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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273559
05/08/06 06:19 PM
05/08/06 06:19 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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No, it's not breadsticks. :rolleyes: It's garlic bread, damn it  Can we please get at least that right? (Was that post approved by Don Cardi? :p  ) 
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273561
05/09/06 08:26 AM
05/09/06 08:26 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Monday's Scores & Tuesday's Probables & Standings DB 1671 Tor (30) 48 1719 NYM Martinez 6-0 2.72
TM 1651 Tor (30) 54 1705 StL Carpenter 4-3 2.35
PL 1622 ChC (-13) 12 1634 StL
CC 1620 ChC (-13) 04 1624 NYM
JL 1615 ChC (-13) 07 1622 Sea Hernandez 2-4 5.40
GG 1567 Hou (-2) 26 1593 Hou Pettitte 2-5 5.06
JG 1559 Hou (-2) 21 1580 NYM
DC 1534 Hou (-2) 40 1574 Ari Batista 4-2 5.29
SC 1331 Hou (-2) 47 1378 Hou
LZ 1194 Bos (00) 15 1209 Bos OK Don Cardi.... This is it..... Showdown. Gunfight at the O.K. Corral if necessary. I don't care what strategy explanations you do or don't owe anyone or that I'm not paying you $2 million a year to manage my team like George Steinbrenner pays Joe Torre. And I don't want to that whole Whatever my reasons, they are MY reasons and in no way should I have to be made to feel that I have to explain all of my moves to you..... speech, either. What I DO want to know -- what I DEMAND TO KNOW IS..... How the hell can you take Batista tonight when you have pitchers like Pedro and Carpenter going?    
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273562
05/09/06 09:17 AM
05/09/06 09:17 AM
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Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 18,238
The Ravenite Social Club
Don Cardi
Caporegime
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Caporegime
Joined: Aug 2001
Posts: 18,238
The Ravenite Social Club
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Originally posted by plawrence: What I [b]DO want to know -- what I DEMAND TO KNOW IS..... How the hell can you take Batista tonight when you have pitchers like Pedro and Carpenter going? [/b]
PLAW : "Is it true that you took Batista?"
DON CARDI : " Don't ask me about my business..."
PLAW : "No."
DON CARDI (as he slams his hand on the desk) "Enough!"
(then)
"Alright. This one time [Cardi points his finger] -- this one time I'll let you ask me about my affairs..."
Well first of all I figured that the majority here would go with either Carpenter ot Pedro. I then figured that most may go with Carpenter over Pedro because the thinking is that the Mets/Phillies matchup tonight could be a real tough game. And I also happen to think that tonights game can be a real close and tough one. Pedro is a spectacular 6 - 0. But he just may be due for a loss, and being that they are on the road against a tough division team, I decided to stay away from Pedro this time around. Now Arizona, who I believe is what, 4th in the league in pitching, is playing a very weak Pittsburgh team. Pitts has lost more than they've won at home, and Arizona has played above .500 on the road. They have won 7 of their last 8, losing a close one to the Reds, and are pretty hot coming up against a very weak Pitt team. In his last outing Batista pitched a solid 7 innings only giving up 1 earned run. So figuring in all that I mentioned above with the fact that I am back in the standings, I thought that Batista may be a decent bet for me and a chance for me to pick up some ground in the standings if the majority went with Pedro or Carpenter. Do you always go with the favorites in every race Plaw? [PLAW leaves the room to fix Don Cardi a drink. At the same time, SC, Gina, and Letizia enter the office. SC shakes Cardi's hand. Plaw turns his head to watch
them. They embrace Cardi, then kiss his hand.]
SC (kissing Cardi's hand) "Batista..."
[Lavinia kisses Cardi's hand as Gina shuts the door blocking Plaw's view]
Don Cardi 
Don Cardi Five - ten years from now, they're gonna wish there was American Cosa Nostra. Five - ten years from now, they're gonna miss John Gotti.
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273564
05/09/06 10:10 AM
05/09/06 10:10 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 14,900
Beth E
Crabby
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Crabby
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 14,900
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Originally posted by Don Sicilia:
In this game, I can't get offense. In the Yahoo game, I can't get pitching.
What's the deal, yo!!!!!!!! Stop picking Barry Bonds. :p
How about a little less questions and a lot more shut the hell up - Brian Griffin
When there's a will...put me in it.
