From: The Times of Israel October 5, 2024 ‘Minimum punishment’
Khamenei’s sermon took place days before the first anniversary of the October 7 terror atrocities, and after Iran this week had fired barrages of some 200 missiles at Israel in what it said was retaliation for the killings of Nasrallah, Nilforoushan as well as Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July.
“What our armed forces did was the minimum punishment for the crimes of the usurping Zionist regime,” said Khamenei of the missile fire, Iran’s second-ever direct attack on US-backed Israel.
“The Palestinians were right” to launch the unprecedented October 7 attack on Israel, Khamenei stated, calling it “a logical and legal” action. Iran has hailed but denied any involvement in the Hamas attack, which was the deadliest on Jews since the Holocaust.
He claimed Tuesday’s missile barrage, which sent most of Israel’s populace into bomb shelters and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank, was based on international law, Iranian law and Islamic beliefs -- extremely worrying and frightening he is a religious leader preaching antisemitism, terrorism, hatred of an entire race, annihilation of an entire nation, in a place of worship too -- beggars belief
Hezbollah attack: Israeli police reported heavy damage in northern Israel following a Hezbollah rocket barrage on Friday. Several fires broke out but no injuries were reported.
Hezbollah said it had targeted the city of Kiryat Shmona and surrounding areas with a rocket barrage “in defense of Lebanon and its people, and in response to the barbaric Israeli assaults on cities, villages, and civilians.”
US says it struck more than a dozen Houthi targets in Yemen The US military said Friday that it carried out strikes on 15 targets belonging to the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The attack, which included strikes targeting the group’s military capabilities, was carried out to “protect freedom of navigation” in the Red Sea following weeks of Houthi attacks on ships bound for Israel, the US said.
The Iran-backed Houthis accused the US and UK of carrying out airstrikes in four cities across Yemen on Friday. Seven of those strikes targeted the Hodeidah Airport and the Katheeb area in Hodeidah, the Houthi-run Al-Masirah TV reported.
The British defense ministry said the UK was not involved in strikes on Yemen today, and Israel’s military said it isn’t aware of the strikes.
Footage geolocated by CNN shows billowing grey smoke in northern Hodeidah, a Houthi-controlled port city in western Yemen. The video was captured from a vantage point along the Red Sea.
How the Houthis fit in to the region’s conflicts: The Houthis, like Hezbollah and Hamas, are among the Iranian proxy groups aligned against Israel.
Clashes with the Iran-backed groups have intensified since Hamas’ October 7 attacks and the ensuing Israeli military offensive in Gaza, with the Houthis saying their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea are made in solidarity with the Palestinians.
Israel’s escalating war with Hezbollah has only deepened fears of a wider regional war involving Iran and the various militant groups.
Also the Saudi's and Gulf states or Egypt they stay silent but they don't want Iran to succeed.
rare 'condemnation' from an Arab country
From: CNN October 4, 2024 UAE says sectarian militias have "cost the Arabs dearly"
The UAE believes that sectarian militias in the Middle East have cost the Arab world and hopes the future of the region is an Arab project that is “reconciled with its surroundings,” a top official said.
“In light of the wars and crises that threaten Arab and regional security, we have no choice but to restore the concept of the nation state and respect its independence and sovereignty,” Anwar Gargash, the UAE president’s diplomatic adviser, said on X.
“The era of militias with its sectarian and regional dimensions has cost the Arabs dearly and burdened the region,” he added, in an apparent reference to Iran-backed Shiite militias in the region. “The future is for security, peace and prosperity with an independent Arab project that is reconciled with its surroundings,” Gargash said.
He also said that the two-state solution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict “remains the cornerstone to stop the series of recurring crises.”
Syria, Russia Remain Silent on Reported Airstrikes Near a Russian Base in Syria A weapons facility near a Russian air base in a coastal Syrian city was destroyed on Thursday, according to a monitoring group.
By Eve Sampson Anton Troianovski Aric Toler and Oleg Matsnev Oct. 4, 2024 Airstrikes hit an ammunition warehouse near a large Russian air base in northern Syria, a Britain-based monitoring group and a Russian military blogger close to Moscow’s defense ministry said on Thursday.
