• Israel's survival in danger

Sure thing war is brutal Everyone needs to do their duty not leave the brutal fighting, sacrifice and personal price, to others

• Lieutenant Colonel Yoni Netanyahu [1946-1976]

“Self-Portrait of a Hero” Author Herman Wouk wrote in the book’s introduction:

Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah
FDD's Long War Journal by Janatan Sayeh 27 November 2024

• ceasefire an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah

Extracts:
With Israel and Hezbollah having reached a ceasefire agreement, the rhetoric coming from Tehran is far from de-escalatory

Military and civilian officials within the Islamic Republic continue to underscore their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah’s capabilities and have reiterated threats of launching a third phase of the “True Promise” operation against Israel

The ceasefire period offers Iran a crucial window,
1. to reassert its influence
2. and strengthen its regional proxies
3. to solidify its position
4. and prepare for future confrontations with Israel

Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah
FDD's Long War Journal by Janatan Sayeh 27 November 2024

• Palestinian cause

Extracts:
Mahmoud Qomati, the deputy head of Hezbollah’s political council reaffirmed the group’s devotion to the Palestinian cause on November 26 stating,
Qomati also emphasized the organization’s intention to move forward with its “reconstruction” efforts, signaling continued violations of ceasefire terms and a determination to maintain influence in the region

Despite the agreement explicitly prohibiting Hezbollah’s presence in southern Lebanon, images and videos have surfaced showing members and supporters defiantly waving Hezbollah flags as they return to the region

Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah
FDD's Long War Journal by Janatan Sayeh 27 November 2024

• Iranian Axis of Resistance

Extracts:
In line with Hezbollah’s statements and actions, the Islamic Republic has hinted at re-establishing Hezbollah’s capabilities

Abbas Moghtadaei, deputy chairman of the Iranian Parliament’s National Security Commission reaffirmed Tehran’s ongoing support for its regional proxies on November 27 and asserted,
A day prior, Islamic Republic Assembly of Experts member Abbas Ka’bi, who has close ties to Hezbollah, stated,
Most importantly, Tasnim highlighted the need to replenish Hezbollah’s arsenal, referring to drones, rockets and missiles produced in Iran

Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah
FDD's Long War Journal by Janatan Sayeh 27 November 2024

• Iran’s retaliation

Extracts:
IRGC General and Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Mohammad Bagheri threatened that Iran’s retaliation for Israel’s recent aggression would surpass expectations, emphasizing that this response would differ in tactics, execution and weaponry

Similarly, IRGC member and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf declared on November 26 pledging to proceed with the “True Promise 3”
The administration of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian echoed these sentiments on November 27 In a press briefing in response to the ceasefire deal, the Foreign Ministry spokesman reiterated

Iran hails ceasefire as an opportunity to rebuild Hezbollah
FDD's Long War Journal by Janatan Sayeh 27 November 2024

• Iran’s threats

Extracts:
Amid Iran’s threats of a decisive retaliation against Israel, Jerusalem and Washington have reaffirmed their alignment in addressing this shared threat

Following the approval of a ceasefire agreement with Hezbollah, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced on November 26
On the same day, President-elect Donald Trump’s national security advisor nominee, Mike Waltz, said,

If only....

Sure thing could easily have been 'All over red over' in no time and hostages back home -- instead 'Those Who Are Alive Sit and Rot and the Dead Are Decaying'

Yet here we are.... Israel At War - Day 424

Why the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal falls short
The Australian 02 December 2024

• Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire deal falls short

Extracts:
Without effective and reliable international involvement, the Israel Defence Forces will have to end up back in Lebanon

Sure thing Ceasefire is not a panacea -- after 60 days then what?
Besides ceasefire already violated Terrorists already back

• Toothless United Nations Security Council

Resolution 1701 prohibits all armed militias from operating anywhere in all of Lebanon and disarmament of armed groups including Hezbollah

Toothless UN failure again -- can't and won't enforce ceasefire Déjà vu 18 years -- No disarmament same as 2006

UNIFIL "said little and did less” while Hezbollah was building up their tunnel-based massive military build-up for nearly two decades, setting the stage for the current catastrophic conflict.

ceasefire increasingly fragile position less than a week after it took effect already violated Terrorists already back
Iran openly defiant and their commitment to rebuilding Hezbollah and replenish their arsenal, despite 1701 explicitly prohibiting it

1. Hezbollah needs a pause to lick its wounds
2. Iran needs to stop the geostrategic bleeding
3. Its axis of resistance no longer a deterrent
4. Israel only Partial Victory against Hezbollah

Trump shapes up as Israel’s best friend in the Middle East

While there is a substantial gap between Trump’s rhetoric and the reality of what he does, his comments thus far, offer the clearest signal yet his administration will have Israel’s back.

