International • 15:08 • Modified at 15:08 'US peace plan is intended as a reverse Kissinger policy' Author : BNR Web Editors Trump's attempts to reach an agreement between Ukraine and Russia should be seen in the context of a 'reverse Kissinger policy'. This is what professor of international politics David Criekemans of the University of Antwerp says in the BNR podcast Boekestijn en De Wijk. Where Kissinger managed to pull China out of the Soviet Union's sphere of influence in 1972, Trump now wants to separate Russia from China.
That idea is not realistic, says Criekemans. 'But I think we are always looking for rationality, where it is not present. Trump wants to realize it, but it is not feasible.'
Peace plan What is known about the American 'peace plan' should be seen in that light, he says. The Americans propose, among other things, that Russia should be allowed to keep all the territory it has conquered, that Ukraine should not be allowed to become a member of NATO, that there should be no American security guarantees for Ukraine, without concessions being requested from the Russian side.
Ukraine can still go quite far in maintaining the status quo on the ground. That has to do with the very effective fortifications, says Rob de Wijk.
According to Criekemans, this one-sided approach stems from Trump's idea that this is the fastest way 'to get rid of the annoying problem of Ukraine and focus on real geopolitics.' By this, Criekemans means China. 'That is the real danger according to Trump and his entourage and it is their intention to separate Russia from its Chinese partner.'
'Trump is sitting there at the table with real estate guy Steve Witkoff. He is sitting there like Alice in Wonderland' Rob de Wijk At the same time, there seems little reason to believe that Russia will ever join the Western camp against China. 'America wants to set up economic projects with Russia to control the geopolitical game, but that seems to me an illusion.'
Meanwhile, the Americans seem to be outflanked on all sides by the Russians at the negotiating table, Rob de Wijk also sees. 'Russian negotiators are seasoned. They are incredibly skilled at throwing up smokescreens and manipulating their opponents, in this case Trump. And he is sitting there at the table with a real estate guy, Steve Witkoff. He is sitting there like Alice in Wonderland.'
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The Russian objective in the negotiations seems clear: to stall. But it is also questionable whether that is in Russian interests. If the US withdraws from the negotiations because Trump loses interest, it is certainly not certain that Russia will emerge from the war as the big winner.
Russian overstretch 'Ukraine can still go quite far in maintaining the status quo on the ground. That has to do with the very effective fortifications. Russia cannot continue to attack forever. At some point it stops,' De Wijk outlines.
And it is also not impossible that a long-running conflict will cost Russia its head. 'If things go wrong in Russia, it will be because of 'overstretch'. That the Russian defense industry is withdrawing so many resources from the civilian economy that at some point the whole thing simply collapses. That is what ultimately happened in the Cold War. It is quite possible that Russia is now organizing its own downfall. But you can't plan for that.'
