I've always been a little suspicious about plaw's projections simply because there is no way to predict how many relief points someone will score. even when they said I'd finish in first and now that I and some others are way far from getting 162 games at all positions, the projections mean even less.

having so many games less at C was what made me really interested in Hernandez. McCann is just great but he doesn't play everyday and Hernandez still might bat DH when he is not the catcher. I also loved having Dye at my RF - especially since I picked him on the waiver pool - but I believe I can do a decent fit with the 3 RF's I have left. but the biggest reason why I made the deal was Josh Johnson. I thought I was heavy-deep in SP when I traded Smoltz but I quickly changed my mind. Bonderman and Schilling (probably) and Arroyo (definitely) have already had the best of their game for the year. Cain and Young are a joke and the only guy I expect to have a better second half is Jake Peavy.

JL made the first offer which I refused but I kept thinking and I couldn't let go the fact that Johnson is the NL ERA leader and plays in a pitcher's park half of his games. he's also too young to track and he plays for a shitty team, I know.

anyway, I believe I improved my team with this trade. I don't know if I improved JL's even more. really, I don't know how to play this way. in such a small league like ours, everything you do affects everybody else - picking a certain player on the waiver pool just to avoid someone else, for instance - and I didn't even put too much thought into that.

Sunday (official)

There's a little bit of fuzzy math there, because you can't use positions that you're ahead of the pace at to offset the positions at which you're behind.

I have you at -3, and myself at -25.

Without going into detail on how I manage that aspect of the game, I don't expect to finish much worse than -10 or so, and possibly do better.

I guess we'll see......

Yes, you improved your team.

But I believe JL improved his even more for the reason I stated:

Because he has so many SPs, and so few starts left, he can hit the 162 without Johnson and, IMO, without any significant drop-off in the expectancy of what he will score from his SPs.

So the net gain for him is whatever he will get from Dye instead of whoever else he was using in RF.

With about 60 games to go, and figuring Dye to be worth .75 FPPG above whoever else he was using there, I figure that the addition of Dye was worth about 40-45 points to him.

I don't think you gain as much by adding Johnson.

As far as projections go, you're right about relief pitching, and I've been saying that all along.

That's the most difficult category to predict because of some of the huge minus days involved that are unpredictable.

JL's "Trash Talk" on his home page:

Who would have thought JG would be my only competition?.



LOL...You do come up with a good one every now and then.

Lemme file that one away for future reference also, along with some of JG's sillier comments.

I just read for my name. :p

Maybe JG traded with me knowing that I'll be gone for the last two weeks of the season and won't be able to manage my team.

(Sorry I missed the fun this weekend guys. I was visiting family and didn't get online much. )

Just in case Plaw missed it! [/b][/quote]I guess you did miss it.

Just for the record....

I was asked by someone if the July 30th trading tade was a mistake or not, since the real trading deadline is July 31st.

I hadn't noticed - I just assumed it was the last day in July - But just for the record, if anyone else noticed or was wondering, it was a mistake.

I must have thought that there are only 30 days in July.

The only team I'm really concerned about is DB's.

Are you turning into Plaw Jr or something? I'd be more concerned w/ me since I'll have more games played than DB, but yeah, he's definitely 3rd Place material not to be taken lightly.

As for Plaw, he's going backwards and is now 435 pts out of 1st... so yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about him... :p

Are you turning into Plaw Jr or something? I'd be more concerned w/ me since I'll have more games played than DB, but yeah, he's definitely 3rd Place material not to be taken lightly.

As for Plaw, he's going backwards and is now 435 pts out of 1st... so yeah, I wouldn't worry too much about him... :p [/b][/quote] I'm not too worried about you because I'm ahead of you with plenty of pitching starts in hand. I'm worried about DB because he has a couple of pitching starts in hand, and a scary offense.

Wow, how the mighty has fallen.

Shelton sent down to the minors.

I guess it's hard to keep up a 150+ homer pace.

I'm glad I changed my mind, and decided about 15 minutes before game time to give Johnson one last start before he heads off to his new team. 29 points!

Sure... NOW Florida wins one... :rolleyes:

My draft team just gets better and better. :rolleyes:

Well,it's true that yesterday i went a bit backwards, but that was one day.