The strikes hit in the area of the coastal city of Jableh in Latakia Province, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, a Britain-based group that monitors violence in Syria, and Rybar, a popular account on the Telegram message app run by a former Russian Ministry of Defense employee who often appears on state television.
The monitoring group said that the strikes were supported by planes believed to be Israeli and that Syrian air defenses and Russian forces were “confronting” the missiles for over 40 minutes. Rybar said that some of Israel’s cruise missiles were shot down by Russian antiaircraft fire from Russia’s nearby base but that others hit a warehouse used by Syrian and Iranian forces.
The Israeli military, the Syrian government and the Russian Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.
The reported attack raises the possibility that Russia — an Iranian ally that has sought to distance itself from Iran’s conflict with Israel — could become ensnared in the widening conflict in the Middle East. Russia intervened in Syria’s civil war in 2015 alongside Iran in support of President Bashar al-Assad, and helped him maintain power with brutal bombardments against rebel-held cities.
Though Russia decreased its footprint in Syria after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to officials based in the Middle East, it maintains a sizable presence in the country, including at the Hmeimim air base near the city of Jableh.
Video footage and photographs posted online from the city of Jableh and verified by The New York Times show an explosion in the direction of the air base. The images were taken from a spot roughly three miles from the base, according to the Times analysis.
The reports of the strike came amid major Israeli military operations on Thursday on multiple fronts against Iranian-backed groups in Gaza and Lebanon and militants in the West Bank, most of which are part of a network that Iran calls the Axis of Resistance. That network also includes the Syrian government, which Israel has long accused of helping funnel arms to Hezbollah through its shared border with Lebanon.
The reported attack came soon after the arrival of an Iranian plane belonging to the Qeshm Fars airline, according to a news site aligned with the Syrian opposition that is headquartered in Turkey. The United States imposed sanctions on the airline in 2019, citing its regular flights to Damascus “delivering cargo, including weapons shipments” on behalf of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard provides arms to its Axis of Resistance network, including Hezbollah.
Flightradar24, a flight tracking website, showed that a Qeshm Fars flight took off from Latakia soon after 5 p.m. local time on Tuesday and landed about two hours later in Tehran.
After Israel ramped up its war with Hezbollah in Lebanon over the last two weeks, U.S. and Israeli officials said that Israel had eliminated about half of the Lebanese group’s formidable stockpile of rockets and missiles. Israel has sought to prevent the group from rearming with support of its backer, Iran.
On Thursday, a spokesman for the Israeli military again accused Hezbollah of bringing in Iranian arms via Syria, as social media chatter about the reported strike multiplied.
Charles Lister, the director of Middle East Institute’s Syria and counterterrorism programs, said on Thursday that, “By itself, this is just another Israeli strike on another weapons shipment in Syria, but the proximity to Hmeimim is rare.”
“By striking so close to Russia’s flagship base,” he added, “Israel may also be sending a signal that in such zero-sum circumstances, anything is deemed a legitimate target and an acceptable risk.”
Israeli media: Army preparing 'serious' attack on Iran The Israeli military is preparing a "serious and significant" strike on Iran in response to an Iranian missile attack earlier this week, several Israeli media outlets reported, without providing further details. The military also said it planned to expand attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and Hamas targets in Gaza, the Israeli newspaper Haaretz reported.
Last night, President Biden said the US and Israel were in constant contact and that Israel had not yet made a decision on a strike on Iran. Biden advised Israel against targeting oil facilities in Iran. "If I were in their shoes, I would think about alternatives," Biden said.
Iran's oil minister said today during a visit to a gas facility that he was "not worried" about the crisis. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi urged a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon during a visit to Syria today.
Another Hamas leader killed in Lebanon The Israeli army has killed a second Hamas leader in Lebanon, Muhammad al-Mahmoud, who the army says was coordinating the terror group's actions in the West Bank from Lebanon.
