For the rebels to launch the type of offensive that they did, they needed the go-ahead from Turkey which Erdogan gave - even though Erdogan's backing of the rebels puts him at odds with Iran, Russia and – inasmuch as one of his interests is to squash the Kurds – also the US -- Why risk this?
Syrian refugee crisis in Turkey
Because Erdogan is keen on resettling in northern Syria the estimated 3.5 million Syrian refugees who poured into Turkey since the start of the civil war and because Erdogan wants to further undermine Kurdish efforts in the region
Regarding resettlement of the refugees, Turkey and Syria have been in reconciliation talks for months (Erdogan quickly backed the rebels when the civil war began)
But these talks have gone nowhere, with Assad demanding that Turkey remove its troops from a security zone that Turkey, together with the SNA, have carved out in northern Syria
The Syrian refugee crisis has increasingly become a domestic issue in Turkey, where – amid an economic crisis – there has been a backlash against the refugees, something that hurt Erdogan’s party in local and parliamentary elections
buffer zone
Erdogan wants them to return precisely to the buffer zone in the north
Kurdish threat
In addition, Erdogan is hoping that the fighting will help contain and potentially remove the threat he perceives from the Kurdish groups in northeastern Syria which – at least until President-elect Donald Trump comes into power on January 20, 2025 – have US support
Rebels' success
1. This rebel offensive now gives Erdogan added leverage against Assad to reach an agreement regarding the Syrian refugees 2. The success of the rebels gives Erdogan increased leverage and strengthens his position in shaping Syria’s future
