Wow, this thread came alive when I was gone.

Are you people talking knocked OFF or knocked UP?


I am a happy guy for another night! The White Sox held up and my offense did something tonight. No rainout for me either....someone pass the TUMS to PEE will you. See this game can be fun at times

By the way Monday still sucks!

By the way I have forwarded this thread to the FBI with all the talk on knocking people off and buying and selling points.

Tuesday (Official)

Wow, people must really be upset. There are no middle of the night posts.
Hey, I see that SC is still alive and up early.

Yeah....had a night off last night....hadda take a pee break (and fight off the urge to post some stats).

OMG - I've been "plawed".

I was gonna send DB a PM with this question, but I figured rather than do that, I'd just bore everyone here instead

DB: In Partagas' thread about the liklihood of 300 game winners in the future, five pitchers are cited (Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Sabathia, and Garcia) as being off to a good start.

I wrote that if there's a group of five, each with a 10% chance, then there is a 50% chance that one of them will do it.

But I know that's incorrect, because if there are ten pitchers with a 10% chance, the chances are certainly not 100%.

I remember a similar question coming up once before, but I don't remember what we decided. Help me out here...

I'm thinking 20% myself.

Is that just a hunch? There's a formula for figuring this question out. Experts in probabilty usually express the question like this:

There's a barrel with ten different balls in it, each of a different color. What is the probability of picking out the red ball if you pick five different times.

The probability of picking the red ball all five times is 1/10 times five, or one out of 100,000.

But I'm not sure what the probability is of picking it once out of five times.

I think the easiest way to go about this is to figure out what the probability is of none of them making it... Since these are independent events, this scenario is much like flipping coins. For example, let's have two coins and study the probability that at least one of the coins turns up heads. There are four scenarios in this case:

TT
TH
HT
HH

It is easy to see that the probability of at least one of the coins turning up heads is 3/4. Conversely, if you figure out that the probability of both coins turning out tails is 1/4, you just need to subtract that probability from 1.

Now turning to your example, the probability of none of the pitchers getting to 300 wins is 59,049/100,000 or approximately 59% (9/10 to the 5th power).

This means that there is approximately a 41% chance that at least one of the five will win 300 games.

Yeah....had a night off last night....hadda take a pee break (and fight off the urge to post some stats).

OMG - I've been "plawed". [/b][/quote]

That is saying that the event will take place.

I thought and seem to remember that each turn is indendpent of all others.

There is nothing keeping that coin from coming up heads 5 or even 10 times in a row right? As each turn is a separate event.
Then again you are talking probability of an event taken place at all then adding five players to the mix.

To much for a guy like me.

Believe me now? There is NO Buffy Pitching Curse.

Also thanks to DB, I missed leading the week in total points by ONE POINT!!!! Arghh!

Sounds right, DB.....My instincts tell me that 41% sounds like the right number.

But I'd feel better if instead of backing into the answer, we were fronting in.

To meander a bit, I know that as long as their is the possibility of two outcomes, the probability is never 100%. Even if there were 100 pitchers on the list, each with 299 wins and a 99% chance of winning only one more game, the probability is still not 100% that one of them will make it (Damn fockin' close, though).

So if there are five guys, each with a 10% chance, there can't be a 50% that one of them will make it, because that would mean that if there were ten guys on the list, the probability would be 100%

Your logic makes perfect sense, but still....

Looks more like a "Buffy Offensive Curse" now. That is you, next to last in offense, (and only ten points from the offensive basement) isn't it?

I don't want any hitters that you pick...

I had a slow first week. My second week was obviously better. It will all pan out.

Yes, but have you seen any cream rising to the top yet?

Anyway you can get to the answer I always say...

Well, the definite way of fronting in is to add up each and every probability of the 119 combinations that has at least one of the pitchers getting to 300 wins... The probability of all of them making it is (1/10)^5, the probability of Zito making it is (1/10)x(9/10)^4 and the probability of Zito and Mulder making it... and so on and so forth and you add up all those probabilities and you'll get 41%.

I just figured my way is easier.

Buffy, imagine if we were one player (Douche Buffy ), we would rule the universe!

Yes, but have you seen any cream rising to the top yet? [/b][/quote]I've risen pretty damn close to the top I would say....(within 22 points)but I KNOW you weren't talkin' about me since I never talk of cream rising to the top.

btw - now would be as good as time to tell you that Lawton is NOT in the starting lineup. So sorry.

And you (and others) lucked out with Martinez. Everyone should know that Lee favors Laker as his catcher 50% of the time. Hey, it was that proverbial coin toss - in your favor. :p

Wow. I CAN imagine! :p

Would please stop giving out this kind of inside information?

I knew that. But I figured with a lefty pitching for Tornonto, and Cleveland being so loaded from the left side, that Martinez would DH today.

Inside information?

Ok, I hear you. But do you think that AFTER the games these people will know whether one of their players played or not? :rolleyes: It is never an exact science to figure out when ANY player of ANY position is playing but there are ways to figure it out.

But since you said "please"... :rolleyes: :p

And it is "Toronto"...not "Tornonto" - although that may have been someone's name in Dancing With Wolves

Wow. I CAN imagine! :p [/b][/quote]You have to kind and wonder what You/It would look like I hope I can sleep tonight after think about this.

Yes, I figured that that was one of my mistakes for the day. I think Bethie has Ortiz at 6.9 mil. and he will not play also. I was going to take the Indians, but after what hey did to me last week I went with Boston.

DB - is he calling one or both of us ugly??

FS - I hear ya. I LABORED between Lee and Wakefield for a long while yesterday. I knew Lee was slumpling but he usually puts up good numbers. Wakefield - well, it is personal - everytime I pick him, he screws me. :rolleyes:

I'm thinking now I made the wrong choice. :rolleyes: Time will tell.....fat lady whoever she is ain't singing yet (but she's warming up!).

Would please stop giving out this kind of inside information?

I knew that. But I figured with a lefty pitching for Tornonto, and Cleveland being so loaded from the left side, that Martinez would DH today. [/b][/quote]Sure there goes some more of Pee's hair. Stop giving out trade secrets or they will make you empty out your desk and escort you to the outer door. (PM me before the deadline next time- )

Of course we all knew this anyway
Why is it just luck if we do something right.
Last time we took Javey during the DH and he went 0-8 now that sucked just as bad.

No one gives me this kind of inside information. Come one, someone help a girl on the bottom out.

*** BE NICE DON"T SAY ANYTHING ******
*** BE NICE DON"T SAY ANYTHING ***
*** BE NICE DON"T SAY ANYTHING ***

No one gives me this kind of inside information. Come one, someone help a girl on the bottom out. [/b][/quote]*** BE NICE DON"T SAY ANYTHING ***
*** BE NICE DON"T SAY ANYTHING ***
ah shit....

Bottom Top, hell Bethie, it is all good to me. Take you pick, this young body likes it all

I think it is time that we all stay out of that thread about condoms. Things are going down hill fast here. Well, I guess it is Monday.
Pee even made a spelling mistake.

Buffy, its gonna be a loooong day. Did you see what the Cleveland PS has done so far?