That's plain silly, and you know it.

Of course I like to have the better of the deal, don't you?

And anytime someone whose knowledge I respect offers me a trade, I look at it extra hard.

The big "Dealer" in this game has been JG, and he made two that were not to his benefit, IMO.

And why he took DB's deal instead of mine for Zambrano.....still can't figure that one out.

Psychological, I think.

What did you think about that, JL?

I'll be waiting patiently for your opinion on my just accepted trade with TM.

Trade Announcement

JL trades

Ramon Hernandez, C
Josh Johnson, SP
Mike Cuddyer, 1B & 3B

to TM for

Jermaine Dye, RF
Kenji Johjima, C

O'll put this thru on Tuesday, so you'll have the players on Wednesday.

I've reached the conclusion that you guys treat me like the Yankees.

Much tougher on trading with me, and expecting more in return.

I guess I should be flattered, but still.....

How else do you explain JL offering me Smoltz & Youklis for Dunn, and when I turn it down, doing this trade?

Johnson is having a better year than Smoltz, so he gave away more points-wise there, and Dunn is doing better than Dye, so he got fewer points back in return.

Plus, he traded catchers and gave away the better one.

Instead,he offered me Youklis, wjo was barely playing for him anyway, and would've replaced (maybe) Feliz on my team, which isn't much of a difference.

Anyway, as far as this trade goes, i know it helpd JL because he doesn't need so many starters, so the net loss for him in SP will be tiny, while he improves his offense tremendously.

Probably a lot more than TM improves his pitching at the expense of his offense.

That makes it a bad trade for TM, since he's trying to catch JL.

I'll take a more detailed look at the numbers tomrrow. We also have to factor in the gain for TM on the witching of catchers.

I don't think I could've given TM more for Dye than JL did, and I don't think I would've given him Dunn for Johnson.

I wanted Carpenter for Dunn, so JL traded away a pitcher who was less valaubale for a hitter who was less valuable.

But it's funny how he offered me the less valuable pitcher for the more valuable hitter.

Johnson is better than Smoltz? If you wanted Johnson, I would have gladly substitued him for Smoltz in my trade offers to you. No knock on Johnson. He's been very reliable for me, but Smoltz hasn't lost a game since TM traded him to me 6 weeks ago, and has a much better track record. If the Braves trade him. he'll be even more valuable.

Youkilis is about to be my starting 1B, and his numbers are better than Cuddyer and Helton. I'm about to give up on Helton. The only reason I offered him to you was for Dunn.

Johjima was a "throw in". TM was going to waive him, so he was included to be my back-up. This trade was strictly for Dye. Posada is now my starting catcher. He only has 12 less points than Hernandez.

I needed another in RF, and Dye's 381 points will fit very nicely.

As stated in my first reply, I do not consider Johnson and Cuddyer to be nearly as valuable as Smoltz and Youkilis. I would not have traded them for Dye. Hernandez was added luxury I did not need. Posada's points are almost identical.... I would have given you Johnson instead of Smoltz in a second, but all you kept asking for was Carpenter, so I gave up on Dunn.

Youk?? Sheesh, I dropped that POS to the pool for a reason. Posada, too.

It's nice to see people scrambling over my scraps! lol

At a quick glance, I think TM makes out on the deal, truthfully - but I didn't do a thorough ANALysis like Plaw and his fancy math will tomorrow...

Saturday (official)

It's funny how you quote this years stats when they back up your argument, but igonre them (Johnson vs Smoltz) when they don't.

if we're not gonna agree to the same standards for analyzing these trades, then it becomes purely subjective and a waste of time to do so.

BTW, JL, I would not have taken Johnson for Smoltz. I'm just saying Johnson has been better based on his stats.

I'll stick with my first inclination.

JL doesn't need Smoltz to make it to 162, so I think getting Dye for basically nothing is gonna be a big help to him.

First you complain about how much I gave up to get Dye, when you felt I offered less for Dunn. Now I got Dye for "basically nothing". :rolleyes:

Considering Youk has 356 points, and Posada has the 4th most points among catchers, can you please tell me your reasons??

FWIW, before last night's games, Smoltz has the 14th most points out of all the starting pitchers in the game. This is even after a bad start, where he was under .500 in the middle of June. Also, in the last month Smoltz is averaging over 20 points per start.

I already had/have the #1 catcher in points. :p

As for Youk, he's #15 this season in a position-heavy field (1B) -- and #26 for the Past Month. He wasn't helping me when I dumped him. He is doing a little better now, tho... prolly cuz I did dump him. But there are 25 better 1B's than him, so I couldn't bother.

Hmmm. I guess those are decent reasons, but I would have at least tried to trade them. They are much better than what's available in the waiver pool. I don't see 25 better than Youk though. I see around 10.

Edit: counting last night it looks like about 12 with more points.

..

Well, I said 25 meaning the past month... as I said, "what have you done for me lately" is the stat I consider most often - cuz by August, I don't care what someone did in April...

If that's the case, you should have traded A-Rod to me.

I'm just going by their average number of FPs per start.

Johnson's is higher.

