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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1100745
Yesterday at 09:15 PM
Yesterday at 09:15 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
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Trojan
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From: BBC September 25, 2024 Israel’s earlier wars with Hezbollah were grinding, attritional and never produced a decisive victory for either side.
At first Israel hoped air power would stop rocket attacks into Israel. When it did not, ground troops and tanks once again rolled back over the border. The war was a disaster for Lebanese civilians.
But on the last day of the war, Hezbollah was still launching salvoes of rockets into Israel.
This one might go the same way, however satisfying the last week of offensive action has been for Israel, its intelligence services and its military.
Israel’s offensive rests on an assumption - a gamble - that a point will come when Hezbollah will crumple, retreat from the border and stop firing into Israel. Most observers of Hezbollah believe it will not stop.
Fighting Israel is the main reason why Hezbollah exists. That means Israel, just as reluctant to admit defeat, would have to escalate the war further.
Israel’s commanders know that entering Lebanon under fire would be much more formidable military challenge than fighting Hamas, in Gaza.
Hezbollah has also been making plans since the end of the 2006 war, and would be fighting on home ground, in south Lebanon which has plenty of rugged, hilly terrain that suits guerrilla tactics.
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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1100749
Yesterday at 09:25 PM
Yesterday at 09:25 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 689
Trojan
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Pezeshkian, who was elected this year and portrays himself as a relative moderate, also said Iran could not dictate to Houthi forces that are attacking shipping in the Red Sea The Houthis, Pezeshkian said, were reacting to what Pezeshkian called the unjust plight of Palestinians in Gaza “How can we ask them [Houthis] to abstain?” Pezeshkian said “They are trying to stop genocide”? -- by violence! including -- 1. murdering innocent crew 2. polluting the environment 3. disrupting the Red Sea International shipping route 4. impacting Global trade 5. destroying ships I was reading the NBC article, impressed by this rare, relative moderate leader -- unheard of in Iran until his comments about Houthis terror in the Red Sea Another pezzonovante... ominous warning menacing words that Iran could be entering the war From: The Guardian September 24, 2024 Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue as Iran says Hezbollah ‘cannot stand alone’ On Tuesday Iran’s president, Masoud Pezeshkian, expressed fears of a regional conflagration but said Hezbollah, which Iran helped to found in 1983, “cannot stand alone” against Israel “Hezbollah cannot stand alone against a country that is being defended and supported and supplied by western countries, by European countries and the United States,” Pezeshkian told CNN. How is Hezbollah standing alone? Aren't all the terrorists in solidarity with each other against Israel and for it's destruction
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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1100750
Yesterday at 09:29 PM
Yesterday at 09:29 PM
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 689
Trojan
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Underboss
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From: BBC September 25, 2024 Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue as Iran says Hezbollah ‘cannot stand alone’
The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington DC, estimates that Hezbollah has around 30,000 active fighters and up to 20,000 reserves, mostly trained as mobile small units of light infantry.
Many of its men have combat experience fighting in support of the Assad regime in Syria.
Most estimates say that Hezbollah has something between 120,000 and 200,000 missiles and rockets, ranging from unguided weapons to longer-range weapons that could hit Israel’s cities.
Israel may be gambling that Hezbollah will not use all of them, fearful that the Israeli air force will do to Lebanon what it did to Gaza, turning entire towns to rubble and killing thousands of civilians.
Iran might not want Hezbollah to use weapons it would like to reserve as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. That’s another gamble. Hezbollah might decide to use more of its arsenal before Israel destroys it.
With the war continuing in Gaza, and rising levels of violence on the occupied West Bank, Israel would also have to contemplate a third front if it invaded Lebanon.
Its soldiers are motivated, well trained and equipped, but the reserve units that provide much of Israel’s fighting power are already feeling the strain after a year of war.
Israel believes the time has come to be aggressive and audacious, to blast Hezbollah away from its borders. But it faces an obdurate, well-armed and angry enemy.
Israel has not been able to destroy all the tunnels Hamas dug through sand in Gaza. In the borderlands of south Lebanon, Hezbollah has spent the last 18 years preparing tunnels and positions in solid rock.
Hezbollah, which is sponsored by Iran, has a formidable arsenal, supplied by Iran. Unlike Hamas in Gaza, it can be resupplied by land through Syria.
This is the most dangerous crisis in the long year of war since Hamas attacked Israel and at the moment nothing is stopping it spiralling towards something much worse.
