Israel-Hamas deal in jeopardy

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held up the cabinet vote on the ceasefire deal that prompted premature celebrations in Gaza and was expected to take effect on Sunday, January 19.
The Israeli military has stepped up attacks on the Gaza Strip since the announcement, killing at least 81 Palestinians in the past 24 hours, to the enclave’s Health Ministry. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says Israel has accomplished its goal of destroying Hamas, but later says Hamas has now recruited almost as many fighters as it has lost.

It seems, it is more Hamas than Israel deal Solely stacked against Israel
It is only a partial hostage release and there is nothing that stipulates Hamas must disarm or even any conditions on them

From: Al Jazeera January 16, 2025
What do we know about the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal in Gaza?

First phase
1. Thirty-three Israeli captives, including women, children and civilians over the age of 50 will be released.
2. Israel will release a larger number of Palestinian prisoners during this phase.
3. Israel to withdraw its forces from Gaza’s population centres to areas no more than 700 metres inside Gaza’s border with Israel
4. Israel will allow civilians to return to their homes in the enclave’s besieged north
5. and allow a surge of aid into the enclave of up to 600 trucks per day.
6. Israel will allow wounded Palestinians to leave Gaza for treatment,
7. and will open the Rafah crossing with Egypt seven days after the start of the implementation of the first phase.
8. Israeli forces will reduce their presence in the Philadelphi Corridor, the border area between Egypt and Gaza
9. and then withdraw completely no later than the day 50 after the deal comes into effect.

From: news.com.au January 16, 2025
The ceasefire deal is both a legacy and a precursor

A jubilant Trump vowed to,
“continue to work closely with Israel and our Allies to make sure Gaza NEVER again becomes a terrorist safe haven …”

Will Hamas provide adequate assurances that no further terror attacks are pending?

Hamas’ Hunger Games:
The ceasefire deal may be the Hamas terrorist-political movement’s last chance for survival

“Aside from the losses of their leaders, Hamas’s popularity is falling” Professor Byman states
“Gaza is in ruins and most Gazans, who once supported the attack on Israel, now consider it a mistake”

Hamas has seen almost all of its senior leadership killed and is struggling to balance the need to save face and convince the Palestinian people of its relevance

After 15 months of war, almost 47,000 Gazans have been killed [according to Hamas run Health Ministry] in the fighting.
Israel claims to have killed 17,000 militants.

But the Hamas movement is still fighting for survival And Hamas still exists

“Despite inflicting repeated blows on Hamas, Israel has done nothing to ensure that there is a successor to Hamas in Gaza that can displace it in the long term” notes Professor Byman

“As a result, the group may slowly regenerate, regaining at least some influence in Gaza”

Israel says it is willing to work with any Palestinian not affiliated in any way with Hamas or the Palestinian Authority
It has, however, not specified anyone meeting that criteria

Hamas, for its part, says it will attack anyone who accepts Israeli support

From: news.com.au January 17, 2025
Real reason ceasefire could fall over:

Benjamin Netanyahu is busy blaming Hamas for the delay in an Israeli cabinet meeting to sign off on the ceasefire – but the real reason could be far closer to home.

Mr Netanyahu’s far right allies, who are propping up his government, have demanded the war in Gaza recommence in a little over a month once the hostages are freed.

National security minister Itamar Ben Gvir has come out against the deal.
Israeli ultranationalist minister Itamar Ben Gvir says he will resign and his party is going to leave the coalition if the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal is approved by the cabinet

While finance minister Bezalel Smotrich has said he will quit if Israel doesn’t go back into Gaza after phase one of the ceasefire.
“The deal that will be presented to the government is both bad and dangerous for Israel’s national security,” Mr Smotrich said.

Both men are from far right parties who helped Mr Netanyahu form a minority government. His government could fall if either quit.
The two are also, by far, the most hawkish members of the Israeli government.

However, the ceasefire could still pass as the opposition has pledged to support it.
It has also said it will ensure Mr Netanyahu’s government can still function – for now.

That means Mr Netanyahu has a difficult choice: pass the ceasefire with opposition support but potentially see his government topple at some point. Or reject the ceasefire he approved to maintain his rule.