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273565
05/09/06 10:36 AM
05/09/06 10:36 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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I got it, DC.... You're confusing Batista, the Arizona pitcher, with Hyman Roth's friend Batista, from Cuba. 
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273566
05/09/06 10:38 AM
05/09/06 10:38 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by Don Sicilia:
In this game, I can't get offense. In the Yahoo game, I can't get pitching. It's not like you're totally screwed up. In this game you're first, at least. In the Yahoo game you're last. If I were you, I'd put all my starters on waivers and start all over. Fuck 'em.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273568
05/09/06 12:57 PM
05/09/06 12:57 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
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Tuesday's PS Lines...
DB NYM Martinez -130 Estimate closer to -104
TM StL Carpenter -260 Day's Favorite; Est -179
PL StL
CC NYM
JL Sea Hernandez -165 Estimate closer to -219
GG Hou Pettitte -110 Estimate closer to -135
JG NYM
DC Ari Batista -110 Estimate closer to -184
SC Hou
LZ Bos Beckett +155 Underdog vs Big Unit; Est +162
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey!  lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273570
05/09/06 01:20 PM
05/09/06 01:20 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by Don Sicilia:
What is "Estimate Closer..."? My "source" presents the current line, and after an extensive analysis, estimates what they think the line should be... I just wish they'd do it the day BEFORE the games, but no, so there's really no advantage to that information for our games... 
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273572
05/10/06 04:07 AM
05/10/06 04:07 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by J Geoff:
Nor have I checked to see how accurate their estimates have been... Actually, I'll do that now for yesterday.. Vhecking the accuracy of their W-L recird for betting purposes is meaningless, unless you're gonna keep track of how you would do making the same size bet on their favorite pick every day. If you're always laying 8-5 or 9-5 or wahtever, you need a winning percentage of well over 60% just to break even. But if you only lay 6-5 every day, then you only need a winning percentage of about 55%. Since every day you're laying a different price (and any system which purports to give you the team most likely to win every day will just about always pick a favorite), it's impossible to know if you would have made or lost money betting those picks unless you made a mythical bet of the same amount every day on their selection. That's way bettors who wager on baseball that know what they're doing look for "value" in the line, rather than winners. A team that's an 8-5 favorite (-160) will just about always look like the likelier team to win, but the smart bettor will ask himself "Are they likely to win more or than 62.5% of the time? A team that's a 7-5 underdog (+140) will just about always look like the likelier team to lose, but the smart bettor will ask himself "Are they likely to lose more or less than 41.7% of the time? As far as our game goes, though, I guess there could be value in knowing which team thebetting public thinks has the greatest chance of winning. I never really looked to see if my betting site posts the lines on the next days games before 3:00 AM. They're up there now - I'll post them in a minute - and I'll check tomorrow to see about what time they post them for Thursday's games.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273573
05/10/06 04:26 AM
05/10/06 04:26 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by plawrence:
As far as our game goes, though, I guess there could be value in knowing which team thebetting public thinks has the greatest chance of winning. That value is very limited, though, because it takes into account which team has the best chance of winning, which is way different then betting on which pitching staff will have the best pitching score for the day. Anyway, here are some selected lines from my off-shore sportsbook for today's (Thursday) games: Mets Glavine -112
Phillies Lidle +102
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Boston Schilling +110
NY Yankees Mussina -125
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Texas Padilla -165
Arizona Webb -150
Houston Buchholz -105
Chic Cubs Zambrano -118
Tampa Bay Kazmir +114 First of all, it should b noted that this line is very early. In other words, very little money has been bet at these prices yet. As the bets come on, the lines will be adjusted accordingly to attract money on the side that the book needs to "balance" themselves. If I have a chance, about 6:30 PM or so tomorrow I'll post the lines again so we can see what, if any, movement there was. These lines, however, may be more accurate than the ones that reflect actual betting, since they are set by "expert" linemakers (altho it should be pointed out that the line does not necessarily reflect the relative chances of a team winning but, rather, is designed to attract an equal amount of betting action on each side). I threw the Texas line in there, because at -165 they're the biggest favorite of the day - theoretically the team with the best chance of winning. But that's because they're at home (in a definite hitter's park), playing a presumably much weaker team (Minnesota), and facing a horrible (so far) pitcher (Lohse, 1-3, 9.71). The thing to remember here is that just because Texas may have the best chance of winning their game, I don't think that anyone in the world would think that their pitching staff has the best chance of coming in with the best pitching score for the day. Interestingly, BTW, is the fact that the Chicago White Sox are "off the board", with no line listed. That's because Contreras apparently is not pitching, and they're not sure who is gonna pitch for the White Sox, so the sportsbook doesn't want to take the chance of coming out with a "wrong" line that can be taken advantage of by someone who does know who's gonna pitch for the Sox.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273575
05/10/06 11:34 AM
05/10/06 11:34 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
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Thanks for clearing all that up, Plaw. I was enjoying it up 'til the part about Contrerass not pitching...  PS - GG's back already?? You better not quit! :p
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273576
05/10/06 11:39 AM
05/10/06 11:39 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
Don Sicilia
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 7,361
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JG gets to have fun with a knuckleballer. Here are his Triple-A stats... 40 IP, 0 HR, 0.45 ERA Not too shabby..... Gina!! Welcome back! 