Seems to me that prior to yesterday I had made up more than 100 points on you in less than a week.

I don't ecpext to gain ground every day.

And JL...what's that?

You commenting on someone having pitching starts in hand against you?

You mean to tell me that you think that they do mean something?

Pitching and position players are apples and oranges. You can play 6 pitchers every day to make up games if you'd like. The only way to make up the other positions is hope your starters play every game from now to the end of the year, and fill in the roster spot on the odd day off, which won't happen very much from now until the end of the season.

Again....

Without going into detail on how I manage that aspect of the game, suffice it to say that while I don't expect to reach 1458 - and I don't think anyone will - I don't expect to be 25 games short at the end, either.

You can't perform magic. Teams have only 4 or 5 days off until the end of the year. Tell me how if you minus 5 or more games at a position you going to make them up? Plus, with little time off the next 6 weeks, look for players to be getting days off for rest. I predict everyone will actually lose more games in the next 6 weeks.

Oh... we're now using Raw Points as a valid indicator?

Monday (official)

Oh... we're now using Raw Points as a valid indicator? [/b][/quote]

I could've seen what the difference in the projection was, but I didn't have one handy for "less than a week ago".

During that time span, though, the number of starts in hand that I had decreased a bit, and as a result I got closer in raw points.

Why am I letting him suck me into this conversation yet again when he knows good and god damn well what's happening here?).

Of course raw points is what matters, but it only matters at the end, when the game is over.

At this point, AS YOU WELL KNOW BUT REFUSE TO ADMIT BECAUSE APPARENTLY YOU LIKE TO BREAK MY BALLS, the raw points total is relative to games played.

( Calling Dr. Moe....Calling Dr. larry....Calling Dr. Curley....Someone please come and examine my head for engaging in this conversation, and let me know if there's anything there....)

What it comes down to (for the umpteenth friggin' time), is this (If you would be so kind as to answer the question):

All other things being equal,

Would you rather have a 200 point lead in raw points against a player with 25 starts in hand and an average of about 12.5 FPs per start or

Would you rather be trailing by 200 points, but have 25 starts in hand (with an average of 12.5 FPs per start) against the guy you're trailing?

Man, you sure like to repeat yourself!

Well, first off, double that lead to 400 pts (on the nose again, from me), and probably the former. Also, you don't have 25 starts in hand, you have 23 (against me) - I have 30 to go, you have 53. That's worth about 287 pts (on avg) potential toward the 400. If you even get all those starts in. You also seem to be behind a little more than I am in offensive games played.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.

Well, if he would have used Haren yesterday.

Cuz you never seem to get the point.

How about answering the question....

Which guy would you rather be? (And I wasn't necessarily trying to directly compare your stats and mine.)

Or let me put it another way....At what point would you rather be the guy who is trailing?

Even if you had 25 starts in hand I wouldn't expect you to not care if you trailed by 500 points, obviously.

But on the other hand, if you had 25 starts in hand and weren't overjoyed if you trailed by only, say, 100 points, then I'd say you were nuts.

So the real question is "How many points do you think 25 starts in hand is worth?

Cuz you never seem to get the point.[/b][/quote]

I basically answered that in my previous post. Depends on how many points you can expect back. Using your numbers, about 287 pts for 23 starts in hand. :p

Fair enough.

OK, the next one is a two-parter:

Don't I have a reasonable expectancy of actually getting those 287 points - possibly less, possibly more, but certainly within that range, and

If our per-game averages for pitching are about the same (which I believe they are) doesn't that also mean that I will probably gain about 287 points, and only be 113 points behind you at the point at which I catch up, and

Is it unreasonable to assume that with a higher offensive per-game average than you, if I can stay even in relief pitching I might possibly win or make it very close?

(Looking for a yes-yes-no here, sports fans )

WTF? Aren't you forgetting who's actually winning this game?

:p

He's right, he's talking about me -- the one who's actually gonna win this game. :p

Well if Wagner does what he did tonight, you might.
3 pitches, -19 points. :rolleyes:
...At least Smoltz, who wasn't good enough for PL's team, made up for it, and continues to be undefeated for me. :p