From: The Times of Israel January 14, 2025
Laying out postwar Gaza vision, Blinken raps Israel’s war strategy, shunning of PA

In lengthy address, outgoing US top diplomat:
1. assesses Hamas has recruited as many members as it has lost,
2. criticizes Israel’s refusal to include Ramallah in ‘day after’ plan

A week before the end of his term as US secretary of state, Antony Blinken laid out the vision of the outgoing US administration of Joe Biden for postwar Gaza, contending that it must include a substantial role for the Palestinian Authority, a notion vehemently opposed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.

In a lengthy address at the Atlantic Council that touched on many aspects of the war and the broader state of the Middle East, Blinken offered extended criticism of Israel’s war strategy, particularly its refusal to devise a plan to replace the Hamas terror group, which, he contended, has recruited as many fighters as it has lost in the 15-month war.

Blinken said the outgoing administration would hand over its proposed roadmap to President-elect Donald Trump’s team to pick up, if a ceasefire deal is reached, as Israel and Hamas appeared to be on the brink of such an agreement.

Blinken said he envisions the Palestinian Authority inviting international partners to help establish and run an interim administration responsible for key civil sectors in Gaza, such as banking, water, energy, health, and civil coordination with Israel.

Blinken said the international community would provide funding, technical support, and oversight to this interim administration in Gaza, without elaborating on who exactly would fund the enterprise.

He said the interim panel would be assembled through consultation with communities in Gaza and should include representatives from the Strip along with representatives from the PA

The committee would work closely with a senior UN official appointed to oversee the international Gaza reconstruction effort.
The temporary committee would be replaced by a reformed PA “as soon as it’s feasible.”

An interim security mission would be made up of troops from US-allied countries, along with vetted Palestinian personnel.
It would be in charge of securing humanitarian aid along with border security and smuggling prevention, Blinken said.

He revealed that some US allies have already expressed their willingness to contribute security forces to the interim mission, but that they have conditioned this support on Israel agreeing to allow the West Bank and Gaza to be reunited under a reformed PA, as part of a pathway to a two-state solution — something Netanyahu has repeatedly rejected.

Blinken said his plan also envisions the US establishing a new initiative to train, equip, and vet a PA-led security force for Gaza, which would gradually take over the interim security mission.

These various frameworks for Gaza’s governance, reconstruction, and security would be enshrined in a UN Security Council resolution.

Blinken’s speech was a subject of controversy within the Biden administration, with:
1. some arguing that it would be exploited by Netanyahu for political gain.
2. others maintained that it could even harm the hostage negotiations.

Another US official told The Times of Israel that the decision to unveil the plan in this manner decreases the likelihood that it will be adopted by the incoming Trump administration, which largely wants to avoid continuing initiatives from the outgoing team.

Recipe for ‘perpetual war’

Blinken criticized Israel’s war strategy, saying Netanyahu’s refusal to advance a viable alternative to Hamas rule in Gaza, such as the PA led the IDF to repeatedly return to places in the Strip it had previously cleared of Hamas fighters who then managed to return.

“We’ve long made the point to the Israeli government that Hamas cannot be defeated by a military campaign alone, that without a clear alternative, a post-conflict plan, and a credible political horizon for the Palestinians, Hamas, or something just as abhorrent and dangerous, will grow back,” Blinken said.

“That’s exactly what’s happened in northern Gaza since October 7
Each time Israel completes its military operations and pulls back, Hamas militants regroup and reemerge because there’s nothing else to fill the void,” he said.

“Indeed, we assess that Hamas has recruited almost as many new militants as it has lost,” Blinken revealed.
“That is a recipe for an enduring insurgency and perpetual war.”

“Israel has pursued its military campaign past the point of destroying Hamas’s military capacity and killing the leaders responsible for October 7 convinced that unrelenting military pressure was required to get Hamas to accept a ceasefire and hostage deal on Israel’s terms,” he said

Blinken added that Hamas has “cynically weaponized the suffering of Palestinians,” and pointed to a Wall Street Journal report that purported to reveal a message that the late Hamas terror leader Yahya Sinwar sent to mediators, in which he called,
1. the death of Palestinian civilians “necessary sacrifices”
2. and argued that the more innocent Palestinians were killed, the more Hamas would benefit.

Blinken panned both the Israeli government and the Palestinian Authority for some of their policies over the past several years.

“Israelis must abandon the myth that they can carry out de facto annexation [of the West Bank] without cost and consequence to Israel’s democracy, to its standing and to its security,” Blinken contended.