The army also says it killed Said Ali in an attack in Lebanon, a leader in Hamas's armed wing, the Qassam Brigade.
The Qassam Brigade confirms the death of two of its members in Lebanon, although it uses slightly different names. It appears to be the same people.
Hezbollah leader 'unreachable' after Israeli attack Hezbollah leader Hashem Safi al-Din, who has been named as a potential successor to the late Hassan Nasrallah, has been unreachable since yesterday's Israeli airstrike that targeted him, a Lebanese security source told Reuters.
Israeli strikes in southern Beirut have so far prevented rescue workers from searching the site of the attack, multiple sources said.
Several Arab and Israeli media, also based on anonymous sources, report that Safi al-Din has been killed. Hezbollah has not confirmed this. The Israeli army has also not made any statements about this.
Last edited by Hollander; 10/05/2409:38 AM.
"The king is dead, long live the king!"
Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1101775 10/05/2409:42 AM10/05/2409:42 AM
..I "wonder" which side India and China will choose....but I bet that some European countries might go with Hamas lol
Most ruling political parties here more or less behind Israel, but the "Left" MSM is terrible. One recent example;
Public broadcaster NOS has removed an explanatory video from Instagram, YouTube and TikTok, the broadcaster reports on its website. The video stated that Iran 'has been fighting the oppression of Muslims for decades.' That formulation was 'unfortunately chosen', the broadcaster reports, a day after strong criticism was voiced on social media and elsewhere. That statement of restoration has also received angry responses. "Restoration is good. Abolition is better."
Another Hamas leader killed in Lebanon The Israeli army has killed a second Hamas leader in Lebanon, Muhammad al-Mahmoud, who the army says was coordinating the terror group's actions in the West Bank from Lebanon.
The army also says it killed Said Ali in an attack in Lebanon, a leader in Hamas's armed wing, the Qassam Brigade.
Hezbollah leader 'unreachable' after Israeli attack Hezbollah leader Hashem Safi al-Din, who has been named as a potential successor to the late Hassan Nasrallah, has been unreachable since yesterday's Israeli airstrike that targeted him, a Lebanese security source told Reuters.
upper echelon outnumber the Ground terrorists
IDF says it will retaliate against Iran in its own time The Israeli military says it will retaliate in its own time against Iran for a ballistic missile attack launched by Tehran on Tuesday, adding that two air bases struck in the attack remained fully operational and no aircraft were damaged.
"The way in which we respond to this disgraceful attack will be in the manner, at the location and the timing which we decide, according to the political leadership's instructions," Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said.
Good call As at today, no wins.... every front remains "undefeated" "unconquered" ongoing seven fronts -- Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Iran and worrying death toll of Israeli soldiers
Most likely there will be a huge attack on October 7 !
The Guardian October 6, 2024 Faith leaders unite to reject prejudice on eve of 7 October anniversary
Muslim and Jewish figures join archbishop in first act of high-level solidarity
Muslim and Jewish leaders today unite around an unprecedented joint statement calling the assaults on Israel on 7 October last year “brutal Hamas terrorist attacks” that led to a “devastating war in Gaza and beyond” which together have caused “horrific” human suffering.
Joined by the archbishop of Canterbury Justin Welby in the first high-level act of inter-faith solidarity in the year-long conflict, they say in a letter to the Observer: “Our faiths and our humanity teach us that we should mourn for all the innocent people who have lost their lives.
Good call As at today, no wins.... every front remains "undefeated" "unconquered" ongoing seven fronts -- Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Iran and worrying death toll of Israeli soldiers
I agree, but what can Israel do otherwise? The Jews are fighting for their survival even NATO member Erdogan is very hostile. They forget Israel is a nuclear power.
Israel didn't start this shit there are around 70 Palestinian towns IN Israel, Blacks Whites, Conservative Liberal, Jews Christians Muslims they live together in peace.
Israel didn't start this shit there are around 70 Palestinian towns IN Israel, Blacks Whites, Conservative Liberal, Jews Christians Muslims they live together in peace.
