Originally posted by plawrence: Here's a quick and dirty projection - a lot quicker and dirtier than I like to get, because it's based on few probably somewhat faulty assumptions.
To wit:
1) That everyone will make it to the maximum of 1458 offensive games (clearly that is not gonna happen, and in some cases may already be a impossibility based on the way some teams are presently constituted.)
2) That each offenive game is worth 3.5 points.
3) That everyone will make it to the maximum of 162 potching starts.
4) That each pitching start is worth 13.0 points.
5) Relief Pitching, the most inpredictable category by far, will be equal the rest of the way.
Look over the chart, plug in your own numbers, figure RP any way you want to, share your conclusions or don't.
But let someone try and tell me that it's not a lot closer than the raw points standings.....
Add in another 30 points for Dye, and it shows you up about 150.
That ain't 400.
One or two good breaks for me coupled with one or two bad breaks for you, and I can easily make up 150 points in eight weeks.
And since I figure that in the "Breaks department" you're somewhat ahead of me in good breaks vs. bad, a couple in my favor will just even things out.
What I mean is, part of the reason you're "ahead" by so much now is the "breaks" so far and the things that happened which were totally or partially unpredictable.
Take Weaver as an example.
I give you credit for knowing about him and picking the guy up in the first place and holding onto him after the Angels dropped him, but honestly....hasn't he performed way beyond your expectations?
He must have about 170 points in his 8 starts.
Wouldn't you have been overjoyed with 150?
Could anyone reasonably have expected him to do so well?
So there's 20+ points right there.
I lose Harden for the season, when he's averaging better than 16 PPG.
Suppose I had 12 more starts with him this year instead of some of the guys I gave tryouts to?
I'm not looking to turn this into a whine, but I can't for the life of me figure out why you guys keep talking about that raw points lead as if it represented the real amount that you were ahead.
All I'm saying - which is what I've been saying - is that it's closer than it looks, and as far as the breaks go, I think I've had fewer good ones and more bad ones than you've had, and if the breaks even out I have a decent shot of catching you or making it real close.
