Is that just a hunch? There's a formula for figuring this question out. Experts in probabilty usually express the question like this:

There's a barrel with ten different balls in it, each of a different color. What is the probability of picking out the red ball if you pick five different times.

The probability of picking the red ball all five times is 1/10 times five, or one out of 100,000.

But I'm not sure what the probability is of picking it once out of five times.