Well, yeah....

I thought i was "set" too, with Santana, Willis, harden, Haren, Westbrook, and Blanton.

And everyone got at least 5-6 decent starters; after all, 30 ML teams, a total of 60 #1 and #2 SPs, we only drafted 54 in our 9 team league.

I dunno exactly what I'm saying here when I say that SP proved to be more important than we thought.

Maybe that it just seems to be having a bigger impact on the game than we thought it would?

I just think that some of the guys we assumed would be very good, stink.

You guys w/ your trade requests -- three of them! after what I said yesterday...

And, Douche and I get over 100 pts and no standings? :p

I will trade Tejada and/or Dunn and possibly others for top flight starting pitching.

Only TOP guys, though, please.

You snooze. You lose.

I lost nothing by snoozin' -- nor do I support the Smoltz (172 pts) for Francisco Rodríguez (85 pts) trade. :p

I wanted to cancel that offer I made to you 14 hours ago, but I couldn't get near a computer.

And the Smoltz trade wasn't my idea. It was an offer I couldn't refuse. ...It is apples and oranges comparing SP and RP scores though.

TRADE ANNOUNCEMENT

JL trades F Rodriguez

to TM for

John Smoltz

I'll put this one through on Wednesday, so the players will be available to their new teams for Thursday.

I agree with JL 100% (for a change) about comparing their point totals, BTW.

I've said this any number of times before, but I'll say it again:

The only way to examine whether or not you think a trade will be good for you or not is to compare what your team looks like "before and after".

In other words - and I'm just making up numbers here; I'm not attemting to evaluate this trade - if Smoltz averages 10.0 FPPG and has 16 starts left, and JL uses Smoltz to replace a guy who has 16 starts left and only averages 7.0 FPPG, he can expect to gain 48 points.

With the season half gone, if he expects Rodriguez to score 50 points the rset of the way, and he has to replace him with a guy who hw figures will score only 30, he can expect to lose 20 points on that end of the transaction.

So his net gain for the whole trade is +28 points.

Of course these are estimates and judgements that you have to make, but that's what trading is all about. If it were an exact science and the future performance of the players was predictable with certainty, it would be a different story.

That's why I thought the Carpenter for A Rod trade was good one for JL.

I thought he would gain far more points by using Carpenter to replace whoever he replaced than he would lose by replacing A Rod with Blalock.

And I thought that JG would lose more points by replacing Carpenter with whoever he did than he would gain by replacing A Rod with Blalock.

wow I didn't expect such an instant outcome on this. I don't think this trade should be considered official until all my business are solved. JG can pull the trigger now.

PL Trade Offer - No ANALysis needed. Please, you're not getting Zambrano AND Schmidt for Capuano and Patterson - even w/ Uggla and Tejada (two infielders?). You already have Johan and Halladay, with Cap and Haren - and you want to deplete my SP? :p

While that's valid, what *I* have to worry about is JL's total points earnings... and this move makes him stronger. And being in 5th, trying to catch up to these two, I'd think you'd worry about that as well... :p

TM Trade Offer - I guess technically one could say the same thing about giving up RP Nathan for 1B/3B/RF Tracy - however, look who I have already at 1B and 3B. Doesn't anyone have a halfway decent CF? Besides, you're apparently getting an RP deal from JL already.

P.S. Yes, regardless of the LeBron fiasco, I've always been leary about making trades. Especially right now: "If it ain't broke..." So obviously I am going to be selective and look for someone *I* need... CF anyone?

P.P.S. It used to be nice to be able to see how we've each been doing as far as offense, SP and RP stats... :p

You want Andruw Jones?

And what's wrong with my proposal?

You're getting two good SPs to replace the ones you're giving up, and upgrading at two offensive positions with Uggla and Tejada.

What difference does it make that they're both infieldrs?

You want Andruw Jones? I'll send you an offer.

I sent you an offer.

Or make me a counter offer.

If you absolutely don't want to trade Schmidt, tell me and I'll stop trying to get him, but everyone has a price. or should, anyway.

I don't know what to make of your rejection of every one of my proposala and your failure to make a counter offer

There isn't anyone on my team who isn't available for the right price, and that's the way it should be for every player on every team in fantasy games and in real life.

