From: BBC September 25, 2024
Israeli strikes on Lebanon continue as Iran says Hezbollah ‘cannot stand alone’

The Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank in Washington DC, estimates that Hezbollah has around 30,000 active fighters and up to 20,000 reserves, mostly trained as mobile small units of light infantry.

Many of its men have combat experience fighting in support of the Assad regime in Syria.

Most estimates say that Hezbollah has something between 120,000 and 200,000 missiles and rockets, ranging from unguided weapons to longer-range weapons that could hit Israel’s cities.

Israel may be gambling that Hezbollah will not use all of them, fearful that the Israeli air force will do to Lebanon what it did to Gaza, turning entire towns to rubble and killing thousands of civilians.

Iran might not want Hezbollah to use weapons it would like to reserve as insurance against an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
That’s another gamble. Hezbollah might decide to use more of its arsenal before Israel destroys it.

With the war continuing in Gaza, and rising levels of violence on the occupied West Bank, Israel would also have to contemplate a third front if it invaded Lebanon.

Its soldiers are motivated, well trained and equipped, but the reserve units that provide much of Israel’s fighting power are already feeling the strain after a year of war.

Israel believes the time has come to be aggressive and audacious, to blast Hezbollah away from its borders.
But it faces an obdurate, well-armed and angry enemy.

Israel has not been able to destroy all the tunnels Hamas dug through sand in Gaza.
In the borderlands of south Lebanon, Hezbollah has spent the last 18 years preparing tunnels and positions in solid rock.

Hezbollah, which is sponsored by Iran, has a formidable arsenal, supplied by Iran.
Unlike Hamas in Gaza, it can be resupplied by land through Syria.

This is the most dangerous crisis in the long year of war since Hamas attacked Israel and at the moment nothing is stopping it spiralling towards something much worse.