Billboard in Israel after Trump victory: Congratulations! Trump, Make Israel Great!

Saudi Arabia Has Its Own 'Deal of the Century' for Trump

https://www.newsweek.com/saudi-arabia-has-its-own-deal-century-trump-1989311

Palestinian statehood
If Trump seeks to expand his own legacy of normalizing Arab ties with Israel, to secure the deal with Riyadh that has eluded the current administration, Saudi observers say the incoming U.S. leader will need to leverage his close ties with Israel in order to advance the cause of Palestinian statehood.

"There is one crucial thing the Trump administration must understand well:
It is wishful thinking on their part to assume that Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords for free," Salman al-Ansari, a prominent Saudi political analyst, told Newsweek.

"A Palestinian state is a must and an absolute prerequisite for normalization with Israel."

With less than two months before Trump is set to retake U.S. leadership, Ansari said it's still "too early to tell" precisely how Trump planned to handle this issue. But he saw "a mixture of optimism and pessimism" from the perspective of Saudi Arabia.

"The optimism comes from the fact that Mr. Trump has a positive precedent with us and worked hard to deepen the Saudi-U.S. economic partnership," Ansari said.

"On the other hand, the pessimism may come from his new appointees, especially the U.S. ambassador to Israel, who seems to be on the far right with regard to supporting Israel, disregarding basic humanitarian and international laws."

From: Haaretz December 4, 2024

Trump Picks New Hostage Envoy Who Suggested U.S. Forces Conduct Rescue Missions in Gaza
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump announced that he has selected Adam Boehler as his special presidential envoy for hostage affairs.

Adam Boehler was a senior aide to Jared Kushner and had helped craft the Israel-Morocco component of the Abraham Accords

While Palestinians also rebuffed the 2020 Abraham Accords, the initiative served as a milestone in Israeli-Arab relations, ultimately winning over,
1. United Arab Emirates,
2. Bahrain,
3. Morocco,
4. and Sudan

They also undermined the conditions set forth by the Arab Peace Initiative and thus far Saudi Arabia has been unwilling to break with its 2002 proposal.

From: SBS News December 5, 2024
Hamas threatens to 'neutralise' hostages if Israel launches rescue operation in Gaza

An apparent internal statement from Hamas includes an order to "neutralise" hostages if Israeli forces try to rescue them in action similar to the deadly Nuseirat camp operation.

Hamas says it has information that Israel intends to carry out a hostage rescue operation similar to one conducted in Gaza's Nuseirat camp in June and threatened to "neutralise" the captives if any such action took place, according to an internal statement.

On Wednesday, Israeli media cited Defence Minister Israel Katz as saying pressure on Hamas was increasing and this time "we will really be able to advance a hostage deal".

In the Hamas statement, the group told its operatives to "tighten" the living conditions of the captives and said this should be done in accordance with instructions issued after the Nuseirat operation.

In a section titled "recommendations," Hamas also instructed its operatives to "activate neutralisation orders ... as an immediate and swift response to any adventure by the enemy".

Israel - Morocco relations shouldn't be a problem Moroccan Jews constitute an ancient community dating to Roman times.
At its peak in the 1950s, Morocco's Jewish population was about 250,000-350,000.

From: Haaretz December 5, 2024
Israeli Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara

A Toxic, Authoritarian Manosphere Rules Israel. But This Woman Is Defying Them

We can only hope that Israeli Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara continues to resist pressure and remains steadfast in her efforts to clean up the country's hopelessly sullied leadership.

Since the government entered office two years ago, it has repeatedly been at odds with Baharav-Miara, especially in relation to its controversial judicial overhaul, elements of which she sought to stop because they allegedly undermined democracy.

Netanyahu government's campaign to drive Baharav-Miara from office has consistently been tinged with sexism.

The opposition struck down a largely symbolic vote proposed by a coalition MK on Wednesday that was intended to increase pressure on the government to fire the attorney-general.

From: Haaretz December 5, 2024
Israel's Democracy at risk of Collapse

How South Korea and Georgia Could Accelerate Israel's Democratic Collapse
Despite their very different circumstances, there are similarities in the authoritarian 'wave' threatening all three societies.

This is why, together with the imminent Trump presidency, South Korea and Georgia could galvanize Israel's democratic decline

Israelis don't have a lot of bandwidth for other people's problems these days, but they ought to be watching at least two other countries this week: South Korea and Georgia.