IDF says it will retaliate against Iran in its own time
Good call As at today, no wins.... every front remains "undefeated" "unconquered" ongoing seven fronts -- Gaza, Lebanon, West Bank, Yemen, Syria, Iraq, Iran and worrying death toll of Israeli soldiers
I agree, but what can Israel do otherwise? The Jews are fighting for their survival even NATO member Erdogan is very hostile. They forget Israel is a nuclear power.
Nations including NATO member Turkey acting rogue inciting violence, autocratic inflammatory anti-Israel rhetoric, championing terrorist organizations and seeing their terror actions against Israel as both legitimate and laudable -- seemingly going unchecked
Originally Posted by Hollander
Israel didn't start this shit there are around 70 Palestinian towns IN Israel, Blacks Whites, Conservative Liberal, Jews Christians Muslims they live together in peace.
This “belligerent warring” been going on far too long.... Israeli soldiers far too high a toll
Israel has not seen this scale of military activity in terms of duration, intensity and cost in recent times -- Israel is burning and bleeding, on all fronts including its economy
I reckon, US and allies' help for Israel including boots on the ground [unofficial] fighting alongside IDF [even if in Israeli uniforms] can and must comprehensively defeat this terror war and see it to a finish, once and for all
Also the Saudi's and Gulf states or Egypt they stay silent but they don't want Iran to succeed.
Originally Posted by MeyerLansky
yes they support us silently they know that they're evil and dangerous for those who seek freedom.
Originally Posted by Hollander
Indeed and they have huge interests with the West, Kingdom of Jordan also. If Iran wins they will lose.
Elie Wiesel 1928-2016
Quote
"We must always take sides. Neutrality helps the oppressor Never the victim Silence encourages the tormentor Never the tormented"
These silent countries sit on their hands and watch the crisis worsening.... while Israel does all the heavy lifting -- all the blood, sweat, tears, death -- Then come to pick through the spoils! Vulture is a patient bird indeed
Saudi Arabia is one of countries that do not accept Israeli passports
From: The Times of Israel October 5, 2024 ‘Minimum punishment’
Extracts: Ali Khamenei, Iran's second supreme leader, claimed Tuesday’s missile barrage, which sent most of Israel’s populace into bomb shelters and killed a Palestinian man in the West Bank, was based on international law, Iranian law and Islamic beliefs -- extremely worrying and frightening he is a religious leader preaching antisemitism, terrorism, hatred of an entire race, annihilation of an entire nation, in a place of worship too -- beggars belief
Although religions 'spread' messages of harmony, love, and forgiveness.... these toxic religious leaders spew poison
Religion may not be the root of all evil but it's the root of a lot of evil and undoubtedly of the most diverse evil because the religious superiority and supreme! evil exists, in most if not all religions
Religious evil is fueled by eschatological antagonism and the enormous utopian energies that are characteristic of religion
French President Emmanuel Macron urges halt, to arms sales to Israel
Mr Macron earlier told France Inter radio that the priority was,
Quote
"to get back to a political solution [and] that arms used to fight in Gaza are halted" Macron said "France doesn't ship any"
"Our priority now is to avoid escalation" "The Lebanese people must not in turn be sacrificed, Lebanon cannot become another Gaza"
France is not a major weapons provider for Israel, shipping military equipment worth 30 million euros ($48 million) last year, according to the defence ministry's annual arms exports report
Mr Macron's comments come as his Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot is on a four-day trip to the Middle East, wrapping up on Monday in Israel as Paris looks to play a role in reviving diplomatic efforts
Macron reallyfiredNetanyahu up!
