From: The Guardian February 12, 2025
The group now appears to have three courses of action.

It can cut its losses and carry out its threat to delay Saturday’s planned hostage release, which will mean a return to fighting.

While resuming hostilities is likely to trigger another mass exodus of Palestinian civilians to southern Gaza and dramatically worsen the strip’s humanitarian crisis, this is a way for Hamas to save face without giving up any more hostages, which remain its main leverage over Israel.

It could also call Trump and Israel’s bluff by releasing more than three hostages.

While it is logistically unlikely that the group could deliver all 76 – at least 30 of whom are dead – in one go, it could feasibly release the eight living captives due to come home in the first stage of the deal, in effect forcing talks to begin on implementing the second and third phases of the ceasefire ahead of schedule.

Hamas also knows that if it does deliver the three hostages scheduled for release on Saturday, as planned, Israel is unlikely to withdraw from the agreement.

This route would keep the truce alive, and to some extent defang Trump’s threats, although the president is unlikely to suffer such humiliation lightly.

Which path the group will take will become clear on Friday night, when Hamas is supposed to deliver the names of the three hostages before their release.

If they do not materialise, Israel will have ample justification to resume the war, with Trump’s blessing – an outcome that will let Netanyahu, the ultimate political Houdini, keep his rightwing coalition government intact.

The ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is hanging by a thread after just three weeks, which does not bode well for its future.

More than 2 million people in Gaza, and hundreds of Israelis still desperate for captive loved ones to return, have no choice but to hold their breath.