It acquiesced to Israeli demands it has long rejected out of hand, such as leaving Israeli forces in Philadelphi during phase 1, where they will be able to prevent its rearming through the border tunnels to Egypt for the duration of at least that stage of the ceasefire.
Over the past 16 months, it lost its chief backers, Hezbollah and Iran. Its Houthi allies in Yemen have gone from devoted ally to cautionary tale for the rest of the region.
Israeli airstrikes in Hodeida and Ras Issa in the war-wracked country have all but eliminated the Houthi capacity to export oil and gas.
And Trump, of course, reshuffles the deck. Israelis are convinced they will have a freer hand against their enemies in the region after January 20
And so this deal marks a softening of Hamas’s demands — including the rather significant previous demand for an Israeli commitment in advance not to resume fighting after phase 1. The rebuilding of Gaza will also only begin in the later phases.
Why would Hamas, 1. accept this truce, that is so much less than the strategic removal of the Israeli presence it had held out for since November 2023? 2. leave Israel able and apparently eager to roar back into the war the moment 33 hostages are in Israel’s hands?
Perhaps for the same reason Netanyahu seems so keen on a deal: Trump.
Trump’s arrival has fundamentally changed the dynamic. Given the comments of Hegseth and Waltz, Netanyahu can reasonably expect to have American backing for any future escalation.
