From: Institute for the Study of War January 31, 2025
Israel’s Operational Success and Strategic Shortcomings in the Gaza Strip

The Israeli campaign into the Gaza Strip was a military success but has fallen short thus far of setting conditions to replace Hamas as a governing entity.

The Israeli government enumerated three objectives at the beginning of the war:
1. destroy Hamas’ military,
2. return the hostages
3. and destroy Hamas’ government.

These objectives—though expansive—were achievable through a combination of military and political action.

The Israeli campaign succeeded in destroying Hamas’ military and securing a ceasefire that would release the hostages.

The campaign has also isolated Hamas in the Gaza Strip, though Israel and its partners will need to ensure that Hamas remains contained.

But neither Israel nor the United States has tried seriously to achieve a political end state that would build upon this military success and permanently replace Hamas as a governing entity in the Gaza Strip.

Israel’s failure to achieve this final war aim means that the strip will remain without an alternative governance structure and security broker, and Hamas remnants will inevitably try to fill that role again, especially as the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdraw.

Hamas will use this space to reassert its political authority and reconstitute its forces—unless the United States and Israel take further steps to prevent those things from occurring.