Israel, it is assessed, would likely only get involved directly if it sees Syrian chemical weapons falling into the wrong hands, or if the Golan Heights were threatened.

Iran badly eroded
Regardless of what happens next — whether Russia and Iran figure out a way to stem the rebel advance, or if HTS sparks a broad offensive against the regime — the timing and success of the attack shows how badly eroded the Iranian position has become.

For years, it was the most aggressive force in the region, and attacks from its proxies spooked pro-Western Gulf states into opening diplomatic dialogue with Tehran.

With its massive October 7 attack, Hamas thought it could inspire a flood of violence against Israel from the Iranian axis.

Instead, Israel has moved to the strategic offensive against Iran, and it could be that Hamas inadvertently unleashed a flood against its patrons in Tehran.