Spoilers:
If the US ethnically cleanses Gaza, even temporarily, Smotrich, Ben-Gvir and their allies would feel closer to their long-nurtured hope of colonising it than they have ever been before.

If, as Pinkas suggests, Trump’s intervention leads to the collapse of the ceasefire, they at least get the return to the war they supported through 16 months of unrestrained carnage.

In both cases, Netanyahu would likely emerge stronger, either through a unified and combined cabinet or as a war leader, defending what he frames as the “Jewish homeland”.

Even the threat of an early election, Barak suggested, may play to the prime minister’s end: “New elections would make any government a transitional one,”

He said, referring to the various challenges the government faces in addition to the potential threat posed by its right, such as the upcoming budget and the debate over drafting Israel’s ultra-Orthodox, “meaning it wouldn’t have to overcome any of those hurdles.

Anything that gives Netanyahu time is always good for him. He’s done this before.”