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hit out at France's President Emmanuel Macron on Saturday for saying shipments of arms to Israel used in the conflict in Gaza should be stopped as part of a broader effort to find a political solution
Mr Netanyahu said of Mr Macron and other Western leaders who have called for what he described as an arms embargo on Israel
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"Shame on them"
"Israel will win with or without their support" Netahyahu said in a pre-recorded video released by Netanyahu's office, adding that calling for an arms embargo was a disgrace
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"As Israel fights the forces of barbarism led by Iran, all civilised countries should be standing firmly by Israel's side. Yet President Macron and some other western leaders are now calling for an arms embargo against Israel. Shame on them
Netanyahu declared,
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Is Iran imposing an arms embargo on Hezbollah, on the Houthis, on Hamas and on its other proxies? Of course not
The axis of terror stands together but countries that supposedly oppose this terror axis call for an arms embargo on Israel What a disgrace
Macron’s office says France is ‘Israel’s steadfast friend’ after Israeli PM slams arms embargo call
After Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu labels French President Emmanuel Macron’s call for an arms embargo on Israel “a disgrace” the Élysée stresses that Macron,
Quote
“supports Israel’s security and demonstrates it”
Macron’s office notes that France mobilized its military this week’s during Iran’s missile attack, as it did in April
The statement says that Macron “personally told the Iranian president of France’s commitment to Israel’s security
Macron reiterated that "France would not allow Iran or any of its proxies to attack Israel and would always find us facing it if it resorted to force”?Macron been living under a rock?!Read the papers! Read the papers!
At the same time, Macron believes that “the urgent need is to avoid the escalation of tensions in the region” including an immediate ceasefire in Gaza
Quote
“It is in this context that the president calls for an end to arms exports intended for use in Gaza” “We must return to diplomatic solutions”
Macron’s office continues,
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“France is Israel’s steadfast friend” the Élysée concludes “Mr. Netanyahu’s words are excessive and unrelated to the friendship between France and Israel”
On Monday, French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot will be in Israel to mark the October 7 attacks, part of a regional tour his office says is meant to push for deescalation
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Barrot “will reaffirm France’s call for the immediate and unconditional release of all hostages held by Hamas, including French nationals Ofer Kalderon and Ohad Yahalomi”
says the French embassy
Re: Israel: 'State of war'
[Re: Hollander]
#1101840 10/06/2402:41 AM10/06/2402:41 AM
Kamala: The people of Lebanon are facing an increasingly dire humanitarian situation. I am concerned about the security and well-being of civilians suffering in Lebanon and will continue working to help meet the needs of all civilians there.
To that end, the United States will provide nearly $157 million in additional assistance to the people of Lebanon for essential needs such as food, shelter, water, protection, and sanitation to help those who have been displaced by the recent conflict. This additional support brings total U.S. assistance to Lebanon over the last year to over $385 million.
Israel response: Kamala, the humanitarian act is to make sure all the citizens of northern Israel return home safe and sound, against all enemies.
Hashem Safieddine may have been the real target, his whereabouts unknown.
Esmail Qaani, an Iranian general who promised to "see the dead bodies of Americans all over the Middle East," is missing after an Israeli attack in Lebanon.
Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (left) and Gen. Esmail Qaani attend a memorial for a previously slain leader
Hashem Safieddine may have been the real target, his whereabouts unknown.
From: France 24 October 6, 2024 Israel obstructing search for Hezbollah's Safieddine, Hezbollah official says
Israel is not allowing a search for senior Hezbollah leader Hashem Safieddine to progress after it bombed Beirut's southern suburbs on Thursday, a Hezbollah official said, noting the group would only announce his fate when the search concluded.
Safieddine is seen as a likely successor to former leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah who was killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs, known as Dahiye, on September 27 His fate remains unclear.
Israel should "let rescue teams do their work" senior Hezbollah political official Mahmoud Qmati told Iraqi state television. He said that Hezbollah was now being jointly led until it could pick a new leader, which would take time.
"What's important is that joint command is in place," he said "The method of choosing a replacement for the secretary-general takes time and requires appropriate circumstances, and for that reason we suffice today with temporary joint command," he said.
Hezbollah's salvo of Fadi 1 rockets Lebanon's Iran-backed Hezbollah group said early Monday it had targeted an Israeli military base near the northern city of Haifa, the third attack on a military position in the area in one day.
Hezbollah fighters launched "a salvo of Fadi 1 rockets at the Carmel base south of Haifa," late Sunday the group said in a statement, having earlier reported two attacks on another base also south of Haifa.