Also, your PM box is full.

I'd be getting 1 good SP to replace my 2 best, and sure Tejada would be nice, but I didn't neet/want Uggla. As I said, I need most of my help at OF. It's more work to make the proposal than to review one, and I've been really busy lately.

Jones... pitiful hitting lately, but very tempting. Even tho he's a career .248 hitter in July (his worst month) and Schmidt is a career 23-10, 3.59 in August (4-0, 3.13 last year). Let me think a little on that - I have a ton of work to do this afternoon.

Thanks. I noticed most of them were from you pleading for Schmidt.

It's great to do research and look at statistics, but you look at some weird stuff....His career average in July?

Do you think he knows what month it is? That he goes into a slump just because it's July?

What could it be about July that causes him to slump?

There are certain things to look at - "splits" - that I consider legit.

Artificial turf vs. natural grass fields, certain parks, certain pitchers, day games vs. nite games, etc.

But to say that you don't want a guy because he doesn't hit as well in July as in other months is silly.

That's like saying you're not gonna take a guy in the salary cap game on a Tuesday because he doesn't hit well on Tuesdays.

If you tell me that you looked at all of the parks he has to play in during the month, and he does poorly in most of them, I'd agree.

If you tell me he does poorly against the pitchers he figures to be facing in July comapred to other pitchers, fine.

But to say that "he doesn't hit well in July" and have no other reason why other than the fact the the next four weeks or so are spelled J-U-L-Y makes no sense.

Same thing with Schmidt.

His record in a particular month is strictly a function of where he has to pitch, who he has to pitch against, and his health.

What month of the year it is has absolutely nothing to do with anything.

If you want to argue that maybe in April a player isn't fully settled in his "groove" yet, and by September he might be a little worn out - which would hold true for any player - I might agree with you, but other than that I don't think that a player's past performance in a particular month has anything to do with anything other than the factors I cited.

Then why do they bother keeping such stats? Maybe the heat gets to a pitcher, so he doesn't do as well in July or August as some others who may happen to do better in the heat. If some guy has (theoretically) a career avg ERA of, say, 3.30 in May, 3.50 in June, 4.40 in July, 5.20 in August, 3.80 in September -- wouldn't you think maybe there'd be a reason for it?

It's the same thing as performance before the All-Star Break, and performance afterwards. Some players are better in the first half than the second half, in general, over the course of their careers, than others who might be the opposite way. If you don't find such breakdowns (splits) helpful, then that's your problem. :p

I didn't say that's the ONLY thing I go by - but it is important, whether you think so or not...

Look at me, giving fantasy advice to the person way down in 5th Place... ahh, I guess he'd be the one to need it. :p

I'm gonna make this offer right here in the boards because that way I have to check only one site when I come back looking for an answer - JG's mailbox is full and I have lots of study to do and I get a little crazy with 25 Firefox windows with the Yahoo site and my email and salary cap and on and on...

I don't wanna hide anything anyway and I already have a trade pending with JL and I don't know if I can still use Smoltz. I belive I can.

well, here it goes: there is your CF JG! if you have a bit of an interest make me a counter offer. is not that hard!

Trade Proposal

TM

Figgins

=

JG

Nathan

The problem with Figgins is, he isn't really any better than what I already have. His value is in his SB's, but those points just make up for his weak bat.

We have a long way to go, so when I get some significant free time, I'll go thru everyone's rosters and see what I could use and make some offers.

I guess it's only natural that everyone wants to pick apart the 1st & 2nd Place teams. :p

yeah I suspect PL is playing hard to get waiting for someone to come begging for him to post the scores.

I suppose you could come up with revamped standings including comments, uh, plaw? 'cause I'm considering running for comissioner when your time expires...

PS: I knew you wouldn't care about Figgins, JG. what about Figgins=Shields???

Not for nothing, TM - but you or anyone else for that matter can do the standings, too. :p I've just been way too busy lately (I used to do it every day in the past)...

TTYTT, I'm not sure why they keep monthly stats.

Probably because there are people that still think they're important.

