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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238136
07/12/04 08:17 AM
07/12/04 08:17 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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This was like a football game that's tied 14-14 with a minute to go, and one team scores to make it 21-14. The other teams gets the ball, and promptly throws an interception which is run back for a TD, and the final score is 28-14.
Or a baseball game that's tied 1-1 after eight, then the visting team scores five in the top of the ninth, and wins 6-1.
Or a basketball game that's tied 90-90 with three minutes to go, and one team reels of the last 12 points to win 102-90.
Or a hockey game that's tied 1-1 with a minute to go, and one team scores to make it 2-1, so the team that's trailing pulls their goalie and the other team scores again to win 3-1.
The game was a lot closer than the final score.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238137
07/12/04 08:40 AM
07/12/04 08:40 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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First Half Pitching & Offensive Stats (If anyone's interested....)
Last 3 Weeks Season Totals
W-L E.R.A. PTS W-L E.R.A PTS OFFENSE
PL(4846) 13-11 3.91 348 64-47 3.53 1711(2) 3135(1)
DB(4747) 13-10 3.57 357 66-43 3.54 1748(1) 2999(3)
JG(4591) 16- 8 3.83 374 61-49 3.85 1563(3) 3028(2)
FS(4141) 12-11 3.55 379 53-56 3.91 1429(4) 2712(6)
LD(4101) 12-12 4.44 260 51-56 4.40 1135(6) 2966(4)
SC(3983) 12- 9 3.57 284 52-49 4.06 1259(5) 2724(5)
MC(3251) 10-10 4.42 196 46-51 4.22 1087(7) 2170(7)
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238139
07/12/04 08:50 AM
07/12/04 08:50 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Oh, there's more coming... Review of first half predictions, second half predictions, some analysis on the first half.... Stay tuned. 
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238141
07/12/04 09:33 AM
07/12/04 09:33 AM
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,406
Big Daddy Don
Sugar Daddy
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Sugar Daddy
Underboss
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,406
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Originally posted by plawrence: This was like a football game that's tied 14-14 with a minute to, and one team scores to make it 21-14. The other teams gets the ball, and promptly throws an interception which is run back for a TD, and the final score is 28-14.
Or a baseball game ......
:o Stop with the humility, it does not become you. You kicked his a$$ just like you said you would in all those PMs to me. You said you would let him get close to enough to taste victory before you snatched it away from him. Of course DB does have the 'chicks' as his number 1 fans, guess he has 'groupies' :p so with that in mind, who really is the 'real' winner? As you were Peeps.
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238142
07/12/04 09:46 AM
07/12/04 09:46 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Three Questions Answered ( a la Bill James) How did PL beat DB?Three things happened. PL made his biggest strategy mistake of the season, taking the Mets PS against the Yankees in their doubleheader. The Mets got him a -21, and a +22 for the day. But DB made an even bigger mistake, missing the doubleheader all together. Instead he took the Reds PS, and got a -33 in pitching, and a -1 total for the day. Had DB caught the doubleheader (as did JG, FS, and LD, whose scores ranged from 100-116), he undoubtably would have scored around 100. That's PL's margin of victory right there. Then came the Baltimore-Tampa Bay doubleheader. DB wasted cap room on Melvin Mora who didn't play, while PL took Newhan, and used the money saved on Javy Lopez, while DB took Brook Fordyce. Newhan and Lopez scored 12 Mora and Fordyce got nothing. Still, going into Thursday DB led by 25 points. But DB's offense went stone cold the next three days, as he scored only 45 points offensively, while PL got scorching hot on offense. Led by Delucci's 19 on Thursday, he scored 118 on offense the next three days, to make Sunday anti-climactic. How did FS beat out Buffy for fourth place? Easy. On the morning of July 2, Buffy had a 56 point lead, and looked totally safe as FS missed the Milwaukee-Pittsburgh doubleheader. But the Buffster made her biggest strategy mistake of the season, taking the Milwaukee PS and getting a whopping -36. FS had only a +6 in pitching for the day, but that 42 point swing accounts for his entire margin of victory. Starting with that doubleheader, Buffy went 0-7 in pitching with a 7.74 E.R.A. and -43 points over the next five days, while FS, despite being mediocre (going 2-4 with a 3.63), still managed 77 points over the same five day span, accounting for a total swing of 120 points between the two. Is there such a thing as the "Buffy Pitching Curse"? No, not really. Except for her early season woes and the brutal five day streak cited above, LD actually did quite well in the pitching department. As a matter of fact, from May 31st through June 29th, a total of 30 days, her pitching line is a phenomonal 25-7, 3.08, 594 Pts. (19.8 PPD). That was the best stretch of that length that any of us had all season. Of course, on the other hand, if you subtract that stretch from her season total, it becomes quite ugly 26-49, 4.98, 541 Pts (7.2 PPD) 
