Hamas also knows Israel is at an impasse in negotiations.

It knows that the Jewish state has moved the talks to a more political level and that it stalled for time because of claims by Israel’s leadership that they wouldn’t go into phase two.

While Hamas faced some diminishing returns in parading hostages, preferring a quiet release last week as the first stage of the deal came to an end, the terror group also feels it can pressure Israel.

At the end of the day, it is playing a high-stakes and dangerous game.

However, the group also knows that in the past, Israel was not very good at negotiating ceasefires.
It assumes now that Israel has a ceasefire, it will have a hard time jumping right back into the war.

If Hamas can get Ramadan as a ceasefire and not return more hostages, it will have won.
If it feels pressured by a return to fighting, it might reconsider.

However, it showed in 2024 that fighting doesn’t necessarily pressure it as long as it holds on to the central camps in Gaza and holds hostages.