He lamented,
“Israel is expanding official settlements and nationalizing land at a faster clip than any time in the last decade, while turning a blind eye to unprecedented growth in illegal outposts.

Violent attacks by extremist settlers against Palestinian civilians have reached record levels,”

Blinken said Israel’s refusal to allow the Palestinian Authority to gain a foothold in Gaza and to accept a time-bound, conditions-based approach for Palestinian statehood has prevented other international actors from accepting Israel’s call to help rebuild Gaza.

He acknowledged that some in Israel argue that heeding those requests would amount to a reward for Hamas.

However, Blinken argued that Hamas is opposed to the two-state solution for which the international community has advocated, and which it sought to quash with the October 7 onslaught.

Israel’s government has systematically undermined the capacity and legitimacy of the only viable alternative to Hamas — the Palestinian Authority,” Blinken said, pointing to Israel’s withholding of hundreds of millions of dollars in Palestinian tax revenues that belong to the PA

“Israelis must decide what relationship they want with the Palestinians.
That cannot be the illusion that Palestinians will accept being a non-people without national rights.

Seven million Israeli Jews and some 5 million Palestinians are rooted in the same land. Neither is going anywhere,” he said.

As for the PA, Blinken said it “repeatedly failed to undertake long-overdue reforms,” including ones to rein in corruption, decrease bloated bureaucracy, and alter its welfare program to cease payments to security prisoners based on the severity of their attack against Israelis.

He also blasted the PA for refusing to consistently and unequivocally condemn Hamas’s October 7, 2023 onslaught, saying it “only entrenched doubts among Israelis that the two communities can ever live side by side in peace.”

Reflecting on the dangerous ripple effects of the war in Gaza, Blinken noted that,
“the more people suffer, the less they feel empathy for the suffering of those on the other side."

He said of the terror group’s 2023 onslaught that started the war, in which some 1,200 were killed and 251 taken hostage, amid widespread and widely documented atrocities against civilians, including attacks on hundreds of families, in their homes and on a music festival.

“Throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds, large majorities believe that October 7 didn’t happen — or if it did, that it was a legitimate attack on Israel’s military,”

“In Israel, there is almost no reporting on the conditions in Gaza and what people there endure every day,” Blinken continued. 
“This dehumanization is one of the greatest tragedies of the conflict.”

Blinken said US officials had debated “vigorously” the Biden administration’s response to the war, a reference to a slew of resignations by officials in his State Department who criticized the policy to continue providing arms and diplomatic cover to Israel.

Others felt Washington held Israel back from inflicting greater damage on Iran and its proxies, he said.

Israel is itself torn over the conduct of the war
Many seek a political deal to secure the release – and lives – of the surviving hostages

And the IDF is reportedly struggling to maintain the morale of reservists exhausted by more than a year of fighting and recruit replacements from among both hard-line Jewish sects and the general populace

Fond farewell to you too, Blinken

The Guardian January 16, 2025
At last knockings, Blinken did not hold back.

1. Israel’s actions in Gaza had recruited as many new Hamas fighters as they had killed, he said.
2. Most Israelis did not know what “dehumanising” things their government and army were doing in their name.
3. More occupation and annexation would guarantee perpetual war; Israel would never find safety that way.

These home truths are anathema to the present Israeli leadership and Netanyahu in particular, who fiercely opposes a two-state solution. And yet it may be largely academic. Blinken and Biden are heading for the door. .

Trump has made no similar commitments, has no such vision for a just and permanent settlement.

Trump sees the Palestinians as losers – and there is no place in his cruel and twisted world for such people.
For him, ending the Middle East war is a business opportunity.

The Times of Israel 17, January 2025
They love Trump, but many on the right loathe the Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal he demanded

In both Israel and the United States, some of those who praised and strongly backed the incoming president deeply oppose the Gaza agreement he is enthusing over and are trashing the hostage deal he is championing as he reenters office — and in some cases, they’re criticizing Trump himself.

The wariness comes after reports that Trump and his incoming Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, turned the screws on Netanyahu to get him to say yes to the ceasefire deal. Upon the deal’s announcement, Trump called it “EPIC.”