Bill James, whose work I strongly recommend, and who is a serious debunker of "conventional" baseball wisdom, once did a study that ran something like this:

He established certain criteria for what constiuted a "hot streak" and what constituted a "cold streak" for a player.

He then examined hundreds of such streaks over the course of maybe 10 or 20 years, and established that during the period a player was on either streak, he was no more or less likely to do better or worse in his next game or series of games than if he wasn't on such a streak.

As far as a player's performance from year to year during the various months of a season go, I still say that for the most part it's a function of where he plays and who he plays against rather than the month itself.

Not to mention the fact that you are way over-rating the importance of a twenty point difference in batting average.

Figuring in the basis of, say, 120 ABs per month, the difference between a .250 batting average and a .270 batting average is slightly more than two hits for the entire month, or one every 15 games or so.

Also, in comparing Jones July batting average to the other months, you failed to look at extra base hits and slugging percentage.

In fact, despite a lower batting average, Jones may have very well done better in July than he's done in other months.

Finally, I'm not sure where you got your figures from.

I looked at ESPN, and according to them - and their stats only go back to 2002, so the first five full years of Jones career aren't even included - Jones is 99-380 in the month of July, a .261 batting average.

(Is there another site that goes further back with the splits than 2002? You don't have to tell me which site it is, just if there is one or not)

Since Jones' lifetime average is only .272, that translates to about 4 fewer hits over the course of the 380 at bats, or about one hit every 20-22 games or so.

To me, that makes comparing his July batting average to the other months almost totally insignificant and meaningless.

You wanna talk about the heat in July or whatever, maybe it plays a small part in the equation, but I doubt if it means very much.

Even if you want to say that part of his .272 lifetime average is because of his .261 average in July, if we subtract his July numbers from his total it wouldn't raise his lifetime average more than another 2-3 points anyway.

Now, moving on.....

If you want to talk about our relative abilities or past performances in fantasy baseball, be my guest. :p

I'll let history speak for itself.

As far as the games go, it was you who said that the Yahoo game was all a matter of "luck and crafty finagling" or something, and that the Salary Cap Game was the real test of skill.

Um, who's doing better in that game between the two of us? :p

I will say this about the Yahoo game, though, and I probably shouldn't:

If you want to delude yourself into thinking that you are ahead of me in that game, feel free.

But the only reason that your point total is higher than mine is because you've used significantly more of your offensive games than I have, and significantly more of your pitching starts.

As the season progresses and I catch up, your lead against me will shrink, and according to my projections I will pass you.

And one of the reasons, BTW, that I've been neglecting posting the standings is because they're a constant reminder to everyone about where the strengths and weaknesses of their teams lie, and they're too suggestive in telling people what they have to do to improve.

If you want me to post the relatively meaningless raw Yahoo point totals every day so we have a permanent record of how the season progressed, I'd be happy to.

Well, that's pretty obvious -- but what's that have to do with PER MONTH or 1st or 2nd HALF stats?

You said it: YOU still say... What's your guru say? :p

I used theoretical numbers, but in my real argument I thought I was talking about ERA, not BA... I would think that pitchers are obviously more suseptible to weather than batters...

You're right, I think I did. I failed to see how many HRs or XBHs he had while batting .231 rather than .284... My bad.

It's a site called "Yahoo.com" -- where we play the game.

It's a site called "Yahoo.com" -- where we play the game. They go back to the mid/late 80s. I figured you'd've know that...

As I said, it's just a trend. And while trend may usually mean more to pitchers, why the hell not batters as well? If year after year after year after year a batter does poorly in July, then hey, MAYBE I just may take a crazy guess and say he might not do as well next July as he did in June. What is so crazy about that??

Isn't that called "crafty finagling"? :p "If we do this" to the numbers... "If we do that" to the numbers... WTF? THE NUMBERS ARE THE NUMBERS. Take them or leave them. Apparently, of all people I'm shocked that you'd rather disregard the stats!!

I was actually just talking about the here and now. Me battling between 1st and 2nd, and you mired in 5th...