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238143
07/12/04 09:55 AM
07/12/04 09:55 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
Don Sicilia
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
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10 Things I Think I Think (ala Peter King) 1 - Well, first and foremost, congrats to Plaw! Your picks were nothing short of masterful these last few days. No excuses from me... You just picked better. You've earned it! 2 - I told you in PM that the 2nd half is all that matters anyway, BDD? Shoot... I've been telling everyone that since the beginning! 3 - So BDD and Crabby, you playing the second half or what?? 4 - How was your vacation, your Royal Buffiness? 5 - I hope going unpredictable didn't jeopardize my chance at the "overall championship". 6 - Well, we all knew it was coming. Griffey to the DL. Now they got Berkman in the Homerun contest. 7 - Go National League! Having home-field advantage at Wrigley would be nice this year! 8 - Congrats again to Plaw! [NON-BASEBALL RELATED] 9 - Something happened this weekend - you know, one of those puts-life-in-perspective type things. A friend of a friend passed away this past weekend. She was a runner in college (can run the marathon in under 3 hours) and just finished taking her exams in medical school. She was down in Arizona with her post-college running team, and during a work-out, she was apparently dehydrated and passed out. She died soon after. She was only 25 years old. I gave her a ride from church just a month ago. Last year, it was the porch collapse. This year, it's this. Mind boggling. 10 - Sorry if I just depressed everyone. 
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238144
07/12/04 10:02 AM
07/12/04 10:02 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 14,900
Beth E
Crabby
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Crabby

Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 14,900
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So sorry to hear about your friend DB.  That is so tragic. It certainly does put life into perspective. See, Plaw. You can put your Paxil away. This fantasy sports stuff is nothing to get depressed about. I could write volumes on that subject. Again, DB, sorry for your loss.
How about a little less questions and a lot more shut the hell up - Brian Griffin
When there's a will...put me in it.
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238145
07/12/04 10:06 AM
07/12/04 10:06 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Thanks for the congrats DB, my Most Worthy Adversary.
Yeah, I picked well the last few days, but I had some good luck also.
And if you had caught that Yanks-Mets DH, I truly believe that you would have finished first.
I would have been the one forced into unpredictability, and then who knows?
Sorry to hear about your friend.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238148
07/12/04 10:15 AM
07/12/04 10:15 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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I really don't have that much to crow about. I keep looking back at the Yanks-Mets DH and figuring how lucky it was that you missed it.
That, plus your Melvin Mora pick, plus your offensive collapse Thursday thru Saturday, plus Delucci's 19 and Nomar's 15, plus that other doublehaeder you missed earlier in the season...
I just got lucky, that's all.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238150
07/12/04 10:23 AM
07/12/04 10:23 AM
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Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,722 New Mexico, USA
La Dolce Vita
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,722
New Mexico, USA
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Originally posted by plawrence: [b]How did FS beat out Buffy for fourth place?
Easy.
[/b] Yes, Easy. I unfortunately timed my vacation the last week of the half.  You can only do SO MUCH from far away looking ahead a whole week. DB: Had a great time thanks. White water rafting in Taos, hiked in the Grand Canyon, horseback riding at sunset in Sedona (which by the way - is one of the MOST beautiful places I have ever been - and I have been all over the world - in the Top 10 definitely)- I would be lying if I said my body wasn't a bit sore from all that today Sorry to hear about your friend. My best friend is a marathon runner and I worry about her all the time and I fear something like this will happen to her too. What to say at a time like this? Hang in there and consider yourself hugged. Am I playing the 2nd half? Dunno. I have some work issues. Oh wait. That sounds like someone else around here. :rolleyes: But I really do have some work issues. I got a promotion and a phat raise. . I am now management status. I need to set the example, ya know?
Ah, who knows. BTW- I came in 3rd in my other league so far. How 'bout you DB????
I have a tendency to wear my heart on my sleeve - I have a history of taking off my shirt.....