On Wednesday, Israeli journalist Shmuel Rosner tweeted,
“Is the right disappointed in Trump? Yes, but they’re not necessarily surprised. The Israeli right doesn’t have heavenly faith in the president. And that was before it became known that he put pressure on the question of a hostage deal.”

On Tuesday, as a deal appeared imminent, Itamar Ben-Gvir — Israel’s far-right national security minister said,
“The coalescing agreement is an agreement of surrender to Hamas.”

Likewise, the American Jewish organization that has most celebrated Trump, the Zionist Organization of America, has come out vocally against the deal — without naming the incoming president, cheerleading it.

ZOA in 2022 gave Trump its Herzl Award, a rare honor from the group, and its president, Morton Klein, called him
“the best friend Israel ever had in the White House.”

This week alone, the group has sent out three emails to its list opposing the deal.

“Alleged Deal Would Mean More Jews Will Be Murdered and Kidnapped; a Hamas Victory and Resurgence,” one message says.
It did not mention Trump.

Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton opted to blame outgoing US President Joe Biden for the agreement, without mentioning that Trump’s team worked closely with Biden’s and staunchly supported the agreement.

“Why is lame duck Joe Biden trying to cram down a bad deal on Israel on his way out the door?” Cotton tweeted.
“The only ‘deal’ should be unconditional surrender by Hamas—which is already nearly destroyed—and return of ALL hostages.”

One user responded, “Ask Trump.”

The Times of Israel 17, January 2025
With hostage deal, Netanyahu is going all in, on Trump

The prime minister is risking a schism with his closest political allies to advance a deal with Hamas.
He has good reason to think it’s worth the gamble

A great many Israelis, especially on the right, are horrified at the costs Israel will pay in the first phase:
a 1,000 Palestinian prisoners released, some of them arch-terrorists and murderers.

The hunt for Hamas in Gaza — that long, painful degradation war that has exacted a high cost from Israeli soldiers and families and a much higher one for Gazans and, they believe, must not end with Hamas still in power — will grind to a halt and may not be easy to restart.

If the deal is signed, these Israelis believe,
1. Hamas will survive the war,
2. its forces will be bolstered,
3. its reputation restored,
4. its future control of Gaza all but assured.

The Times of Israel 17, January 2025
The second deal

All of which begs the question: Why would Netanyahu be committing to a deal that has so many political risks for him?

The deal now on the table is not, despite Biden’s claims, the same deal offered in May.

Key Israeli demands that Hamas refused in the spring have now been met, including the rate of hostage release and the significant Israeli presence in Philadelphi in phase 1

But why would Hamas suddenly be willing to make those concessions?

And why would Netanyahu, who has clung tightly to his coalition’s rightist flank for 16 months, suddenly be willing to risk a political showdown?

There are two deals on the table this week: We know a great deal about the first and very little about the second.
1. Netanyahu’s deal with Hamas
2. and Netanyahu’s deal with the incoming Trump administration.

Netanyahu’s change of heart seemed to come in conversations with Trump officials, from the president-elect himself down to Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff — so much so that some Arab officials have suggested that one meeting on Saturday between Netanyahu and Witkoff did more to bring Netanyahu around than a year of Biden administration cajoling.

(It must be said for those who take this to mean that Netanyahu was the chief obstacle to a deal: Hamas had never actually agreed to any previous version of this deal.)

But what could the Trump team have offered Netanyahu to make a showdown with Smotrich and Ben Gvir suddenly palatable?

Publicly, the answer seems to be a promise to resume the war.

In his Senate confirmation hearing for his appointment as secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth told the senators bluntly,
“I support Israel destroying and killing every last member of Hamas.”

And in an interview with the Call Me Back podcast, incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz said Trump sought to fundamentally change the dynamic that encouraged terrorist groups to take hostages.

Waltz charged.
“Terrorist groups and rogue states have been taking Americans hostage, and they’ve only seen upside [for doing so for] the last four years,” “So why not take more?

Why not take as many as you can and see what you get? With President Trump, he made it very clear very early — not just with Hamas, with groups around the world — there’ll be nothing but downside.”

Hamas, Waltz told interviewer Dan Senor, “has to be destroyed to the point that it cannot reconstitute.”

Could Netanyahu be channeling a solemn commitment from Trump when he promises Smotrich a resumption of the war after phase 1?