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273577
05/10/06 12:19 PM
05/10/06 12:19 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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I don't think I'm gonna be around before the games start later, so here's an update as of noe on what the lines are: 3:30 This Morning 12:00 Noon today
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Mets Glavine -112 -108
Phillies Lidle +102 -102
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Boston Schilling +110 +112
NY Yankees Mussina -125 -122
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Texas Padilla -165 -180
Arizona Webb -150 -160
Houston Buchholz -105 +103
Chic Cubs Zambrano -118 -114
Tampa Bay Kazmir +114 +105 In the Mets-Phils game, the book needs more money to be bet on the Mets, since the price dropped from -112 to -108, maaking them more attractive, and the price on the PHils went from getting 1.02 for a dollar, to getting 1.00 for putting up 1.02, making them less attractive. I'm not sure what the movement in the Yanks-Bost game indicates (and I don't feel like a lengthy explanation as to why); Maybe JL will read this and stick in his .02 We can also deduce that since this morning more money was bet on Texas, since the line went from -160 to -180, which means that if you want to bet on Texas you have to put up 1.80 to win a dollar instead of 1.60 Theoretically this attracts money to the other side, since probably now instead of getting 1.50 or 1.55 for a dollar risked on Minnesota, you get back 1.60 or 1.70 Same thing with Arizona. They were the favorite and the line moved up, which means you have to risk more to bet on them, and you get more back if you bet on Pittsburgh. For the Houston game it's different. They were a slight underdog (the Dodgers were probably -115 this morning), and apparently so much was bet on the Dodgers that Houston is now even a bigger underdog. The Cubs were a favorite, now they're still the favorite, but the price is lower, meaning that more money was bet on the other side at that price, so they are trying to attract money to the Cubs.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273586
05/10/06 07:47 PM
05/10/06 07:47 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Just making sense, as usual.
Just speaking the truth, asking the right questions, and calling it as I see it which, apparently, is more than some people can handle.
But this is a Sports Forum, so let's keep the discussion limited to sports, shall we kids?
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273587
05/10/06 07:49 PM
05/10/06 07:49 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by Just Lou:
I wanted to delete the post, but from some reason I'm not allowed. If you were gonna try and help me out with an explanation on the movement of the Yanks-Boston line.....
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273588
05/10/06 10:00 PM
05/10/06 10:00 PM
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Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 4,206
Los Angeles
Letizia B.
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 4,206
Los Angeles
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quote:
Originally posted by ginaitaliangirl:
I feel completely out of the baseball loop right now. No, seriously... I know you knew that, but it's worth a mention. It's like a Gigi/Zia face-off. :p I'm going tonight, possibly tomorrow as well, if I can convince my cousin or anyone else to call in sick. It's at noon tomorrow, I think. Which means a tan for Zia. You know what though... I'm kinda torn!! I rooted for your guys last year after the Dodgers got knocked out, so I feel like I'm an honorary Astros fan. Not enough to actually root for them at the game and risk getting beat up, though. I'll just be wishing they could both win. The Dodgers are on a hell of a streak though! <---- There ya go, I probably just jinxed it. You're welcome. :p
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