Posted by Baltimore Crab Cake
posted November 20, 2003 02:59 PM
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"What's the odds of this. SP and I have the exact same roster, right down to our Coach. "
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Well, let's see... One over the number of players available at each position (including coach), to the fifth power.

In other words, there are 2 games tonight. Four teams involved. Four "feasible" picks (No one's gonna pick the scrubs) for each position.

You pick "Player A". SP has a 1/4 chance of also picking "Player A". So the chances of both of you picking "Player A" is 1/4.

(DB, feel free to jump in aanywhere here)

Now do that 5 more times for the other four positions and coach, and you get 1/4 to the 5th power, or 1/4096, or, expressed in odds, 4095-1, or, as a percentage, 0.0002441.

That number, 4096, is also the number of ways a 6 man roster can be arranged if there are 4 choices at each position, but because of salary cap restrictions, there are any number of the 4096 combinations which have to be excluded.

(Jump in anywhere, DB)

For exanple, tonight picking McGrady, Duncan, Marbury, Nowitzki, and any center I believe, would put you over the cap.

So, to answer your question "What are the odds?"
The answer is "I don't know". Less than 4096 to 1, though.