So, why did the Kremlin effectively sit back as Syria fell to rebel forces?
Firstly, at least for Putin, his hands were full with the war in Ukraine and Putin didn't really want to divert resources elsewhere
Iran and Lebanon, both backers of Assad, were also fighting battles of their own, with Israel relentlessly targeting what was the region's strongest rebel force, Hezbollah, in recent months
The writing was on the wall for Russia Throwing more resources at Syria wasn't going to turn things around for Bashar al-Assad
Julien Barnes-Dacy, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says,
Quote
"I think the Russians, much like the Iranians, knew that Assad was done for"
Quote
"Assad was completely hollowed out and they didn't have the resources or the willingness to go back in with a military force”
"I think this was also a question of them cutting their losses and realising that they couldn't bear the pain of backing Assad"
Putin striking a deal with his friend Assad's enemy
So Vladimir Putin appears to have done the unthinkable
With Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria on the back foot and all but destroyed, the theory now is that Putin will lean into other non-state actors within Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance
The speculated deal?
Agreeing with the rebel HTS forces to let the Assad regime fall quickly as long as Russia could maintain its strategically important military bases in Syria
