeared to have been largely thwarted by pre-emptive Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon

Both Hezbollah and Israel seemed content to let Sunday's attack, in retaliation for the killing of a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut last month, count as settled for the moment

Israeli government spokesperson David Mencer said Hezbollah had suffered a "crushing blow" from the Israeli strikes but that a longer lasting solution was still needed

"The current situation is not sustainable" Mencer told a briefing, referring to the tens of thousands evacuated from their homes in northern Israel, a situation mirrored on the other side of the border in southern Lebanon "Israel will do its duty and return its population to our sovereign territory"

Hopes that children might return for the start of the new school year in September have evaporated, with financial assistance for residents evacuated from their homes extended to September

among others,
1. who is providing financial assistance to the Palestinians
2. whose duty to return the tens of thousands of Palestinians shunted between “safe” zones multiple times, to their homes
3. when might the Palestinian children return to their schools

However there was some optimism that the exchange of fire, which did not cause the kind of extensive damage many in Israel had feared, might help talks aimed at halting the fighting in Gaza and bringing Israeli and foreign hostages home

Palestinian militant group Hamas has said it will not agree to a deal that allows Israeli troops to remain in the band of territory at the southern edge of the Gaza Strip along the border with Egypt. But some commentators said Sunday's exchange of fire might prove that Hamas lacked the kind of support it would need to push the conflict outside Gaza

"Maybe - just maybe - Israel's success at foiling Hezbollah’s retaliation might pave the way to concessions by Hamas in the negotiations over a hostage deal, given the failed bid to see the war expanded to engulf the entire region" wrote Avi Issacharoff, a commentator in Israel's biggest-selling daily Yedioth Ahronoth

Early Sunday, around 100 Israeli jets hit dozens of Hezbollah launch sites in southern Lebanon, destroying thousands of rockets the military said were aimed at Israel. Hezbollah did launch hundreds of missiles, but most were intercepted or fell in open areas

Exchanges of fire continued on Monday but were muted by comparison

Israel said it struck a Hezbollah military structure in southern Lebanon, and that a number of suspicious aerial targets had entered its territory from Lebanon. Most of the targets were intercepted and there were no injuries

Hezbollah denied that its response on Sunday to the killing of its senior commander Fuad Shukr had been defused but said the operation had been completed successfully, drawing hopes that a line might be drawn under the incident, at least for now

Iran, which has vowed retaliation against Israel for the assassination in Tehran last month of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, also said it was not looking to fuel regional tensions

Israel says US shipments of arms and equipment during war exceed 50,000 tons
The Times of Israel by Emanuel Fabian and TOI staff 26 August 2024

Extracts:

• Biden administration’s material support for IDF continuing despite some calls to end military aid

Why publicize such a controversial, contentious and divisive issue?

500 transport planes and 107 ships have delivered more than 50,000 tons of armaments and military equipment from the United States to Israel since the start of the war in Gaza last October 2023 the Defense Ministry said on Monday

The military equipment delivered to Israel since the beginning of the war includes “armored vehicles, munitions, ammunition, personal protection gear and medical equipment” according to the ministry

The deliveries are “crucial for sustaining the IDF’s operational capabilities during the ongoing war”
The “large-scale logistical effort” has been carried out by the ministry’s Directorate of Production and Procurement, the ministry’s mission to the US, the IDF’s Planning Directorate and the Israeli Air Force

The US has continued to provide Israel with arms despite calls from some critics of Israel to stop supplying the country with arms amid the rising death toll reports coming out of Gaza

US President Joe Biden has continued to support US aid for Israel and said in April 2024 after signing a $17 billion aid package for Israel into law, that he would make sure that Israel has what it needs to defend itself against Iran and its proxies

However after Biden stepped down from the 2024 presidential race, many questioned whether the new Democratic candidate, US Vice President Kamala Harris, would follow the same policy

Earlier this month, Harris’s campaign issued a statement echoing Biden’s commitment to making sure Israel has what it needs to stay secure. During Harris’ speech accepting the Democratic Party’s nomination for president, Harris said
The Biden administration withheld shipments of some heavy bombs from Israel amid concern over the Israeli incursion into south Gaza’s Rafah in the spring but part of that shipment has since been released

Saudi Arabia denounces Ben Gvir for saying he’d support synagogue on Temple Mount

https://x.com/TOIAlerts/status/1828218514299089327

Here's the Deal: Israel gets to have it's Most Holy Site, and, Islam gets to keep it's Most Holy Site.