And you're right, I did say that! And I should point out, you said the OPPOSITE. And when I said that, I had a miserable team doing miserable things, and got f'd out of most of the players I wanted to draft and all that -- IT WAS THE BEGINNING OF THE SEASON when I said that. And of course it was tongue(on rye)-in-cheek! I actually enjoy the draft game more than the salary cap game -- not cuz I'm doing better in it, but cuz I like the fact that one 1 of us can have any particular player at any one time.

But don't get me wrong - I like the other game, and THEORETICALLY it should be a matter of skill because anyone can pick "the perfect" daily lineup. None of us do, but hey. And as much as I think I know the game, it only proves to be -- for the most part -- a matter of luck anyway. Granted, skill increases your luck somewhat... but still. (And at the same time, you can say the same thing about the draft game -- your SP gets 40 pts and it's "skill" but he gets -20 and it's "bad luck"... NO... it's just BASEBALL!)

What's that line from Goodfellas? "Fuck you, pay me!" I think you can just show me... and I know how you plan on doing it, if I'm following accurately -- buy building an All-Star pitching staff at the expense of your offense. If you think that will win it, then good luck. Balance, my friend!

Well, you use that fancy math, now don't you?

FINALLY! And is that true in the other game, too??

Well, let's see (Hope you read all of this, because it took me a helluva long time to write it)....

It's an indicator that what happened in the past in many cases is not a reliable indicator of what will happen in the future.

If a player has done well the past week, that doesn't mean he'll do well the following weeek.

If a player did poorly the past few Julys, that doesn't mean he'll do poorly the next few.

Andruw Jones' July batting average is a perfect example.

Since 2002 his July batting average is .261

Since 1997, it's .248

That indicates - and I'm just estimating here, but I can't be too far off - that from 1997-2001 his July batting averge was around .235

So the July batting averages at the beginning of his career had no predictive value with respect to his July batting averages for the past 5 years.

I don't recall his ever addressing the question of monthly batting averages.

But based on his other work, I'd guess that he agrees with me.

I might agree with that, about pitchers.

But you suggested to me that the difference in Andruw Jones July batting average was a reason why the trade didn't look so good.

I was merely pointing out how insignificant a 10 or 15 or 20 point difference in a batting average over a month's time is.

Where did the .284 and the .231 come from?

I never really noticed.

Considering that parks change, players reach their peaks and start to fade, personnel from other teams change, the pitchers a guy faces every year reach their peaks and start to fade, etc., I don't consider stats regarding a player's performance to be worth very much at all when they are more than a few years old.

Of you look at just about any player's stats (there will, of course, be exceptions), you will find that in the categories which I think do have predictive value - such as home run frequency, batting average, E.R.A., strikeout frequency, just to name a few - what a player has done the past few years is a much better basis for predicting what he will do in the immediate future.

What Andruw Jones did in the early part of his career isn't worth very much in predicting what he will do this year.


Well, if you want to believe that I guess i can't convince you otherwise, but I think that I've shown, at least in the case of Andruw Jones, that there really isn't any trend with respect to his July batting averages.

The first part of his career he hit about .235 in July.

The last few years he's hit .261 in July.

His lifetime BA is .272.

I don't really see any trend there.

I think you missed my point there, because what I'm saying bolsters your argument, since it increases the difference in his July batting average and his lifetime average.

What I'm saying is his lifetime average is .272, but part of that .272 is because he's only hit .261 in July the past few years.

So if you subtract his "poor" July performance from his totals, his lifetime batting average would be higher than .272, thus increasing the difference between his performance in July and his performance in the other months.

Which supports your argument that he doesn't do as well in July.

Where's the "crafty finagling" there?

As far as "disregarding the stats" goes.....

I'm only disregarding those which I don't believe have any importance.

While I'll grant you that a hitter's performance in a given month may be influenced to a small extent by the weather, it's not enough, IMO, to matter.

If you told me that you always took Andruw Jones in the Salary Cap Game on Tuesday, because his lifetime Tuesday batting average was .325, I'd say that it was a pure fluke, and that there was maybe a 10% chance (DB knows how to figure this stuff out, I don't, so maybe he'll jump in) that a guy with a lifetime batting average of .272 could hit .325 on a given day of the week - while certainly unlikely, well within the bounds of reasonable possibility.

