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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270718
07/27/06 01:58 AM
07/27/06 01:58 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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I don't think many people will get 162 games from their catchers. In fact, I think next year we might want to consider having 2 catchers. But in any event, check your PMs. 
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey!  lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270719
07/27/06 02:09 AM
07/27/06 02:09 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Wednesday (official)
JG 4821 12 4833 -23 in pitching didn't help :(
JL 4791 40 4831 Almost regains top spot
DB 4598 50 4648 Verlander (28) & Berkman (14) help
TM 4582 64 4646 40 pts offense even w/o Dye (8)
PL 4354 60 4414 Two out of 3 SPs ain't bad (10.3 avg tho)
LZ 3959 45 4004 Doing okay for not playing :/
CC^ 3785 20 3805 Just a poor night
DA 3800 -20 3780 -36 in pitching didn't help either
DJ 3594 22 3616 38 pts on bench cuz not playing (wuss)
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270721
07/27/06 02:28 AM
07/27/06 02:28 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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StatTracker had a few changes since I posted that... ahh well, can't rely too much on it I suppose. 
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270723
07/27/06 05:20 AM
07/27/06 05:20 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by J Geoff:
I don't think many people will get 162 games from their catchers. In fact, I think next year we might want to consider having 2 catchers. If you have the right catchers, make sure their off-days are opposite each other for the most part, and are able to figure out how they get used (platooning, night games after day games, etc.), it's still difficult, but not that hard. Or, because catcher is such a weak offensive position, you can go without a back-up, sacrifice the 30 games or so, and hope that you gain mpre points by carrying another player a a different position. I don't expect to miss by much - 6 or 7 games maybe, at most - and I wouldn't go with two catchers next year. Using your catcher(s) is one of the games strategy elements, and removing it just dumbs things down. ...... I don't think many people will get 162 games from their catchers. That's all the more reason not to go with two catchers next year. Those managers who are able to strategize it correctly deserve the benefit of doing so.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270724
07/27/06 12:03 PM
07/27/06 12:03 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Good points, of course. It was just a thought.
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270725
07/27/06 02:31 PM
07/27/06 02:31 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Pending Trade
DB gets...
SP Zambrano
SP Penny
JG gets...
1B Howard
SP Beckett
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270726
07/27/06 04:59 PM
07/27/06 04:59 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
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The Slippery Slope
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Very interesting.....
Before I even analyze the numbers here - which I will do shortly, my initial inclination is that this trade will help DB more than it helps JG.
The reason is that DB got rid of essentially a dead player - someone who he does not have to replace, in Howard.
With Thome, Pujols, and Howard only eligible for either 1B or UTIL, unless he was used to fill in on an off-day or take advantage of a match-up, barring injury, DB theoretically could have gone the rest of the season, not used Howard at all, and not been hurt in the slightest.
So from DB's POV, this trade is Beckett for Zambrano and Penny.
There are two ways for DB to look at it - Either he traded Beckett for Zambrano, got a big edge on that, and got Penny for free, or
DB traded Beckett for Penny, which is roughly a standoff, and got Zambrano for free.
Of course, on the other hand.....
JG could argue that for him, Penny was essentially a dead player, because he doesn't really have to replace him.
He can easily make it through the rest of the season using Schmidt, Bedard, Santana, Lackey, and Beckett instead of Schmidt, Bedard, Santana, Lackey, Zambrano, and Penny.
So just as DB could make the argument that he either traded Beckett for Zambrano and got Penny for free, or he traded Beckett for Penny and got Zambrano for free, so JG could argue that he
Traded Zambrano for Beckett, which is a loser, but got Howard for free, or he traded Zambrano for Howard – that’s really the crux of this trade, and what has to be closely analyzed – and got Beckett for free.
Actually, I’m wondering if JG even needed to make the Penny for Beckett part of the deal.
Whose idea was that? If it was JG’s, I’m not sure he got the best of that part. We’ll see.
Actually, unless JG thinks he got the best of that part of the trade, then he was better off, I think, taking the deal which I offered him, which was Adam Dunn for Howard.
Unless JG just thinks that going forward Howard is gonna score a lot more points than Dunn, Dunn would have been a better fit for JG because he plays two positions, and JG needs help in leftfield also.