Biden administration’s material support for IDF continuing despite some calls to end military aid
Why publicize such a controversial, contentious and divisive issue?


I agree 1,000%
Israeli allies Please save Israel the world's only Jewish state from Hit and Run brutal terror from ALL sides of this tiny nation

Well said

‘Israel has lost its deterrent power’: Iran praises largely foiled Hezbollah strike
By AFP and ToI Staff 26 August 2024

TEHRAN: Iran on Monday praised the previous day’s drone and missile assault by Lebanon’s Hezbollah terror group, claiming Israel had lost the ability to prevent such attacks

Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah on Sunday said the Iranian proxy group had launched a large-scale attack on Israel, targeting “the Glilot Base — the main Israeli military intelligence base” The installation was not hit

• Iran crowing!

“The Zionist regime may be able to hide, distort or censor some facts regarding Lebanese Hezbollah operations but it knows very well that the existing facts will not change” Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Nasser Kanaani posted on X


”Kanaani argued the Hezbollah attack “extended deep into the occupied territories” and that the “strategic balance has undergone fundamental changes” to the detriment of Israel

Kanaani also criticized the United States for its “comprehensive” support for Israel, which he said had failed to “predict the time and place” of Hezbollah’s actions

• Iranian Axis of Resistance

The Iranian military chief of staff, Mohammad Bagheri, said the Hezbollah attack was part of Iran and its allies’ “revenge” against Israel. Bagheri said Teheran’s response to last month’s Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran was “inevitable”

Bagheri added: “Iran will decide how and when to take revenge. The Axis of Resistance will avenge the blood of Ismail Haniyeh, each member according to their own plan and capacity. What we saw yesterday (with Hezbollah’s attack) is part of the revenge”

The Pentagon on Monday warned of the ongoing threat posed to Israel by Iran and its allies

• Israel-Lebanon war

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf on Sunday compared the Hezbollah attack to the Second Lebanon War, the 2006 conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, which Ghalibaf referred to as an Israeli defeat

“Today’s defeat of the regime was on a par with the defeat in the 2006 operation and they cannot hide this defeat” Ghalibaf posted

• Hezbollah

In a televised address, Hezbollah leader Nasrallah said his group had carried out a two-phased attack
Firstly, Nasrallah claimed, the terror group fired over 320 Katyusha rockets on 11 different military sites to keep Israel’s Iron Dome aerial defense system busy and then it launched dozens of drones directed at central Israel

Hezbollah has named 430 members who have been killed by Israel during the ongoing skirmishes, mostly in Lebanon but some also in Syria. In Lebanon, another 73 operatives from other terror groups, a Lebanese soldier and dozens of civilians have been killed

• Targeted killings

Fears grew of a wider regional conflagration after the assassinations last month of Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut

Iran and its allies Hamas and Hezbollah have accused Israel of being behind both killings and vowed to seek revenge

Israel claimed responsibility for the airstrike that killed Shukr — who it blamed for a Hezbollah rocket attack in which 12 Israeli children were killed at Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights — but has remained silent regarding Haniyeh

• Revenge attack

Tehran’s chief of staff calls revenge attack for the killing of Hamas chief Haniyeh in Tehran ‘inevitable’;
Pentagon says Iran and its allies pose ongoing threat to Israel

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on X late Sunday that Tehran’s reaction to Haniyeh’s death would be “definitive and will be measured [and] well calculated”
Hezbollah said its attack on Sunday was an “initial response” to Shukr’s killing but Nasrallah appeared to suggest in his address that the group’s retaliation had concluded.

‘Israel has lost its deterrent power’: Iran praises largely foiled Hezbollah strike
By AFP and ToI Staff 26 August 2024

• Israel

Israel pre-dawn on Sunday launched airstrikes into Lebanon, saying it had destroyed “thousands” of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels at 270 sites and thwarted a major attack

The Israel Defense Forces said that the Hezbollah attack was “mostly” thwarted and that no military bases were damaged in the attack but a Navy sailor on a patrol boat was killed by shrapnel from an interceptor

IDF said the minority of Hezbollah rockets that impacted caused damage to homes and lightly injured at least one person

The IDF also indicated that none of the drones impacted central Israel. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said at a cabinet meeting that “the IDF intercepted all the drones that Hezbollah launched at strategic targets in the center of the country”

Since October 8 Hezbollah-led forces have attacked Israeli communities and military posts along the border on a near-daily basis, with the group saying it is doing so to support Gaza amid the war there

So far, the skirmishes have resulted in 26 civilian deaths on the Israeli side as well as the deaths of 20 IDF soldiers and reservists

There have also been several attacks from Syria, without any injuries

White House insists Israel-Saudi normalization still possible before US election
The Times of Israel by By Jacob Magid 28 August 2024

• Israeli-Saudi pact

WASHINGTON: The White House insists that it’s still possible to broker a normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia before the November 2024 US presidential election and says it’s working to complete the initiative, even as the Israel-Hamas war wages in Gaza.

