The chance of a terrorist attack in the Netherlands is real. The National Coordinator for Counterterrorism and Security (NCTV) therefore maintains the threat level at 4 (substantial). This is partly due to the continuing high threat of jihadism.
The continuing high threat of jihadism is illustrated by the sharp increase in the number of jihadist attacks and arrests in Europe in 2024. The war in Gaza is a major driving factor for the jihadist threat in Europe. Jihadist groups such as Al Qaeda and ISIS use the conflict in their propaganda and call on their followers to carry out attacks in the West against 'Christian and Jewish' targets. On 19 September, a man attacked people with a knife at the Erasmus Bridge in Rotterdam, killing one person. The Public Prosecution Service suspects the suspect of murder and attempted murder with a terrorist motive.
The jihadist threat mainly comes from the Islamic State (ISIS). In Europe, attacks are still being carried out by perpetrators acting alone who are inspired by ISIS. But there are also networks of jihadists from Central Asia and the Caucasus in Europe who intend to carry out an attack in Europe. They are often linked to ISKP, the originally Afghan province of ISIS. Other ISIS provinces, such as those in Syria or Somalia, also try to direct attacks in Europe or encourage supporters in the West to do so. There is a certain degree of coordination between the ISIS provinces, which sometimes also work together to prepare an attack. This distribution of external attack capacity makes it more difficult to detect attack planning at an early stage. In addition, directed attacks are often more complex and aimed at causing many victims.
Furthermore, there is a potential threat throughout Europe from people who have been released from detention after a conviction for terrorism. From next year, this could also become more of an issue in the Netherlands: from then on, people will be released with a higher threat profile than many previously released terrorism convicts.