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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Trojan]
#1100752
13 hours ago
13 hours ago
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Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926 Australia
Kangaroo Don
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Both Israel and Hezbollah wrong!ABC Australia by Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek 24 September 2024 Extracts: Israel's deadly attack on Lebanon shows it wasn't deterred by Hezbollah's rockets - Both Israel and Hezbollah have been wrong
1. Hezbollah thought it could contain its conflict with Israel 2. Israel thought it could stop Hezbollah's attacks by military means When the Lebanese militant group started firing rockets into Israel on 08 October 2023 the day after the Hamas attacks in southern Israel, it had very clear goals Divert Israeli military and intelligence resources, show solidarity with the Palestinian cause and make the conflict in Gaza a regional war, in keeping with the "Unity of Arenas" strategy to coordinate attacks on Israeli and United States interests by Iran-backed groups around the Middle East Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in November 2023 in his first speech outlining the group's strategy after 07 October 2023 that the group's attacks had generated panic as well as fear of a broader war, for Israel and America "Our efforts have successfully deterred the enemy" Nasrallah claimed Nasrallah was right that Israel and more so the United States, did fear the outbreak of a regional war that could bring Iran into the fighting But time has proven Nasrallah badly wrong about deterrence After months of the situation on the border being dangerous but relatively static, Israel has raised the stakes significantly
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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1100753
13 hours ago
13 hours ago
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Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926 Australia
Kangaroo Don
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Underboss
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926
Australia
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Both Israel and Hezbollah wrong!ABC Australia by Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek 24 September 2024 Extracts: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made it an official goal to return more than 60,000 evacuated northern Israel residents to their homes Last week, Israel is presumed to have blown up Hezbollah's personal communications devices, then killed its key military leaders in the heart of Dahiyeh, the Shia Muslim district that is Hezbollah's Beirut stronghold Now, Israel's massive strikes in the southern and central Lebanese villages where it accuses Hezbollah of storing medium and long-range missiles and again in Beirut, show it is willing to go even further Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre told the ABC Australia "Of course, Hezbollah miscalculated"
"I don't think they had in mind that they would reach the stage in which much of their strategic weapons and the trust in their leadership and their ability to conduct a war, is being redefined by the Israeli attack"
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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1100754
13 hours ago
13 hours ago
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Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926 Australia
Kangaroo Don
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Underboss
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926
Australia
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Both Israel and Hezbollah wrong!ABC Australia by Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek 24 September 2024 Extracts: The scale of destruction from Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon was already far greater than anything caused by Hezbollah's rockets, forcing 100,000 Lebanese to flee and flattening parts of the south but the group continued firing It showed Israel's continued failure to force the separation of the Lebanon and Gaza conflicts Israel has been unwilling to accept Hezbollah's stance — and American advice — that the only way to stop the group's attacks was to reach a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza "[Hezbollah] abandoning [that] stance now would amount to a historic defeat, dealing the group's credibility an even more devastating blow than its security lapses have" the International Crisis Group wrote A Gaza ceasefire remains unlikely, partly due to Israel's political situation while intense domestic pressure is leading Israel to pursue an increasingly aggressive strategy in Lebanon Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre told the ABC Australia "Israel has pressed all the red buttons, now has bombed civilian areas, caused the mass displacement that Hezbollah was trying to avoid" Hezbollah has been unwilling to accept diplomatic approaches by the United States that would see it comply with a United Nations Security Council resolution and withdraw from the border region
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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1100755
13 hours ago
13 hours ago
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Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926 Australia
Kangaroo Don
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926
Australia
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Both Israel and Hezbollah wrong!ABC Australia by Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek 24 September 2024 Extracts: Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire for 11 months Air/drone strikes and shelling/artillery/missile attacks between Israel and Hezbollah from 08 October 2023 to 20 September 2024 1. To date, Hezbollah has lost hundreds of fighters and is now losing an untold amount of munitions 2. The extent to which its capabilities have been degraded will only become clear when the group responds to these latest attacks Iran, which regards Hezbollah as part of its "forward defence" strategy, an insurance policy against Israeli or US attack, will be considering its response too although to date it has been unwilling to enter the conflict more directly to support Hezbollah The group now needs to both save face and attempt to regain a degree of deterrence against future Israeli attacks It has already started launching long-range strikes into Israel, for the first time since it entered the war
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Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1100756
13 hours ago
13 hours ago
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Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926 Australia
Kangaroo Don
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Oct 2016
Posts: 926
Australia
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Both Israel and Hezbollah wrong!ABC Australia by Middle East correspondent Eric Tlozek 24 September 2024 Extracts: The escalation highlights another US failure, this time of diplomatic efforts to prevent the conflict spreading The US has continued to provide weapons and diplomatic protection for Israel while trying to convince Israel's enemies to show restraint even as global outrage grew about Israel's conduct in Gaza The latest Israeli attacks have killed hundreds of people, including civilians and caused another mass displacement of Lebanese, battering a country that was already critically weakened by economic collapse and political dysfunction One hopeful possibility may be that Israel has opted for these strikes in preference to a ground invasion which could have an even worse impact and longer-term consequences However unless Hezbollah has been critically weakened, the attacks may not achieve what Israel wants Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre told the ABC Australia "Israel will fail I think, in achieving its goal for one simple reason—
If Hezbollah agrees to Israel's conditions it will have to face the wrath of its own base because the question will be if you were willing to do this, why didn't you do it earlier on rather than inflicting all the pain?"
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