Sperling's Best Places uses FBI data that show that both Phoenix and Tucson are on a par with Jersey City for violent and property crime rates, and are much higher than Newark. I can't draw a definitive conclusion from those data. Arizona is now the fastest growing state in the nation, so you might infer that population growth (and hence criminal activity) is outstripping police resources. Or, if growth were stable and police presence were appropriate to population, perhaps crime rates would be reduced, as they have been in Newark. But I can't say that for sure. The nightly TV newscasts in AZ always lead with violent crimes--but they do in NJ and NYC, too.