Speaking to Fox News on Wednesday evening, moreover, Waltz specified that the US will back Israel if it needs to reenter Gaza.
“We’ve made it very clear to the Israelis, and I want the people of Israel to hear me on this:

If they need to go back in, we’re with them,” he said. “If Hamas doesn’t live up to the terms of this agreement, we are with them.”

The Times of Israel 17, January 2025
Playing nice

Hamas desperately needs a deal.

It acquiesced to Israeli demands it has long rejected out of hand, such as leaving Israeli forces in Philadelphi during phase 1, where they will be able to prevent its rearming through the border tunnels to Egypt for the duration of at least that stage of the ceasefire.

Over the past 16 months, it lost its chief backers, Hezbollah and Iran.
Its Houthi allies in Yemen have gone from devoted ally to cautionary tale for the rest of the region.

Israeli airstrikes in Hodeida and Ras Issa in the war-wracked country have all but eliminated the Houthi capacity to export oil and gas.

And Trump, of course, reshuffles the deck.
Israelis are convinced they will have a freer hand against their enemies in the region after January 20

And so this deal marks a softening of Hamas’s demands — including the rather significant previous demand for an Israeli commitment in advance not to resume fighting after phase 1. The rebuilding of Gaza will also only begin in the later phases.

Why would Hamas,
1. accept this truce, that is so much less than the strategic removal of the Israeli presence it had held out for since November 2023?
2. leave Israel able and apparently eager to roar back into the war the moment 33 hostages are in Israel’s hands?

Perhaps for the same reason Netanyahu seems so keen on a deal: Trump.

Trump’s arrival has fundamentally changed the dynamic.
Given the comments of Hegseth and Waltz, Netanyahu can reasonably expect to have American backing for any future escalation.

The Times of Israel 17, January 2025
Trump has repeatedly criticized the Israeli war effort for being slow, indecisive and “losing the PR war.”

And so a new dynamic is in play.
Israel can do what it takes to win, but Trump, it appears, wants it to show it is willing to try a ceasefire, publicly and clearly.

When Hamas inevitably tries to rearm or launch a rocket, Israel will have its excuse to return to fighting, perhaps better prepared and with better intelligence penetration of the Hamas ranks than on October 8, 2023

And in the meantime, it will have handed Trump his political win in the form of a ceasefire, and won his backing for a more intensive fight against Hamas.

If that’s the basic dynamic, it explains much of Netanyahu’s and Hamas’s actions over the past two weeks.

It explains why Netanyahu is standing up to far-right resistance.

Smotrich and Ben Gvir’s public anger serves to highlight the conciliatory stance Netanyahu wants to project, to the incoming Trump administration.

Hamas understands this moment as well as Netanyahu.

It needed to obtain just enough from an agreement to be able to claim a victory, and then to adhere to whatever is obtained in order to deny Netanyahu the political cover with Trump for a return to war.

Ironically, that’s a position of weakness for Hamas, and Netanyahu appears to have taken advantage of it — and so,
1. there are more hostages coming out,
2. a slower Israeli redeployment
3. and no guarantees of an end to fighting.

Yet Hamas retains one great advantage over Netanyahu: Its bar for “victory” is extremely low.
It doesn’t need to win; it doesn’t need to rebuild its capabilities.

It only needs to be able to claim it survived, even if what survived is a bare fragment of the original organization, now reduced to sending teenagers to fight, overseeing a ruined economy and unable to rebuild Gaza.

The simple fact that it still exists is “victory.”

Trump has already taken credit, and Netanyahu will continue to credit him.

1. Netanyahu will almost certainly sign the deal. Hamas will too.
2. Netanyahu will eat a lot of political crow, especially from his rightist base.
3. Hamas will declare victory and parade through the streets of Gaza.
4. And Hamas will play by the rules as well as it possibly can.

And in the meantime, Israel will work ferociously to build out the kind of intelligence infiltration in Gaza that it possessed in Lebanon.
It will spend the ceasefire preparing the offensive Netanyahu seems to believe will be permitted him at the end of phase 1

If this is indeed Netanyahu’s calculation, then the deal he will soon sign is a reasonable gambit and a serious strategy.

Smotrich: Cease-fire/hostage deal with Hamas is 'a bad and dangerous deal' "We oppose it with all force."


From: The Australian January 18, 2025
‘Victory’ sets up Hamas’ next war

The deal releases many hundreds of hardened Islamist criminals, now free to return to their murderous ways.

