I think it is a good deal even without security guarantees the Americans will be into it for a long term at least for 10 years to get the minerals, oil and gas out of the ground.

International • May 1, 5:16 PM • Modified on May 1, 5:16 PM
'The Russians didn't expect this either'
Author : Bram van Eijndhoven
The long-awaited minerals deal between Ukraine and the US has finally been concluded, although much remains unclear about the precise terms. 'What does seem certain is that it is without American security guarantees', says defence specialist Patrick Bolder of the Hague Centre for Strategic Studies. 'Then you would say: why is Ukraine signing up for this?'

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The Russians didn't expect this either

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However, anyone who looks more closely at the deal will probably conclude that Ukraine is not doing badly at all, according to Bolder. According to the defense specialist, American President Trump seems to be giving Ukraine, not Russia, a 'gift' for the first time. 'The signing of the deal was accompanied by the words that this is in the spirit of a long-term and just peace in Ukraine. That is a sound we have not heard from the Trump administration before.'

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The agreement does not provide any security guarantees, but according to Trump, the Russians will not dare to attack Ukraine if American companies are active there. A rather thin guarantee, but also not illogical reasoning, according to Bolder.

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The commodity deal explicitly does not make a direct connection with the war, nor does it mention territorial concessions. According to Bolder, Trump was yearning for an international deal after the economic malaise he plunged the world into with his trade war. 'That's why he was so happy to agree to this. He's on tenterhooks, and he has to show something positive again after yesterday's bad economic figures.'

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Certainly also important in the realization of the deal was the fifteen-minute meeting with Zelensky in Rome at the funeral of the Pope. 'Then Trump also left with the idea that Putin might be stringing him along, that is also what Zelensky told him. And that he needs to show more decisiveness,' according to Bolder.

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The mineral deal has done little to improve Trump's reputation in Russia, Bolder knows. Until a few days ago, he was presented on Russian state television as the great leader of the West with whom you could do business, but now he is suddenly being compared to Hitler. 'The Russians did not expect this either, were shocked by it and have to adjust their narrative again.'