The group dedicated the attack to its leader Hassan Nasrallah, killed in an Israeli strike on Beirut's southern suburbs last month.
This “belligerent warring” been going on far too long.... Israeli soldiers far too high a toll
Israel has not seen this scale of military activity in terms of duration, intensity and cost in recent times -- Israel is burning and bleeding, on all fronts including its economy
From: The Guardian October 7, 2024 Netanyahu visited troops from the 36th division, one of two divisions sent there for combat operations, along the Lebanese border.
In remarks, the prime minister said he wished to “extend my deepest condolences to the families of our heroes who fell today in Lebanon”.
Israel has said dozens of its soldiers have been injured in Lebanon in the last week of combat, while Hezbollah claimed to have killed 20 soldiers over this weekend.
“We’re in the heat of a gruelling war against Iran’s axis of evil, aimed at destroying us,” Netanyahu said. “That will not happen, because we shall stand together, and with God’s help, we shall emerge victorious together.”
A nation in pain: Israelis a year on from October 7 On October 7, Hamas militants stormed across the Gaza border to carry out the deadliest attack on Israel in its history, traumatising the nation and sparking a devastating war.
Hamas: praises 'glorious' October 7 attack ahead of anniversary in a statement Palestinian militant group Hamas on Sunday praised its October 7 attack on Israel in a video message ahead of the first anniversary of the deadly storming of southern Israel which sparked the war in Gaza.
"The crossing of the glorious 7th of October shattered the illusions the enemy had created for itself, convincing the world and the region of its supposed superiority and capabilities," Qatar-based Hamas member Khalil al-Hayya said in a video statement.
Israel army chief: tells troops Hamas military wing 'defeated' Israel's army chief said on Sunday that Israeli forces had defeated the military wing of Hamas, as he addressed troops ahead of the first anniversary of the October 7 attack by the Palestinian militant group.
"A year has passed, and we have defeated the military wing of Hamas... We have dealt a severe blow to Hezbollah, which has lost all of its senior leadership. We are not stopping," Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said in a statement, as troops in northern Gaza operated against what the military said were Hamas attempts to rebuild.
Israel on high alert for 7 October as it escalates Gaza and Lebanon conflicts
Extracts:
suspected terror attack at the central bus station in Be’er Sheva
A young policewoman has been killed in a suspected terror attack in Israel, just hours before the anniversary of the October 7 attacks
In Israel, one woman was killed and 10 people were wounded in the suspected terror attack at the central bus station in Be’er Sheva, a city in the Negev desert in southern Israel. The assailant, identified as Ahmad al-Uqbi, 29 was killed by police
Photos and video posted on social media showed images of at least one person lying on the ground in a pool of blood next to a McDonald’s close to the bus station
In another video, gunshots could be heard as law enforcement officers ran through the station toward the shooting
After the attack, Miri Regev, Israel’s transportation minister, wrote on X that the family of the suspected attacker should be deported from the country,
Quote
“The time has come for a deterrent punishment that prevents attacks on Israeli territory”
Israel’s lack of vision in multi-fronted war may be fatally exposed
After Iranian strikes damage bases and IDF take casualties in Lebanon, experts say Israel’s military doctrine could be found wanting
As Israelis approached the beginning of the high holy days last week on the eve of Rosh Hashanah, the news began to circulate, 1. Several IDF units fighting on the border with Lebanon had taken casualties in, at least two different locations 2. Soldiers had died in combat and many were wounded
The confirmation of the wounded and dead if not the circumstances served as a stark reminder for Israelis of the blows that come in war even as Israel’s punishing air offensive has killed hundreds of Lebanese and wounded more
The soldiers’ deaths came after two weeks in which Israel struck a series of blows against Hezbollah, including the assassination of the group’s leader, Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and most of the top leadership
Underlining that sense of hazard was another story that revealed itself slowly last week: how the wave of Iranian missiles launched against Israel had not been as inconsequential as initially claimed by Israel’s leadership and instead shown that a large-scale strike could not only overwhelm Israel’s anti-missile defences but that Tehran could accurately explode warheads on the targets it was aiming for, in this case several military bases
All of which raises serious questions as Israel prepares for a “significant” military response to Iran for the its missile attack