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238151
07/12/04 10:40 AM
07/12/04 10:40 AM
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,406
Big Daddy Don
Sugar Daddy
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Sugar Daddy
Underboss
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 1,406
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Originally posted by La Dolce Vita: Dunno. I have some work issues. Oh wait. That sounds like someone else around here. :rolleyes:
 Oh I know you ain't talkin trash 'bout me. If you must know my team without hardly playing still came in fourth - that is two ahead of you for those counting. :rolleyes: Maybe I should insert my team and take you down to 6th place, feeling fiesty after vacation I see. And one more 'outburst' like that and you'll find yourself off my Christmas Card list. And PL and DB you two wanna get a room? All this oh I got lucky, the score was much closer  - c'mon talk some smack. Tell him PL - at the end of the day, the young pup wannabe simply couldn't hang with the crusty ole veteran. Buffy - congrats on the promotion. DB - really sorry to hear about your friend.
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238153
07/12/04 10:53 AM
07/12/04 10:53 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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I'll never understand all this bullshit about "work issues".
What does it take? 15 minutes a day to pick a team? Wake up 15 minutes earlier or something.
Congrats on the promotion, Buff. But it just wouldn't be the same here without you.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238154
07/12/04 10:56 AM
07/12/04 10:56 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
Don Sicilia
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
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Originally posted by La Dolce Vita: Am I playing the 2nd half? Like that's even a question. :p Originally posted by La Dolce Vita: BTW- I came in 3rd in my other league so far. How 'bout you DB???? I haven't really paid much attention to my Yahoo Rotisserie League (which is a full-season league). I'm currently 11th out of 12th. How, you may ask? Injuries. Over the last few months, I've had at least 4 players on the DL each and everyday. Kind of makes it hard to field a winning team. Anyway, a lot of the players ahead of me have used up a lot of their game and inning allotments, so I'm primed for a comeback.
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238157
07/12/04 11:16 AM
07/12/04 11:16 AM
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Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,722 New Mexico, USA
La Dolce Vita
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 3,722
New Mexico, USA
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Originally posted by Big Daddy Don: If you must know my team without hardly playing still came in fourth - that is two ahead of you for those counting. Is this your imaginary team? You see, logically if we can't see your team, you can pretty much say whatever you want - How are we to believe you speak the truth? And why would we care? If you have time to play with your imaginary team, then seems you would have time to play for real. All Talk. No Action. No Fun.
I have a tendency to wear my heart on my sleeve - I have a history of taking off my shirt.....
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238158
07/12/04 01:11 PM
07/12/04 01:11 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335 New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
OP
The Don
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OP
The Don

Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by plawrence: [b]Is there such a thing as the "Buffy Pitching Curse"?
No, not really. [/b] No, no, no.... it's only a CURSE when there's a VICTIM! How many times has someone (besides you :rolleyes: ) been cursed by sharing a PS pick w/ Buffy? That's the real question. 
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey!  lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238159
07/12/04 01:37 PM
07/12/04 01:37 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058 The Slippery Slope
plawrence
RIP StatMan
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RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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I guess you have a point there, but you'd also have to figure out when the curse didn'tapply.
( a la Bill James) I checked the last eight weeks for days when Buffy and I shared a staff.
It happened a total of 15 times (including one doubleheader) during the eight weeks. My pitching stats for those 15 games:
7-8, 3.42, 235 Pts (16.8 PPD). Except for the W-L, that's about my season average)
Then I figured, since you're the one doing all the crying about this mythical curese, I'd check your stats, too.
On days when you and Buffy shared a staff, you were (13 days, 3 doubleheaders):
10-6, 3.71, 260 Pts (20.0 PPD). You did welll in two out of the three doubleheaders, and beat your seasonal averages by quite a bit.
What curse?
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238160
07/12/04 02:09 PM
07/12/04 02:09 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335 New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
OP
The Don
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OP
The Don

Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Sharing a staff w/ Buffy? Don't wanna touch that one! It's more than just numbers, Plaw. I can't explain it, but it's not just I who feels the wrath of The Curse! 
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey!  lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Baseball Challenge 2004
#238163
07/12/04 04:16 PM
07/12/04 04:16 PM
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 12,543 Gateshead, UK
Capo de La Cosa Nostra
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Joined: Nov 2002
Posts: 12,543
Gateshead, UK
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Wow, congratulations, Plaw!  I don't know the ins and outs (or anything else, for that matter), but I follwed the thread all this past week. Well done to the master strategist. :p Mick
...dot com bold typeface rhetoric. You go clickety click and get your head split. 'The hell you look like on a message board Discussing whether or not the Brother is hardcore?
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