But, as I said before....

If we don't have a common ground for deciding on what makes one player more valuable than another in this, then it's all subjective and this this whole exercise is pointless.

You try and prove to me that Smoltz is better, so you give me his total points.

Sure, but he's made a lot more starts.

The you give me his stats for the last month.

I try and prove that Johnson is better, so I give yoou his average per start for the whole year.

One thing that you two guys consistently ignore, though, is what I call "Replacement Value".

DB had the classic example this year with Ryan Howard.

I don't care how many points he had - he was basically usless to DB because there was nowhere for him to play.

So even if DB traded Howard and his 380 points for a guy who had only scored 300 points all season, but that guy was gonna replace someone else fr DB who scored even less, then it was a good deal for DB.

First you complain about how much I gave up to get Dye, when you felt I offered less for Dunn. Now I got Dye for "basically nothing". :rolleyes: [/b][/quote]Now you're just twisting my words and reading things into them that I never said.

I felt you offered less for Dunn because IMO Johnson is having a better season.

Like I said, that's just my opinion because we don't have a common ground for evaluating players.

But where did I "complain about how muuch you gave up to get Dye"?

You got Dye for basically nothing (to you) and you would've gotten Dunn for basically nothing.

I think I made the reason pretty clear there:

Before the trade you had 6 solid starters: Carpenter, Weaver, Zito, Smoltz, Oswalt, and Johnson.

We don’t even need Hhernandez.

With 41 starts left, and each SP with about 10-11 starts left this season, the 6 of them were more than enough to start those 41 games and still give you plenty of room to maneuver for favorable match-ups, home games, etc.

Now, without Johnson (or without Smoltz, as the case may have been), you still have 5 solid starters.

That’s still enough to make those 41 starts and give you plenty of room to maneuver for favorable match-ups, home games, etc.

So removing either pitcher from your mix figured to cost you nothing in points.

Depending on what you think having Dunn or Dye to replace whoever is worth - .50 PPG, .75 PPG, 1.0 PPG – times the 60 or so games left is what you gain on this trade.

And from TM’s POV it’s a lousy trade for him because the points you gain cannot – I don’t think – be offset by the points he will gain by adding Johnson to his rotation.

And that assumes that on net TM will even gain points on the deal.

What he loses by losing Dye may not even be offset by his gain from adding Smoltz.

So the only thing we can state here pretty much with certainty is that this trade will help JL.

So anyway, I'm not gonna bother doing a complicated anaysis of a trade based on the player's stats, since we cannot seem to decide on which stats to compare.

There are ways that I use to evaluate players, and JL or JG may have different ways of doing it, which can lead to different results, and who's to say who's method is better?

You can make a "correct" evaluation, and a hitter can hit a cold or hot straek that knocks the whole thing out of balance.

Smoltz vs. Johnson is a good example:

Who is better?

If you look at total points, it's Smoltz, but if you look at average FPs per start for the season, it's Johnson, but if you look at the last month or 6 weeks it's Smoltz.....

Absolutley not, BTW, looking to turn this into a discussion about who's methods are , in fact, better...

First of all, saying that I "have nobody close to Youklis on (my) roster to play 3B with nearly as many points" is just plain wrong.

If I put Feliz and his 322 points at 3B, the difference is less than half a point a game.

With 60 games left, that 30 point difference isn’t much.

Second of all, by taking him off your roster I don’t see how I weaken you at that position.

The guy has 5 at bats for you the whole season, so you can just replace him with another guy you’re not gonna use.

As far as pitching goes, here’s where we run into the problem of “Method of Evaluation”

If we do it the way you did it and have Smoltz rate higher, or my way and have him rank lower, the fact is that by removing him from your rotation and dividing his starts up among those who remain does not figure to cost you many, if any, points.

As far as “rather having Wang and Maine instead of Smotlz’, you kinda took things out of context there.

It sounds like I’d just rather have Maine and Wang instead of Smoltz.

How about “ I’d rather have Wang and Maine and Dunn and Feliz instead of Smotlz and Youkliss”?

Makes a bit of a difference there, I think.


But you know what’s really funny?

How your analysis sounds so plausible to you and how I get the best of the deal, and my alanlysis sounds to plausible to me, with how {b]I[/b] get the best of it.

That’s why all of this analysis is a waste of time.

As far as "If you think you're going to catch me with your current roster, good luckgoes".....

You can agree or disagree with my last projection, and that does not include the trade for Dye in which you improved by 30 points or so, but I think you have to agree that the race is obviously a lot closer than the raw point totals would indicate.

The question is "How much closer?"

If it's real close, there are an awful lot of scenarios in which not that much has to happen for me to win.

I don't see any scenario where you're making up 400 points. I guarantee it's next to imposible for people that are behind in games played to make up most, if any of them up. Teams now have less days off. Players are getting days off to rest, etc. For example, the Mets only have 5 days off from now until the end of the season. Lets say I want to make up my games at CF that Beltran missed. That's only 5 oportunities to make up a game. Since he's guaranteed to get a couple of days off, I know I'm going to lose games, not make any up. The players that are behind 20, 30, 40+ games played are screwed.