A year into Israel’s fast metastasising multi-front war that now includes Iran, Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen, Syria and Iraq, Israel’s undoubted military and intelligence superiority is faltering on several fronts
In Israel’s expanding war, as Israeli security analyst Michael Milshtein told the Guardian last week,
Quote
there have been “tactical victories” but “no strategic vision” and certainly not one that unites the different fronts
What is clear, is that the conflict of the last year has seriously exposed Israel’s newly minted operational doctrine which had planned for fighting short decisive wars largely against non-state actors armed with missiles, with the aim of avoiding being drawn into extended conflicts of attrition
Instead, the opposite has happened. While Israeli officials have tried to depict Hamas as defeated as a military force – a questionable characterisation in the first place – they concede that it survives as a guerilla organisation in Gaza although degraded
Even as Israel has killed more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza, levelled large areas of the coastal strip and displaced a population assailed by hunger, death and sickness on multiple occasions, Israeli armour was assaulting areas of the strip once more this weekend in a new operation into northern Gaza to prevent Hamas regrouping
Hezbollah too, despite sustaining heavy losses in its leadership, retains a potency fighting on its own terrain in the villages of southern Lebanon where it has had almost two decades to prepare for this conflict
All of which raises serious questions as to whether Israel has any clearer vision for its escalating conflict with Iran
A long-distance war with Iran, many experts are beginning to suggest, could also devolve into a more attritional conflict despite the relative imbalances in capabilities even as Israel continues to plan for the scale of its own response to last week’s missile attack
Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Carmiel Arbit, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programme, described that dynamic
Quote
“I think we are going to be looking at this as the new reality for a long time” Arbit predicted
“I think the question is simply going to be, how often is the tit for tat going to happen and is it just going to be tit for tat or is this going to escalate only further
And I think the hope of the international community at this point is to avert a world war three rather than this smaller-scale war of attrition”
Nicole Grajewski, a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace, echoes that view in part, while cautioning that an extended series of exchanges could push Tehran to a less predictable reaction
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“The continued asymmetrical tit-for-tat between Iran and Israel risks devolving into a futile cycle of Iranian missile strikes and Israeli retaliations, each exposing Tehran’s military limitations while failing to alter the balance – and potentially driving Iran toward more desperate and unpredictable measures in its quest for credible deterrence”
“In the long term – and it cannot be assumed that the Israeli-Iranian conflict will end soon” wrote Haaretz’s main military analyst, Amos Harel
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“there will be competition between the production rate and sophistication of Iran’s offensive systems on one side and of Israel’s interception systems on the other”
With Israel now so deeply immersed in a widening conflict, it is unclear whether it can escape what Anthony Pfaff, the director of the Strategic Studies Institute at the US Army War College, in August called the “escalatory trap” Pfaff wrote,
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“If Israel escalates, it fuels the escalatory spiral that could, at some point, exceed its military capability to manage"
“If it chooses the status quo, where Hamas remains capable of terrorist operations, then it has done little to improve its security situation
Neither outcome achieves Israel’s security objectives … Forcing the choice between escalation and the status quo gives Iran and by extension, Hezbollah, an advantage and is a key feature of its proxy strategy”
ABC Australia - Insiders - Nikki Savva, Panel member 06 October 2024
Extracts: One thing we need to remember, is that we are where we are today because of what Hamas did, on 7 October 2023
And what Hamas did and the way they did it, they would have known exactly how Israel would have responded and Hamas showed absolutely no concern for the Palestinian people, for the ordinary civilians and they went ahead and did it anyway, with Iran's backing
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Savva: "I am not excusing the excesses that have led to so many civilian deaths but really it [07 October] should be a day of mourning for everybody"
We can't ignore how all this began and the atrocities that were committed that day We shouldn't ignore them, we shouldn't excuse them but nor should we excuse all the civilian casualties that have occurred since then