“President Biden absolutely believes normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is possible, and he believes that it’s certainly possible to get it done before the end of his time as president,” says National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby in an interview with The Times of Israel


Already in July however a lawmaker from each party told The Times of Israel that the window for the US to secure a normalization agreement before the presidential election had shut

The two congressional sources maintained that there is not enough time left in the congressional calendar for the Senate to hold the hearings necessary to approve the US-Saudi bilateral security pact that Riyadh is seeking in parallel to a deal with Israel

Last week, an Israeli diplomat speaking on the sidelines of the Democratic National Convention agreed that a normalization deal won’t be possible before November but maintained that the window could re-open during the lame duck period

The official argued that it will be too difficult before the election for both parties in Congress to authorize the US-Saudi bilateral security pact that Riyadh is seeking in parallel to normalization with Israel

“After the election, it’ll be easier for both parties.
There will be a better chance that Biden will bring the support of a Democratic majority and the Republican side will also support the [US-Saudi bilateral security pact] because of the normalization component” the Israeli diplomat maintained

Riyadh is conditioning normalization on Israel agreeing to establish a pathway to a future Palestinian state — a framework Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected and which if adopted, would likely cause his far-right coalition partners to bolt

Kirby says the Palestinian component of the deal is critical.

• Israeli-Saudi pact

Difficult -- not impossible

It would be so good if it happens sooner -- slap in all the terrorists' face

True. Stalemate -- Ceasefire through UNSCR 1701

But as is usually the case between these enemies, it is possible for both sides to claim victory
More cat-and-mouse games.... Life and Death while the leaders live in exile, underground bunkers

Inside Iran as it stands on the brink of war
ABC Australia – June 2024 Four corners documentary by Global affairs editor John Lyons and Jonathan Miller 27 August 2024

• Israel's doomsday clock

As we walk through the heart of Iran’s capital we see a large digital clock nestled among several shops
It’s counting down to what it claims, is the time left until the state of Israel is destroyed

The clock overlooks Palestine Square in Tehran as cars and vendors come and go in a country that is in conflict internationally and at home

• Netanyahu in a straitjacket

Across the square is a billboard, several stories high, depicting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a straitjacket
In Hebrew and in Farsi the billboard declares Netanyahu is “clinically insane”

It’s posturing and propaganda but this is a country on the brink of war

• restricted access

Access to Iran is restricted for foreign media
But in June 2024 Iran held a presidential election and ABC Australia’s Four Corners was allowed into Tehran for one week

We were accompanied by a government “minder” and were not free to travel or to see people and places that had not been approved

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

One event we were allowed to film was the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, voting in the election. We stood among jostling local journalists watching as the 85-year-old shuffled across a large room to place a ballot in a box


The snap-election was held after the man Ayatollah Khamenei had wanted to succeed him, president Ebrahim Raisi, was killed in a helicopter crash in May 2024 this year

This is the image the regime wants the world to see
We didn’t have to stray too far from our planned tour to get a sense of its control

• reform candidate Pezeshkian

At a rally for the now-President Masoud Pezeshkian, we watched as a gathered crowd were told the reform candidate’s rally was cancelled

Police tried to clear the supporters who had gathered.
One person in the crowd told Four Corners it was an attempt to censor candidates in the closing days of the election

Soon, uniformed and undercover police surrounded our crew, demanding we turn off our camera

The police attempted to wrestle the camera from us. We were questioned and ordered to delete the footage.
After half an hour, we were released, footage intact

• The brink of war

The Middle East is teetering on the precipice of a regional war

In October 2023 Hamas broke through the southern Israel border and killed 1,195 people and took 251 hostages, according to Israeli authorities

Since then, Israel has been exchanging fire with Iran and its proxies – Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Syria and Iraq