Australia again, voted against Israel, their “ally” on Tuesday, splitting with US in their 'flip-flop' UN voting

From: The Guardian December 4, 2024
Australia splits with US to back UN resolution demanding end to Israel occupation of Palestinian territories

The non-binding UN General Assembly motion Vote marks a change to the nation’s official stance held for more than two decades

Australia has split with the US and voted with 156 other countries at the UN to demand the end of Israel’s “unlawful presence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory as rapidly as possible”.

A total of 157 UN member countries, including Australia, the UK and Canada, voted to support the resolution.

Eight, including Argentina, Israel and the US voted against it. Seven others abstained.

From: The Times of Israel December 6, 2024
Fire bombed -- Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne, Australia, targeted in an arson attack

The firebombing of a synagogue in the southeast Melbourne suburb of Ripponlea:

The Zionist Federation of Australia’s head Jeremy Leibler, says,
"appears to be another shocking escalation of the hate that we have seen brazenly displayed on the streets of Melbourne every week for over a year,” “No one should be surprised";

"this violent attack is a direct consequence of words turning into actions. Jew-hatred, left unchecked, endangers all Australians.”

Australian police say they have launched an investigation into a “suspicious” blaze that broke out before dawn Friday in a Melbourne synagogue, which the country’s prime minister denounces as an antisemitic arson attack.

“I have zero tolerance for antisemitism. It has absolutely no place in Australia,” says Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Big accusation. Don't forget Hamas is still in control in Gaza.

Amnesty International has accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians in the Gaza war, which Israel strongly denies.

The UK-based human rights group said its conclusion was based on “dehumanising and genocidal statements” by Israeli officials, digital images and witness testimony and must serve as “a wake-up call” to the international community.

Israel’s foreign ministry described the 295-page report as “entirely false and based on lies”, while the Israeli military said the claims were “entirely baseless and fail to account for the operational realities” it faces.

In the past day, meanwhile, local medics say at least 50 Palestinians have been killed in Israeli strikes in Gaza.

The biggest number of people were killed in the al-Mawasi tent camp for displaced people, where Israel says it was targeting Hamas operatives.

Amnesty says that its research over months “has found sufficient basis to conclude that Israel has committed - and is continuing to commit - genocide against Palestinians”.

The 1948 Genocide Convention, enacted following the mass murder of Jews in the Nazi Holocaust, defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”.

Agnès Callamard, Amnesty’s secretary general, said Israeli actions “include killings, causing serious bodily or mental harm and deliberately inflicting on Palestinians in Gaza conditions of life calculated to bring about their physical destruction".

“Month after month, Israel has treated Palestinians in Gaza as a subhuman group unworthy of human rights and dignity, demonstrating its intent to physically destroy them,” she continued.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cjwl0v4w5j3o

Fire bombed -- Adass Israel Synagogue in Melbourne, Australia, targeted in an arson attack

deport all ‘multicultural scum’ They bite the hand that feeds them

law-abiding citizens are sick and tired of this daily disruption, destruction, hatred and violence -- reinforces their vile mentality, fire bombing place of worship because of terror war 1,000s of miles away
They think such evil, malicious, reprehensible, antisemitism acts advance whatever their cause is

The Times of Israel December 5, 2024
Israel’s defense chiefs discuss Syria fighting as rebel advance said to exceed expectations

Official says it’s in Jerusalem’s interest both sides fight, weaken each other, stresses Israel not getting involved;

Hezbollah chief vows terror group to stand by Assad regime -- same as Hamas

“The IDF is following events and is preparing for any scenario in attack and defense,” the military said.
“The IDF will not allow a threat near the Syrian-Israeli border and will act to thwart any threat to the citizens of the State of Israel,”

The Times of Israel December 6, 2024
Isolated Hamas faces collapsing negotiating stance after drastic Trump threat

Terror group pinned hopes of salvation on the Iranian axis and world pressure on Israel, but now has just a few weeks until an unpredictable and angry US president returns

The message was posted by a famously voluble leader, but it should not be underestimated.
"If the hostages are not released prior to January 20, 2025 there will be ALL HELL TO PAY in the Middle East, and for those in charge who perpetrated these atrocities against Humanity,”

It comes at the worst possible time for Hamas, and could be what is needed to finally break the terror group’s unwillingness to recognize the weakness of its position in hostage talks.

Following Trump’s victory in the US elections: Netanyahu expecting,
1. more reliable veto in the United Nations Security Council,
2. quicker flow of key weapons,
3. intense pressure on the International Criminal Court as it goes after the Israeli leadership
4. and international pressure on Israel is likely to wane

Sinwar’s three bets:
1. believed its bargaining position was only improving with time
2. international pressure on Israel
3. growing domestic anger at Netanyahu

"We have the Israelis right where we want them,” Sinwar told other Hamas leaders, according to a June report in The Wall Street Journal. "The higher the civilian death toll in Gaza, the more pressure would be put on Israel," he said.