From: The Guardian January 17, 2025
Hamas, Hezbollah and other militia are enfeebled – but Palestine is likely to stay at forefront of global politics

“Gaza has been a gamechanger for Israel.
1. Its reputation has been badly damaged,
2. there are the international criminal cases [against Israeli leaders]
3. the global moral backlash
4. and the conflict has pushed the Palestinians up the international agenda.

Alia Brahimi, a regional expert at the Atlantic Council, said,
"There is now a whole new generation of global citizens who believe the Palestinians should be free,”

For an organisation like Hamas simply to survive a big conflict is an achievement, and means Israel has failed to achieve one of its primary war aims

From: The Associated Press January 18, 2025
Russia signs deal with US' long-time enemy

The presidents of Russia and Iran sign a partnership treaty in a Kremlin ceremony
Russian and Iranian officials say the "comprehensive strategic partnership treaty" covers all areas – from trade and military cooperation to science, education and culture.

Russia's ties with Iran have grown closer after Putin sent troops into Ukraine in February 2022
Ukraine and the West have accused Tehran of providing Moscow with hundreds of drones for use to attack Ukraine, which Moscow and Tehran have denied.

Last year, Iran joined the BRICS bloc of developing economies and Pezeshkian attended its summit, which was hosted by Russia in Kazan.

In particular, Iran wants sophisticated Russian weapons like long-range air defense systems and fighter jets to help fend off possible attacks by Israel.

Russia and Iran also pooled their efforts to shore up Bashar Assad's government during Syria's civil war, but failed to prevent his downfall last month after a lightning offensive by the opposition. Assad and his family fled to Russia.

His ouster dealt another blow to Tehran's self-described "Axis of Resistance" across the region, which had already been pummeled by Israel's offensives against two militant groups backed by Iran – Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Israel also attacked Iran directly on two occasions (after Iranian attacks on Israel)

Tehran increasingly needs Moscow's assistance as it faces economic woes and stinging setbacks across its sphere of influence in the Middle East.

In particular, Iran wants sophisticated Russian weapons like long-range air defense systems and fighter jets to help fend off possible attacks by Israel.

Pezeshkian, who met Putin for the third time since coming to power in July, said the documents form a "solid foundation for our forward movement."

Pezeshkian's visit comes ahead of Monday's inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has pledged to broker peace in Ukraine and take a tougher stance on Iran, which is grappling with,
1. growing economic problems,
2. bruising international sanctions
3. and other challenges, including military setbacks in its sphere of influence across the Middle East.

The troubles could deepen after Trump returns to the White House with his policy of "maximum pressure" on Iran.

The Iranian president emphasised that countries in the region should resolve their own problems themselves, adding in an apparent reference to the US that the presence of outside forces will only exacerbate tensions and destabilise the situation.

"They come from another side of the world to make chaos in the region," he said. "These ties will defuse their plot, definitely."

Most world leaders understand it's a time of Realpolitik with Trump as POTUS.

From: Al Jazeera January 17, 2025
What has Netanyahu won and lost by agreeing to Israel-Gaza ceasefire?

Israeli PM may lose influential supporters but could still rework his alliances and survive politically.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have finally relented.
After more than a year of refusing to agree to an end to the war in Gaza, he is now pushing through a ceasefire that – mediators insist – will do just that.

Netanyahu’s government met on Friday to approve the deal, which would involve,
1. a captive and prisoner exchange,
2. a gradual Israeli withdrawal from Gaza
3. and the end of the devastating war Israel has unleashed, on the Palestinian enclave
(in response to Hamas' brutal terror unleashed, on Israel October 7, 2023)

The implementation is set to begin on Sunday, and that is when the recriminations for the Israeli prime minister are likely to begin as he faces off opposition from within his own government.

That opposition is parroting back the very lines that he has long insisted on: no end to the war without the destruction of Hamas.

Far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who has proudly declared that he has used his power to prevent any captive release agreement from taking place over the past year, has declared the current deal on the table “terrible” and insisted he and his party will quit the government if it is implemented.

But that won’t be enough to bring the Netanyahu government down.
Ben-Gvir needs the backing of his fellow far-right traveller Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and his Religious Zionism party.

Smotrich appears willing to go ahead with the deal but only in its first phase, which would see the release of some of the Israeli captives.