Not to mention that he wouldn’t have been helping someone who was closer to him in the standings than I am.
And that, I think, is an important consideration.
OK sports fans, I gotta run out for a little while.
When I get back, we’ll plug some numbers in with the names and get a better idea of who really did get the best of this one.
In any case, I'll put this trade through on Saturday, so you have these guys available to you for the games on Sunday.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270727
07/27/06 08:27 PM
07/27/06 08:27 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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The trade was initially much more complex, dealing with many more players. After a while, it just ended up being: Zambrano for Howard Penny for Beckett Penny was DB's idea, to me it's basically the same quality pitcher at this point, and didn't really matter to me. I went with Howard rather than Dunn because Dunn's AVG is shit, and Howard has the potential to hit almost as many dingers probably. My LF is "okay" - hopefully Holliday will pick it back up at Coors, and I still have (currently) hot hitters Reed Johnson & Juan Rivera. I got a 1B bat I needed for when super-hot Adrián González cools off or to fill my Util position w/ someone other than a Huff or Lugo. And DB got a quality pitcher he needs desperately if his young SPs faulter. I needed Zambrano less because I only have like 33 starts left for the season anyway. So, I see it beneficial to both of us. And hopefully not too beneficial for DB to pass me. :p Edit: All this as Dunn hits #31 - doh!
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270728
07/28/06 01:51 AM
07/28/06 01:51 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Thursday (official)
JL^ 4831 21 4852 He's Freelin' it
JG 4833 16 4849 On a Holliday
DB 4648 19 4667 Stinky Pujols
TM 4646 12 4658 Cain is not able
PL 4414 36 4450 He's not Dunn yet
LZ 4004 15 4019 Nothing to be Soriano about
CC 3805 34 3839 Not singing the Olsen prison blues
DA 3780 37 3817 He shall be Liván
DJ 3616 12 3628 Don't touch the Glaus
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270729
07/28/06 09:24 AM
07/28/06 09:24 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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I'm assuming that trading Dunn for Zambrano with me would have had the same net affect on your team as the deal with DB had, so the big thing here for you is this: Is DB (who is closer to you in the standings) gonna improve his team by more points than I (who is further behind you) would have improved mine? The guy who improves the least is, obviously, is the guy you should have traded with. Well, let's see..... What did DB gain?I figured he loses almost nothing by not having Howard. A few games to fill in for Thome or Pujols on their days off. Maybe the fill-in guys he has to use now are worth .75 FPPG or so less than Howard. I’ll be generous here, and say DB loses 10 points by not having Howard anymore. To figure his estimated gain, I like to take a look at what his Pitching Rotation figured to get him – based on average FPPG – before the trade, and then what his new rotation figures to get him. With 48 starts left, that looks like this: BEFORE
# Starts AVG FPPG Total
Liriano 11 17.9 197
Verlander 11 15.0 165
Contreras 11 11.4 125
Beckett 8 9.3 74
Sheets 7 10.0 70
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Total 48 631
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AFTER
# Starts AVG FPPG Total
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Liriano 11 17.9 197
Verlander 11 15.0 165
Zambrano 11 14.3 157
Contreras 11 11.4 125
Penny or Sheets 4 10.0 40
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Total 48 684So DB's "After" rotation gets him about 53 more points than his "Before". Minus the 10 points he loses with the loss of Howard, that's a net increase for DB of 43 points. What Did JG Gain? A little bit harder to figure, with only 33 starts left. But I did the same thing -- How would I play it if it were me? With 33 starts left, here's JG's "Before" and "After" BEFORE
# Starts AVG FPPG Total
Lackey 9 14.7 132
Zambrano 9 14.3 129
Schmidt 9 12.8 115
Bedard 2 10.0 20
Penny 2 10.0 20
Santana 2 9.6 19
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Total 33 435
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AFTER
# Starts AVG FPPG Total
Lackey 10 14.7 147
Schmidt 10 12.8 128
Beckett 9 9.3 84
Bedard 2 10.0 20
Santana 2 9.6 19