Shortly before his death in mid-October, Sinwar told Hamas’s leadership that "a long war against Israel was beneficial."
“The longer it lasts, the closer we get to liberation,” senior Hamas official Osama Hamdan recounted Sinwar saying.

Sinwar is now dead, but those making decisions in his place did not immediately seem willing to make any major concessions, either — at least not until recent developments knocked the pillars out from under Hamas’s position.

Tables turning:

When Hezbollah began assaulting Israel to support Hamas in October 2023 it vowed to continue to do so as long as the war in Gaza continued.

This past September, Jerusalem reached the limit of its patience and launched a massive offensive against the group.

After being hammered by Israel via air, ground, and pager, the wounded terror militia last week,
1. abandoned its previous position,
2. threw in the towel without a ceasefire in Gaza
3. leaving Hamas in the lurch.

Though Iran’s willingness to strike Israel directly with ballistic missiles twice this year was sure to raise Hamas’s hopes of salvation, Tehran has so far not made good on its promise to strike a third time.

And with the Bashar Assad regime in Syria under new military pressure from rebels, the Islamic Republic appears to have its hands full trying to avoid losing another key member of its axis.

The pressure is on: “Release them now!”

In a little over six weeks, Trump’s deadline will arrive.
His slogan, which puts the onus squarely on Hamas, seems to be “Release them now!”

It’s not clear what Trump might do to back up his threat, but his disdain for norms makes his ultimatum credible in the region.

He could make Iran pay for Hamas’s intransigence through sanctions, strikes on oil and gas sites, or even attacks on Revolutionary Guards forces and Shia militias outside Iran.

According to the New York Times report, “reality started to sink in” for Hamas after Sinwar’s death in October, as it became clear,
1. Iran was not looking to enter into direct conflict with Israel
2. and that Hezbollah was being hit hard by the IDF

Hamas options:
Now, with Trump making his desires crystal clear, Hamas has a decision to make.

It could use the next few weeks to get the best deal it can, allowing Israel to retain a much-reduced troop presence in Gaza, which it hopes will disappear in time under domestic or international pressure, when other countries increasingly see IDF forces in Gaza as part of an occupation that stands in the way of the Strip’s reconstruction.

Or it can continue to hold on to the hostages and the hope that Netanyahu will eventually break, while it faces the unpredictable commander-in-chief of the world’s most powerful military — a man who famously doesn’t like being refused like Vito, The Godfather

CNN: Israeli President Calls Elon Musk Over Hostage Standoff

Israel hopes to break the impasse surrounding the 100 hostages still held in Gaza by asking billionaire Elon Musk. The reportedly richest man in the world has been asked by President Isaac Herzog to help start new negotiations with Hamas, CNN reports.

A source close to the Israeli president tells the American news channel that telephone contact has been made with Musk "in recent days", at the request of the families of hostages. Not only Israelis have been held captive in Gaza for more than a year, American citizens are also being held by order of the Islamic terrorist group.

Musk had traveled to Israel a year ago to meet with relatives and families of hostages. President-elect Donald Trump, very popular in Israel, previously campaigned with the Tesla leader and last week stated in a message on Truth Social that Hamas had better cooperate with a deal before he enters the White House. Otherwise, "all hell would break loose in the Middle East", the Republican wrote.

Syrian rebels say they have captured southern city of Daraa

Syrian rebels say they have captured the city of Daraa in the south of the country. According to sources, this happened after a deal was made with the army of President Bashar al-Assad whereby the government troops were allowed to safely withdraw to the capital Damascus.

On Friday, the rebels also took over one of the most important army bases in Daraa province. They are also said to have taken control of at least two border crossings with Jordan.

The rebels, led by fighters from the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), began a new offensive last week. They have now captured the major cities of Aleppo and Hama and are at the gates of Homs.

From: The New York Times December 7, 2024
As Syrian Rebels Advance, Iran Grows Nervous and Neighbors Close Their Borders

The rebels’ gains prompted Lebanon and Jordan to close border crossings and Iran to begin withdrawing personnel from Syria.

and again and again, Western countries open their borders to welcome the ‘Refugees’ who then turn against us and bite the hand that feeds them

Israel announces it is 'reinforcing aerial and ground forces' in Golan Heights after developments in Syria

From: The Times of Israel December 7, 2024
Syrian rebel commander urges Israel to support uprising, strike Iran-backed forces

In an interview with ToI, a Free Syrian Army officer,
1. expresses hope for friendly relations with the Jewish state,
2. warns of Iranian militias propping up Assad

"They will come for Israel, too"