After that, Religious Zionism has said its members would resign from the government unless the war on Gaza – which has so far killed more than 46,700 Palestinians (according to Hamas run Health Ministry) – continues.

The Trump factor:
Despite those threats to his rule, Netanyahu looks to be pressing ahead.

The planned beginning of the ceasefire comes a day before the deadline set by incoming United States President-elect Donald Trump, Monday being the day of his inauguration.

The Israeli far right had seen Trump – a pro-Israel Republican who plans to bring several politicians with strong ties to the Israeli settler movement into his administration – as their man, a president who would look the other way as the movement fulfils its dream of building illegal settlements in Gaza and forcing out its population.

For now that appears to not be the case, and Trump has emphasised that he wants an end to the war before he takes office.

While on first reading that could be a negative for Netanyahu, perceptions that the Trump administration may have forced his hand, can be politically useful to the Israeli prime minister in the short term, allowing him more room to manoeuvre in the future.

“This may be more transactional than many suppose,” Mairav Zonszein, an Israel expert with the International Crisis Group, said, suggesting that the hand of Israel’s longest serving leader might not be so easily forced.

“By agreeing now, Netanyahu may have bought himself greater freedom to act in the West Bank and in determining whatever future that is agreed for Gaza,” she said, referring to far-right Israeli plans to annex the occupied Palestinian territory, which is dotted with Israeli settlements, which are illegal under international law.

“Everybody knew that, at some point, the captives would have to be exchanged. That was always the case."
For many people, that’s not even a security issue.

Political reality:
Netanyahu has been closely associated with the far-right members of his government since he came back into office at the end of 2022

It was Ben-Gvir and Smotrich who backed Netanyahu when others on the Israeli right had abandoned him over his ongoing corruption trial and unpopularity among large segments of the Israeli public.

Without them, he would not have been able to cobble a governing coalition together, and without them, so the thinking goes, his government would fall, and with it, any chance at granting himself immunity from prosecution.

But Netanyahu, long known as the great survivor, appears to have another plan for survival.

The majority of people in his government back the ceasefire, including the important ultra-Orthodox religious bloc.
The opposition has also said it is willing to give Netanyahu a safety net to get the deal through.

The prime minister has always had a good sense of where the feeling of the Israeli public is, and, analysts said, he may have picked up that the mood is now more open to a deal that would see the captives return home and an end to the war.

It helps that Israel can argue that it has re-established deterrence and its enemies – including Hamas, the Lebanese group Hezbollah and most importantly Iran – have been dealt heavy blows.

"What is a security issue for many is who will govern in Gaza,” Zonszein said, referring to the third phase of the ceasefire agreement, before going on to suggest that by agreeing to the ceasefire now, Netanyahu could be more certain of US goodwill when dealing with Gaza, in the future.

Israeli political scientist Ori Goldberg said, the triumphalism over those geopolitical wins has given way to,
1. a sense of acceptance
2. and resignation that the war needs to end.

“Nobody’s really celebrating,” Goldberg said. “Everyone knew this had to come. Israelis have been living in a kind of daze these last 15 months. Life has become hard for many Israelis, not as hard as we’ve made it for Palestinians, but hard.”

“For 15 months, we’ve been told that we’re just on the verge of absolute victory, but we’ve achieved nothing other than destruction and killing,” Goldberg added. “We’re tired. Don’t misunderstand me – many people would still obliterate Gaza if it guaranteed security – but we’ve been doing our best, and we still don’t have it.”

“Israelis are spent,” “With luck, those first six weeks should be enough to develop some momentum towards a settlement.”

Counting the costs:
Netanyahu, therefore, may be able to capitalise on the public sentiment and even present himself as the one who ended the war and achieved several strategic goals before any new elections, earning himself another stay of political execution.

But for Israeli society, there is a cost to waging war on a scale that rights groups have characterised as genocide besides,
1. the captives held in Gaza,
2. the soldiers returning from Gaza and Lebanon, in coffins
3. and Israel’s growing international isolation.

In fact, for many observers, the Israel emerging from the carnage of Gaza is one far removed from the state that existed before the Hamas-led attacks of October 7, 2023 which killed 1,139 people.

Over the ensuing war, the right-wing extremes of Israeli politics have staked a claim to the centre while the reach of the security services has extended beyond the limits many thought previously possible.