An arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu may not change the war but it could affect Israel's allies
In many ways, the issuing of arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence minister Yoav Gallant for alleged crimes against humanity and war crimes is the realisation of Israel's worst fears about the International Criminal Court (ICC) and the reason it is not a state party
Both are unlikely to travel to one of the 125 countries now obligated to arrest them which include Australia, meaning the probability of an imminent trial is very low
Israel's allies
But the more immediate impact of the decision could be on Israel's allies, who now must consider whether their support for Israel is more important than their support of international institutions and treaties
Janina Dill, a professor of International Law at the University of Oxford says,
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"It's quite important to stress that Benjamin Netanyahu makes decisions about how the war in Gaza unfolds, about humanitarian access, about the use of weapons there, that the conduct at the heart of the arrest warrant is persisting"
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"That means that currently any state that diplomatically or materially supports Israel's war in Gaza risks supporting crimes against humanity and war crimes”
"It's really quite clear to me that third states should take this as a really relevant piece of information in deciding whether they put themselves in legal jeopardy in supporting Israel's war"
Israel's most critical ally, the United States, is not a party to the ICC either and may choose to take retributive steps against its members, with the Biden administration having already expressed willingness to work with Congress to impose sanctions against the court
US President Joe Biden issued a statement following the news saying,
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the warrants for the Israeli leaders was "outrageous" and that "whatever the ICC might imply, there is no equivalence — none — between Israel and Hamas"
Despite those threats and enormous political pressure, the pre-trial chamber of the ICC has nevertheless substantiated, in stark legal terms, the significant concerns about Israel's response to the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks
alleged war crimes
Chief among them was the lack of food, medicine and essential services
These are the main grounds that have been upheld by the pre-trial chamber and yet, nearly 14 months in to the war, these problems persist in parts of Gaza
