Plaw, I think a few things can explain the dilemma:
- Although it may be a minor point, the coaching points are a factor. Your coach has to win to even keep up with the average. If he loses, you are already at least 2 - 4 points in the hole. Also, there's no such thing as a 10 point coach win to make up for a loss on a previous night.
- Like you said, I think the sample size is too small.
- In this game, it is a lot more likely for a person to score x points below his average than x points above his average. It's because, by nature of the game, we choose players who are hot at the time, meaning they are scoring as high as they can possibly score given their point value. Therefore, although the game actually calls it their average, a better description is that we are playing them given their ceiling. Who here thinks that Tyson Chandler's average is 25 points a game? If you agree with me, then it makes sense that players are more likely to score below their ceiling than above.
- As you mentioned, not only do injuries play a factor but also mid-game injuries (Tim Duncan) and players being thrown out of games (KG) affects our scoring as well.