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Total 33 398So, JG loses about 37 points with his new and weakend pitching rotation. Now, we have to add in the projected increase in points for JF by having Howard. I'll be generous again. Let's say 60 games of Howard instead of 60 games of whoever. And let's say that Howard is worth one full FPPG more (which is really a lot) than the "whoever" he replaces. So that's a net increase to JG of 60 points. Subtract the 37 JG loses in pitching, and the trade is worth a net increase to JG of about 23 points. Versus the expected increase for DB of 43 points. It's close - it figures to be with almost 2/3 of the season gone - but DB gets the edge on this trade. One more thing to look at..... What Would PL Have Gained in Comparison? What can we predict would have happened if JG made the Dunn-Zambrano trade with me, instead of the one he did make with DB? I figure it like this: From JG's POV, he improves about the same - a loss in pitching (about the same since Beckett and Penny are fairly even) and a gain in offense (about the same, since Dunn and Howard are fairly even) BUT.... If he trades with me instead of DB, I do not improve my team as much as DB improved his. Here....let's look at my "Before" and "After" pitching, with 57 starts left: BEFORE
# Starts AVG FPPG Total
Santana 11 17.3 190
Halladay 11 15.4 170
Capuano 11 11.3 125
Haren 6 12.0 72
Someone from 18 10.0 180
the Junk Pile
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Total 57 737
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AFTER
# Starts AVG FPPG Total
Santana 11 17.3 190
Halladay 11 15.4 170
Zambrano 11 14.3 157
Capuano 11 11.3 125
Haren 6 12.0 72
Someone from 7 10.0 70
the Junk Pile
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Total 57 784So I gain 47 points in pitching. BUT..... I lose 60 games of Dunn. I'l be generous again, and say that I only lose .5 FPPG by replacing him (in reality, it's probably closer to that one full PPG than half a point), so that's a minus of 30 points, for a net gain of 17. Since JG gains 23, and I only gain about 17, JG probably has a very slight edge over me in a Dunn-Zambrano trade. But the main point is that JG traded with a guy who is closer to him in the standings - DB - and made a trade in which that guy improved his team more than JG did, when he could've traded with me, who is behind him even more in the standings and would've inproved less. I know I'm gonna hear about "fuzzy math" and "predictions" and "projections" being meaningless, but hey, you gotta go by something in making the comparison. Show me how you were better off making the trade that you did with DB than you would've been in making the trade with me. Not that I'm so upset that you didn't.....  As the figures show, you improve more than I do, so you would've gotten the better of that trade. I'm not even sure why I was willing to do it in the first place.  I played with the numbers before I proposed it to you, and it came out with a slight advantage for me, but I can't find the figures i came up with, and don't remember how i came up with them.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270730
07/28/06 09:21 PM
07/28/06 09:21 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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GIANTS SUCK!!!  This is BullSchmidt!! :rolleyes:
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270732
07/28/06 09:38 PM
07/28/06 09:38 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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It wasn't HIM so much -- it'd take 3 ER any night -- the Giants just suck, and apparently can't score for SHIT... against the Pirates no less! :rolleyes:
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270733
07/28/06 09:42 PM
07/28/06 09:42 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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...and here's Plaw with his Wang -- my old Wang! -- and a complete game 2-hit shutout. 
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270734
07/28/06 09:55 PM
07/28/06 09:55 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 14,900
Beth E
Crabby
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Crabby
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 14,900
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Originally posted by J Geoff:
...and here's Plaw with his Wang -- my old Wang! -- You let Plaw play with your Wang?
How about a little less questions and a lot more shut the hell up - Brian Griffin
When there's a will...put me in it.
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270736
07/29/06 02:10 AM
07/29/06 02:10 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Friday (official)
JG^ 4849 38 4887 Didn't play it right, but back in 1st
JL 4852 32 4884 Played it right, but... well, yeah
DB 4667 34 4701 Better not bench Howard the last day :P
TM 4658 21 4679 Benched -10 RPs luckily; did Wright (9)
PL 4450 80 4530 Everybody Wang (38) Chung to-night
LZ 4019 47 4066 You still here? :/
CC 3839 40 3879 Drew (10, benched) the short stick?
DA 3817 29 3846 Same ol'....
