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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236574
04/21/04 04:05 AM
04/21/04 04:05 AM
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 4,595
fathersson
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 4,595
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Originally posted by Irishman12: Man, another 60+ night for me! WOO HOO! Now I'm having fun You bet. But keep it down, Fun isn't allowed in the game. You will get Pee upset. Some of my best times were down in the basement. (wipes a tear from his eye) If only you could get on top of LDV, now you would be talking FUN! and another mile marker that you will always remember at your age. Bethie, haven't you been teaching this kid anything down in the basement? Take the rookie under your....WING, yes that is right wing. OH, and Another Happy Birthday wish to you, You can never have to many. After all it only comes once a year.
ONLY gun owners have the POWER to PROTECT and PRESERVE our FREEDOM. "...it is their (the people's) right and duty to be at all times armed" - Thomas Jefferson, June 5, 1824
Everyone should read. "HOW TO KILL A MOCKING BIRD"
CAUTION: This Post has not been approved by Don Cardi.
You really don't expect people to believe your shit do you?
Read: "The Daily Apple"- Telling America and the Gangster BB like it really is!
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236578
04/21/04 07:33 AM
04/21/04 07:33 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by J Geoff: Of course, pitching is everything. But, such stats aren't.
Of course, I'm looking at "last week"... it will normalize itself soon enough for the season....
A W is only worth 5 pts. Can't worry yourself about that, only. :p Obviously, ERA has the most predictive value with respect to a league member's number of pitching points. Since everyone starts each day with a positive pitching total 27, it's earned runs allowed that have the biggest impact. An extra point, plus or minus, for a strikeout, hit walk, etc. doesn't mean a heck of a lot in the long run. But wins are the second most important pitching stat though, since it's an all or nothing 5 points. It's like almost two extra earned runs your PS did or did not allow, which I think you'd agree is extremely significant. To say that "A Win is only worth 5 pts. Can't worry yourself about that, only." is plain silly. Earned runs allowed and Wins are the two most important pitching ststs in the game. As far as the stats "normalizing" themselves, I agree. I'd guess that at season's end, the guy with the best W-L Record also has the best ERA and the most pitching points, and is the winner. And that the guy with the second best W-L also has the second best ERA and the second most pitching points, and finishes second. It may not follow exactly right down the line, but I bet it's real, real close, just as it was last year. Hell, it's close already. Last week's wild fluctuations between W-L and ERA were due strictly to games when a PS got badly beat up on, as such fluctuations usually are.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236587
04/21/04 09:35 AM
04/21/04 09:35 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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And here I am waiting for DB's comments on my analysis of JG's comments about the pitching stats, and this is what I get :rolleyes: Bethie I'll excuse 'cause it's her birthday, but the rest of you should be ashamed of yourselves. :p
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236588
04/21/04 09:39 AM
04/21/04 09:39 AM
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 4,595
fathersson
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 4,595
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Originally posted by Beth E: Yup, playing with girls usually does make it go soft. I have a Woody today for my birthday, so no worries. But I'm like the Statue of Liberty: "Bring me your tired, poor and huddled masses". Yes, Bethie, That is your Birthday Woody ! as far as the statue thing...sounds like you are looking for all the street people in New York.
ONLY gun owners have the POWER to PROTECT and PRESERVE our FREEDOM. "...it is their (the people's) right and duty to be at all times armed" - Thomas Jefferson, June 5, 1824
Everyone should read. "HOW TO KILL A MOCKING BIRD"
CAUTION: This Post has not been approved by Don Cardi.
You really don't expect people to believe your shit do you?
Read: "The Daily Apple"- Telling America and the Gangster BB like it really is!
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236590
04/21/04 09:44 AM
04/21/04 09:44 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
Don Sicilia
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
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Hold your horses, plaw... I was getting to it... I agree more with you plaw... ERA and win/loss, in that order, are the most important stats in this game when it comes to pitching. The trouble with analyzing last week, as JG did, is that we all, save BD, did poorly. Lots of wild high scoring wins and even more significantly, some of us had negative scores to skew our points. Negative scores are outliers for all of us and will tend to skew any analysis.
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236592
04/21/04 09:51 AM
04/21/04 09:51 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by fathersson: do you go with some older guys who may not have it every time out anymore? They have pills for that.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236595
04/21/04 10:03 AM
04/21/04 10:03 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Don't know. Haven't needed the pills yet.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236597
04/21/04 10:20 AM
04/21/04 10:20 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by fathersson: Well, we all know that Pitching can give you the most points in any one section of this game. But it comes with the chance of also giving you negative points. True not very often, but there still is a chance. A guy goes 0-4 or doesn't play doesn'thelp you that night, but he doesn't hurt you either. Now if a guy did go 0-4 and they took some points away then that would take it to a whole new level. The occasional negative total you get from pitching (which makes pitching even more important) notwithstanding, the bottom line is that over the course of the season you can expect to get about 30% of your total points from pitching, so pitching is by far the most important facet of the game since the amount of salary cap value you spend is dis-proportionately low for the number of points you get. As far as a guy not playing or going 0-4 not hurting you, I would disagree. I think DB can explain this better than I can, since he probably knows the correct terminoly, but I'll give it a quick shot: I'd guess that, on average, you can expect to get about 25-30 points a night from offense. A great nght would be about 60. An unbelievable night would be about 80. A horrible night is about 10. It's kinda like the +27 you start with every day in pitching, and then add and subtract from there. So your expected value, per player, is about +2.5 or +3. When a guy gets zero, in effect, he has hurt you in a negative way because you got no points. Think of it this way: The realistic potential spread in offensive points for a day is anywhere from 0 to 80, with an expectancy of about 25 or 30. So the guy that goes 0-4, in effect, got you a -4 for the night. Same thing in pitching, except the fluctuation goes from maybe +40 to -40. I'm not getting my point across, I know. DB?
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236598
04/21/04 10:42 AM
04/21/04 10:42 AM
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 4,595
fathersson
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 4,595
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I understand what you are saying about a player still hurting you if he goes 0-4 say. I guess what I should have said is that a player can only add to your total, but pitching can make your total backslide and take away positive numbers already put up by another hot player. You may miss your chance to get score from a player, but he is not going to put you in a hole like pitching can. I feel that if you can get 20 points from ps and another 3points Avg. per player then you have done all right for that night. Hell, if you can avg. 40-50 points per night you would be doing fine. Seems a lot harder to do each night then people think. Look how the Astro's let me down last night. I feel like I had a good team last night. Got great dollar value in every position. Sure I would admit that I could do more research on the day to day players habits and such, who catches for who and who plays when others aren't but you know I like time for other things in life.
ONLY gun owners have the POWER to PROTECT and PRESERVE our FREEDOM. "...it is their (the people's) right and duty to be at all times armed" - Thomas Jefferson, June 5, 1824
Everyone should read. "HOW TO KILL A MOCKING BIRD"
CAUTION: This Post has not been approved by Don Cardi.
You really don't expect people to believe your shit do you?
Read: "The Daily Apple"- Telling America and the Gangster BB like it really is!
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#236600
04/21/04 10:48 AM
04/21/04 10:48 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Isn't this more fun than talking about woodies, and "pills for that", and spanking, and masturbation, and such? :p
Intelligent discourse among educated men.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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