Am I that far off is my projections up there?

Add in another 30 points for Dye, and it shows you up about 150.

That ain't 400.

One or two good breaks for me coupled with one or two bad breaks for you, and I can easily make up 150 points in eight weeks.

And since I figure that in the "Breaks department" you're somewhat ahead of me in good breaks vs. bad, a couple in my favor will just even things out.

What I mean is, part of the reason you're "ahead" by so much now is the "breaks" so far and the things that happened which were totally or partially unpredictable.

Take Weaver as an example.

I give you credit for knowing about him and picking the guy up in the first place and holding onto him after the Angels dropped him, but honestly....hasn't he performed way beyond your expectations?

He must have about 170 points in his 8 starts.

Wouldn't you have been overjoyed with 150?

Could anyone reasonably have expected him to do so well?

So there's 20+ points right there.

I lose Harden for the season, when he's averaging better than 16 PPG.

Suppose I had 12 more starts with him this year instead of some of the guys I gave tryouts to?

I'm not looking to turn this into a whine, but I can't for the life of me figure out why you guys keep talking about that raw points lead as if it represented the real amount that you were ahead.

All I'm saying - which is what I've been saying - is that it's closer than it looks, and as far as the breaks go, I think I've had fewer good ones and more bad ones than you've had, and if the breaks even out I have a decent shot of catching you or making it real close.

Am I so wrong and off base in thinking that?

F****ng bullpen.

Don't anybody talk to me for a day or two

Disreagrd the above.

Talk to me all you want. I'm over it.

WTF are you talking about? What do you call the post I made before your "analysis"?

I thoroughly analyzed it before I did it for 2 days -- why do I need to share it with you? If I thought I was getting a bad deal, then I wouldn't have done it. Talk about silly. :p [/b][/quote]That sounds a bit hostile there….. “why do I need to share it with you?”

Of course you don’t. I'm just trying to get some conversation going.

Of course I know that you analyzed it, and of course I know that you figured you got the better of the deal or you wouldn't have made it.

But your comments were made before mine, and I was wondering what your response was to my comments.

How you figured Howard was better than Dunn., when Dunn has outscored him for the season 434 - 100, about .3 FPPG.

And if you’re from the “What have you done for me lately” school, Dunn outscored Howard last month 121 – 89, about one full point per game.

And you tell me it’s because Howard’s batting average is higher.

I bet Dunn’s on base percentage is higher, and possibly his slugging percentage also, which is more important in this game.

Plus, Dunn plays two positions, which may not be a necessity for you, but it’s certainly a help.

And most importantly, if DB is closer to you in the standings than I am, why you would rather trade with him and give him the opportunity to improve his team – which he clearly does and I think you’d agree – than trade with me and give me the chance to improve my team?

And I know that you didn’t weaken yourself much by trading Zambrano with only 33 starts left and that the net balance improved your team.

I said that somewhere.

Now, if you want to tell me that you just have a feeling that Howard is gonna do better than Dunn over the next two months and you went with your gut, I can’t argue with that,even though it’s was probably worth sacrificing a few points to trade with me instead of DB since DB is so much closer to you.

But going strictly by the numbers - any way that I slice them - I really don’t understand how you figure Howard is better than Dunn.

I like Howard because I used to watch him play for the BlueClaws. Good enough?

And I know DB is closer in the standings - I felt it'd be more exciting with someone close other than JL, and figured he'd be it. You're way too far off to be considered "competition". :p

Oh...that explains everything.

You have a personal affinity for Howard, kinda like the one that DJ has for Biggio that made him trade away Capuano.

No problem.

Lemme copy and paste that post also - espewcially the part about me being too far behind to be considered competition* - for my big compilation at the end of the season.

*Altho after today.....

Your chart counts on everyone playing all their offensive games. Like I said, it will not happen this late in the season. It's mathematically impossible the way teams are scheduled to play almost every day from now until the end of the season. I've made my roster so I have several players to play each position. I've been playing a full roster every day, all season, and even I'm (-) games at several positions. I'm just much less behind than you guys. I knew as soon as the season started and some of you played only one player at their positions, that it would cost you dearly by the end of the season. And I was right. Almost all those lost games will never be made up. ...You also don't figure in bullpens. As far as I can tell, DB is the only one with a bullpen as good as mine. And your patchwork pen is the worst by far.

My bullpen isn't that bad (well, lately maybe). And I'm not THAT far behind in games played... :p

Your bullpen is ok. There aren't many times I feel sorry for PL, but after today, I feel for him. That has to be a season record for bad RP in 1 day. As for you games played, you're 20+ games back. At the end of the season, it will cost you from 60-100 points.

Yeah, my bullpen is the worst.

As far as making up the games goes, it's gonna be a lot closer - for me, at least - than you think.

I have a pretty good handle on the whole thing, I think.

About how many games do you think I'm behind now and about how many do you think I'll fall short?

You're 23 games below the max, and I'm 4 games over the max. I don't see those numbers changing much at all. I've been playing multiple players at each position all year, and even I have games to make up at 3 positions.