DJ 3628 -6 3622 Will not be "playing" in '07 :P
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270737
07/29/06 08:02 AM
07/29/06 08:02 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Not actually posted anywhere, but JG's "trash talk" at the top of his Yahoo Baseball Home Page
When does PL's catch-up begin? Talking about it for weeks and still 400 pts back. :p Actually, you're the one that keeps talking about it.  ( I HATE MYSELF FOR GETTING SUCKED INTO THIS SAME FRIGGIN' DUMB DISCUSSION YET AGAIN.
Calling Dr. Moe....Calling Dr. Larry....Calling Dr. Curley.....) The "catch-up" :rolleyes: will begin when I start to work off those 24 starts that I have "in hand" against you. In fact, I think it already has. (Let's see....24 starts = about 288 points at 12 FPPG. I'm averaging more than than. Still have an edge in offense, I think...bullpen is picking up.... How much am I behind in raw points again?) You know that, I know that, everyone knows that. After all your chit-chat about your 400 point lead, when this game is over if you wind up beating me by a very small margin or losing to me all together, you're gonna look a lot sillier than I will, since all I ever said (way back when) was that based on my projections it was very close between us, and I was possibly even in the lead (Which, at the halfway point, is no guarantee of winning anyway). You gotta win by a lot to prove your point that the projections are meaningless, and that ain't gonna happen. Even if I lose, as long as it's reasonably close - say 50 points or so - I will have proven my point. Anyway, keep the trash talking going. Then when the season is over I can make a "compilation post" quoting all your remarks. :p 
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270738
07/29/06 09:58 AM
07/29/06 09:58 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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I'm a little disappointed....  All that work analyzing the trade, and no comments from the traders. I didn't expect one from JG, of course, once he realized that not only did he get the worst of the deal that he did make, but that he traded with the wrong guy. And I figure DB has nothng to say, since he probably agrees with me. Never mind.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270740
07/29/06 01:26 PM
07/29/06 01:26 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,335
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by plawrence: I'm a little disappointed....
All that work analyzing the trade, and no comments from the traders.
I didn't expect one from JG, of course, once he realized that not only did he get the worst of the deal that he did make, but that he traded with the wrong guy.
And I figure DB has nothng to say, since he probably agrees with me.
Never mind. WTF are you talking about? What do you call the post I made before your "analysis"? I thoroughly analyzed it before I did it for 2 days -- why do I need to share it with you? If I thought I was getting a bad deal, then I wouldn't have done it. Talk about silly. :p
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270743
07/29/06 08:22 PM
07/29/06 08:22 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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What exactly abut my analyasis was wrong?
How is an offer of for Dunn for Zambrano worse than the deal JG actually made?
I think I showed pretty conclusively that you get the best of the deal, JL.
Sure I critique eveyone's moves. So what?
And what does that have to do with my position in the standings?
Are you're gonna be another one that doesn't believe in projections?
I guess we'll see who is in what position when it's all over.
Everyone wants to get the best of any deal they make - you had a few offers floating around out there that were a little ridiculous too, you know.
Hey, I can't help it if none of you guys thought of trying to get Capuano from DJ, or Halladay from DM....
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: Yahoo Fantasy Baseball (Draft Game)
#270745
07/29/06 09:26 PM
07/29/06 09:26 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Here's a quick and dirty projection - a lot quicker and dirtier than I like to get, because it's based on few probably somewhat faulty assumptions. To wit: 1) That everyone will make it to the maximum of 1458 offensive games (clearly that is not gonna happen, and in some cases may already be a impossibility based on the way some teams are presently constituted.) 2) That each offenive game is worth 3.5 points. 3) That everyone will make it to the maximum of 162 potching starts. 4) That each pitching start is worth 13.0 points. 5) Relief Pitching, the most inpredictable category by far, will be equal the rest of the way. Look over the chart, plug in your own numbers, figure RP any way you want to, share your conclusions or don't. But let someone try and tell me that it's not a lot closer than the raw points standings..... JG JL TM DB PL
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Raw Score 4887 4884 4679 4701 4530
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Off Games (557) (535) (602) (580) (561)
Remaining
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Add'l Projected 1950 1873 2100 2030 1964
Offensive Points
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Pitching Starts (31) (44) (41) (47) (55)
Remaining
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Add'l Projected 403 572 533 611 715
PS Points
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Total Projected 7240 7329 7312 7342 7209
Score
"Difficult....not impossible"
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