Still hung up on those raw point totals from Yahoo, huh?

Well, as I indicated before if you fail to realize that our respective positions in the standings are greatly influenced by the number of offensive ganes and pitching starts we've used, I guess I can't convince you otherwise.

But lemme take one more shot here:

Going into yesterday, you've used 725 offensive games, and I've used 718.

Will you give me my average - 3.46 FPP - for those "seven games in hand" I have to equal your total?

If you will, that's another 24 points for me.

And, going into yesterday, you've used 103 pitching starts, and I've used 86.

The current FPPG average of my 5 starters is 13.4 FPPG.

Will you give me 13.4 PPG for the 17 "starts in hand" that I have to equal your total?

If so, that's another 228 points for me.

That makes our totals 3954 for you, and 3827 for me.

Hardly a commanding lead (and I’m not gonna do the projections for everyone else, which would show that you are not in first or second place).

But let’s look at it another way:

The raw total score going into yesterday was 3954 to 3599.

But……

I have 76 pitching starts left. At 13.4 FPPG, that gives me another 1018 points.

You have 59 starts left. At your average for your top 5 starters (12.7), that gives you another 749 points.

I have 740 offensive games left. At 3.46 FPPG, that gives me another 2560 points.

You have 733 offensive games left. At your average (3.25), that gives you another 2382 points.

Put those numbers together, and you’re at 7085, and I’m at 7177.

Now, relief pitching:

The season has 183 days.

Going into Sunday, you had 466 RP Points in 91 days, or 5.1 per day.

I had 327 RP Points, or 3.6 per day.

With 82 says to go, you project to another 469 RP Points, while I project to another 331.

Add those numbers to our total, and we’re left with

JG 7554
PL 7508

Now I know that I'm not in first place based on projections.

But it looks pretty damn close between you and I.

Close enough so that I wouldn’t say that you’re in first place while I’m “mired” in 5th.....

As I say, you wanna ignore the stats and just go by the raw totals, be my guest. Maybe it’ll give you a false sense of security.

Finally, let me just say this about all of that:

A lot can happen in the next three months….injuries, trades, hot or cold second halves, surprise players, etc.

But…..all things being equal, it’s very close among the top 5 here, and although I have my own idea about who I think will win, I also think that the game will be ultimately decided by one of those factors that prevent "all things being equal."



Now your giving lessons?.....LOL


What’s “fancy” about the math? I think the basis for my projections is completely sound.

If you want to show me where my reasoning is faulty, feel free.

Altho I do stand corrected…..

My projections do not show me passing you, although they did the last time I checked..

But it’s certainly close enough so that if you think that you have a 400 point lead on me – or any kind of significant lead for that matter – then I don’t know what to tell you.

Well, I have been neglecting my duties.

Truth is that for the last 7-8 weeks I’ve been doing some small scale real betting.

I was doing so poorly in both the fantasy games that I started to bet on the opposite of what some of my fantasy picks were.

I’ve been doing quite well, too, AAMOF – I’ve increased my starting bankroll by about 80%.

But even tho I’ve been betting small amounts, I’ve been devoting the same amount of research time to the picks I’ve been making in addition to the ones that are opposite my fantasy picks as I would if I were betting hundreds of dollars per game, so I’ve been neglecting my other responsibilities.

(Note: Excuse any typos -- I didn't really proof this)

Belated Happy 4th of July to all of you too! :p

Every word!

I could either spend an hour retorting, or, can just put it in simple terms you'll understand: Wanna go double-or-nothing on that $25 I owe you that I beat you (at least) in this game?

BTW JG, Thanks for Posada.

Ooooh...a proposition.

That's what we gamblers - I'm a gambler - call a proposition.

Let's see....take the sure $25 that he owes me now or risk it in a game in which he already has a slight lead....Hmmmm

Don't have to think about that one too long.

I ACCEPT

It'll be worth $25 to be entertained by all the whining you'll do every time you have a bad day or someone gets injured or you have the wrong guy on the bench, or a dozen other things that you'll find to whine up a storm about. :p

Can you imagine how picky I'll be with trade requests NOW?? :p