Tensions ratcheted up further in the past 48 hours, when Israel bombarded multiple targets in Lebanon and Hezbollah launched hundreds of rockets — the most intense cross-border attacks in months

In July 2024 political chief of Hamas Ismail Haniyeh, the group’s lead negotiator, was assassinated while in Tehran.
Israel has not taken responsibility for the killing but has been accused of orchestrating it
Experts say Iran’s regime is now feeling the pressure to respond
But the regime is not just dealing with external pressures

full Four Corners investigation The Big War available on ABC iview

Inside Iran as it stands on the brink of war
ABC Australia – June 2024 Four corners documentary by Global affairs editor John Lyons and Jonathan Miller 27 August 2024

Iran has its own internal unrest. It is a young country ruled by old men

About 72 per cent of its population was not born at the time of the “Islamic Revolution” of 1979 – when the theocratic authority led by the Ayatollahs seized power after the US-backed regime was forced from power

Two years ago, young people – women in particular – took to the streets in protest after 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died in custody when she was arrested because her hijab did not sufficiently cover her hair

The so-called “morality police” detained her. She later died in custody

• ‘An unstable system’

Ali Ansari, professor and founding director of the Institute of Iranian studies at the University of St Andrews in Scotland, said Iran is far from stable
This was Ansari's third visit to Iran. What struck me most this time was the number of women not wearing hijabs.
That likely would not have been tolerated two years ago – as the case of Amini showed

While some may have felt empowered to remove their hijab, many of the women we spoke to, feared the consequences of talking to media about their decision

• Undercover

Knowing how dangerous it can be for Iranians to speak openly, we commissioned an undercover local team to conduct interviews

The nine people they spoke to, in four different cities, were all born after the 1979 revolution
He said many Iranians opposed “any kind of warmongering” in the region and his government’s position on what some call “the big war” which would see Iran deploying Hezbollah, a proxy in Lebanon

• Iranian money funding terrorists

“Hezbollah’s hostilities are funded by the money that comes out of Iranians pockets.
They buy weapons with our money and kill innocent people

We have no foreign policy at all. Their policies cause war and chaos in the region”

Another man said:
A young woman said her generation had been “utterly devastated”

“Our youth has been stolen by the revolution” she said
“After the [Mahsa Amini] protests, many were executed, tortured and imprisoned. There is a real fear of the government”

Mohammad Marandi, an Iranian academic and political analyst, who’s close to the regime; paints a different picture
“The danger right now is that since Netanyahu has failed in Gaza and … the image of Israel has been demolished across the world … he may feel that his only option for survival is to carry out a major attack”

full Four Corners investigation The Big War available on ABC iview

Inside Iran as it stands on the brink of war
ABC Australia – June 2024 Four corners documentary by Global affairs editor John Lyons and Jonathan Miller 27 August 2024

• Israeli Ghost town

For the residents of Kiryat Shemona, in Israel’s north, survival has meant deserting their home.
It once housed tens of thousands but now sits mostly abandoned

Across Israel’s north, 60,000 people have been evacuated. On the Lebanese side of the border, 100,000 have been displaced

1. Iran’s proxy, Hezbollah has launched more than 1,800 cross-border drone, rocket, and artillery strikes on Israeli territories.
2. Israel has struck over 7,000 targets inside Lebanon according to data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project

• Hezbollah's arsenal

Israel estimates Hezbollah have an arsenal of more than 120,000 missiles.

Sarit Zehavi, a former army intelligence officer, who lives near Israel’s northern border, said it’s much more.
“Double it … double [the] amount 240,000”

She said her life is at risk every day
In Tel Aviv, Zohar Palti, a former head of the intelligence directorate of the country’s foreign intelligence agency, Mossad, said
In a 2020 speech Ayatollah Khamenei said
While we are in Israel there’s an attack from one of Iran’s proxies, the Houthis, who are based in Yemen
At 3am, an Iranian-made Houthi drone hit the centre of Tel Aviv

One person was killed – one block from the US consulate and 500 metres from where we were staying

Former senior Israeli military official Amos Gilad said Iran has positioned itself as Israel’s worst enemy
As both sides tussle for dominance, Jasmine El-Gamal, a former Middle East adviser to the Pentagon during the Obama administration, said
El-Gamal's role saw her briefing the chairman of the joint chiefs of the US military
If she were in that role today and the question of war between Israel and Iran was asked, her answer would be grim
And if the chairman insisted on an answer?
full Four Corners investigation The Big War available on ABC iview