It's Iran's move now
The Associated Press by Adam Schreck Asia-Pacific news director 28 October 2024

  • Israel's military precision and capabilities are far superior to that of Iran
Extracts:
Ali Vaez, the Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, who expects Iran to hold its fire for now, says,
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“Any Iranian attempt to retaliate will have to contend with the fact that Hezbollah, its most important ally against Israel, has been significantly degraded and its conventional weapons systems have twice been largely repelled”

That’s true even if Israel held back as appears to be the case
Some prominent figures in Israel, such as opposition leader Yair Lapid, are already saying the attacks didn’t go far enough

Regional experts suggested that Israel’s relatively limited target list was intentionally calibrated to make it easier for Iran to back away from escalation

As Yoel Guzansky, who formerly worked for Israel’s National Security Council and is now a researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies, put it:
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Israel’s decision to focus on purely military targets allows Iran “to save face”
Israel’s target choices may also be a reflection at least in part of its capabilities
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"It is unlikely able to destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities on its own and would require help from the United States"

Besides, Israel still has leverage to go after higher-value targets should Iran retaliate — particularly now that nodes in its air defenses have been destroyed

Guzansky added,
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“You preserve for yourself all kinds of contingency plans,”

Thomas Juneau, a University of Ottawa professor focused on Iran and the wider Middle East, wrote on X
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"the fact Iranian media initially downplayed the strikes suggests Tehran may want to avoid further escalation"
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Yet it’s caught in a "tough spot"
1. If Iran retaliates, it risks an escalation in which its weakness means it loses more
2. If Iran does not retaliate, it projects a signal of weakness

Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the London-based think tank Chatham House Vakil agreed,
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Iran’s response was likely to be muted and that the strikes were designed to minimize the potential for escalation

"Israel has yet again shown its military precision and capabilities are far superior to that of Iran”