Close Plaw... You are absolutely correct that the chances of Bethie picking a 6 member team out of 4 teams playing is 1 out of 4096 (4 to the sixth power) As you mentioned, the probability is probably less by virtue of player value restrictions- you might have only 2 or 3 of the 4 players available to you once you chose a high value player at another position).

However, we are talking about the probability of two people having the same team. That means whatever probability that Bethie has in picking her team, SP has the same probability (up to a max of 1 out of 4096).

Therefore, the probability of both having the same exact team is 1 out of 16,777,216 (4096*4096).

It's much like two people flipping coins. Both have a 1 out of 2 chance of getting heads or tails. There is a 1 out of 4 chance of both getting heads, both getting tails, one getting heads while the other tails (and vice versa).