Extracts: Israel's deadly attack on Lebanon shows it wasn't deterred by Hezbollah's rockets
Both Israel and Hezbollah have been wrong
1. Hezbollah thought it could contain its conflict with Israel 2. Israel thought it could stop Hezbollah's attacks by military means
When the Lebanese militant group started firing rockets into Israel on 08 October 2023 the day after the Hamas attacks in southern Israel, it had very clear goals
Divert Israeli military and intelligence resources, show solidarity with the Palestinian cause and make the conflict in Gaza a regional war, in keeping with the "Unity of Arenas" strategy to coordinate attacks on Israeli and United States interests by Iran-backed groups around the Middle East
Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said in November 2023 in his first speech outlining the group's strategy after 07 October 2023 that the group's attacks had generated panic as well as fear of a broader war, for Israel and America
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"Our efforts have successfully deterred the enemy" Nasrallah claimed
Nasrallah was right that Israel and more so the United States, did fear the outbreak of a regional war that could bring Iran into the fighting But time has proven Nasrallah badly wrong about deterrence
After months of the situation on the border being dangerous but relatively static, Israel has raised the stakes significantly
