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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273739
05/28/06 07:51 PM
05/28/06 07:51 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by plawrence:
Looks to me like....
Smoltz is exactly the kind of pitcher to use on a day when Santana is pitching and you want to go "unpredictable", not a guy like Chacin (just my .02 of course).... Goes to show 'ya what I know  :rolleyes: However, on the other hand.... Originally posted by plawrence:
In fact, with a little bit of luck, they could theoretically do better (not changing their team) than they would have had they changed their team. How about it JL? Was it accidental or intentional?
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273741
05/28/06 08:27 PM
05/28/06 08:27 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by plawrence:
I, after patiently including you day after day, finally announced that I wasn't gonna post your scores any more, it was he who made that incredibly mean "It's about time" comment. What I meant by that comment, which was directed at Plaw, was that it was about time he saw that I was right/justified in doing the same thing he ended up doing. Or something like that. :p  Not a knock on the lovely Zia.  
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey!  lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273742
05/28/06 09:21 PM
05/28/06 09:21 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
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Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Nice recovery :p . Sorta like how I'm gonna feel, I guess, when you stop giving me an argument every time I say something here.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273743
05/28/06 09:27 PM
05/28/06 09:27 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by Just Lou:
[quote]Originally posted by plawrence:
[b] How about it JL?
Was it accidental or intentional? Look back about 12 posts. [/b][/quote]Oh.....somehow I missed that one. You couldn't do that on a Sunday? :p (The Borgata has a 24-hour "Business Center", BTW)
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273745
05/28/06 10:42 PM
05/28/06 10:42 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Gee... that never happened to me. I always leave exactly when I'm supposed to  (Yeah, right :rolleyes: )
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273746
05/29/06 07:19 AM
05/29/06 07:19 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Sunday's Scores & Monday's ProbablesI added another stat category to the Probable Pitcher's record - call it "Raw Fantasy Points Per Game" (RFPPG). What it is is the average number of FPs per start excluding the five points that a pitching staff gets for the win. We've talked about this (that's why in the Yahoo game you only get credit for the points by the SP), and all at one time or another have expressed the sentiment that a pitcher's W-L record is, to a certain extent, part of a team effort rather than an individual one. Since we all choose a PS every day based pretty strictly (I believe) on who the SP is, the RFPPG average tells us how many points the SP has earned per game strictly thru his own efforts. If you want to know his total FPPG average, just multiply his RFPPF total by the number of starts he has (obtainable from the first stat in his line, his team's W-L record in games he has started), add in 5 points for each team win, and then divide by his number of starts (his team's total W-L record in games he has started). Just for a basis of comparison, here are the leaders as of this morning in RFPPG: Sabathia 17.0 Webb 16.5 Pedro 16.4 Contreras 14.8 Mussina 14.2 
DB 2696 Min (20) 37 2733 Oak Haren 5-5 3.91 9.3
TM 2561 Min (20) 38 2599 SaF Morris 3-7 5.49 1.2
JL 2554 Bos (26) 42 2596 Oak
PL 2531 Min (20) 40 2571 Tor Halladay 8-1 2.77 11.8
JG 2452 Min (20) 38 2490 Oak
CC 2350 StL (-22) -10 2340 Tor
DC 2212 Atl (-10) 13 2225 LAD Penny 6-4 2.31 10.6
GG 2089 Atl (-10) 12 2101 Tor
SC 2060 Min (20) 35 2095 LAA Lackey 4-6 3.50 9.5
LZ 1779 Bos (26) 41 1820 LAD
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273748
05/29/06 10:55 AM
05/29/06 10:55 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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But how did you ever come up with picking Morris, TM?  I'm happy that you did, of course; He's been absolutely terrible.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273750
05/30/06 03:52 AM
05/30/06 03:52 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
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From The Department Of Useless Statistics I haven't updated the pitching and hitting stats since the week that ended Sunday, May 7th. I know everyone has missed them - I can tell from all of the posts asking where they were and wondering when I was gonna post the new ones. :rolleyes: So.... Here's where we stood on the Morning of Monday, May 8th: Pitching Hitting
W-L E.R.A. Pts ABs TBs Slug% Pts Total
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DB 26-11 3.66 622 1147 535 .466 1049 1671
TM 27-10 3.36 671 1101 485 .441 980 1651
PL 25-12 3.85 611 1142 503 .440 1011 1622
CC 22-16 3.74 574 1115 526 .472 1046 1620
JL 22-15 3.55 625 1169 500 .428 990 1615
GG 22-16 3.03 464 1127 543 .482 1103 1567
JG 21-18 4.09 507 1121 524 .467 1052 1559
DC 25-12 3.63 583 1058 480 .454 951 1534
SC 19-14 4.11 463 983 434 .442 868 1331
LZ 20-12 4.64 348 914 401 .439 846 1194 Pitching Hitting
W-L E.R.A. Pts ABs TBs Slug% Pts Total
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DB 5-2 2.87 157 206 119 .578 223 380
JL 4-3 3.66 116 233 116 .498 216 332
TM 5-2 2.00 179 204 73 .358 143 322
SC 1-6 5.91 45 205 108 .527 204 249
JG 3-4 4.38 88 228 83 .364 149 237
CC 3-4 3.94 85 224 73 .326 145 230
DC 3-4 4.74 73 217 82 .378 153 226
PL 4-3 4.06 88 152 69 .454 134 222
LZ 2-2 5.34 36 184 72 .391 146 182
GG 2-4 6.27 27 216 80 .370 150 177 Pitching Hitting
W-L E.R.A. Pts ABs TBs Slug% Pts Total
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TM 7-0 2.78 161 214 108 .505 214 375
PL 5-2 3.14 143 199 107 .538 224 367
JL 4-3 3.39 128 229 110 .480 212 340
JG 4-3 2.95 138 217 105 .484 199 337
DB 5-2 3.68 127 210 89 .424 173 300
CC 4-3 3.71 98 204 92 .451 198 296
SC 4-3 4.65 78 221 104 .471 195 273
LZ 4-2 4.50 72 196 91 .464 165 237
DC 4-3 5.18 50 208 92 .442 169 219
GG 1-6 7.57 (-32) 222 99 .446 178 146 Pitching Hitting
W-L E.R.A. Pts ABs TBs Slug% Pts Total
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PL 7-0 1.94 165 201 98 .488 223 388
DB 5-2 2.67 168 224 102 .455 214 382
JG 7-0 2.91 145 193 100 .518 212 357
JL 4-3 4.65 95 220 101 .459 214 309
TM 4-3 4.41 92 209 79 .378 159 251
DC 5-2 5.29 58 212 94 .443 188 246
SC 5-2 4.35 83 210 80 .381 159 242
GG 6-1 4.92 76 199 74 .372 135 211
LZ 5-2 4.00 93 171 61 .357 114 207
CC 4-3 6.34 25 222 100 .450 169 194 Pitching Hitting
W-L E.R.A. Pts. ABs TBs Slug% Pts. Total
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DB 41-17 3.45 1074 1787 845 .473 1659 2733
TM 43-15 3.27 1103 1728 744 .431 1496 2599
JL 34-24 3.67 964 1851 827 .447 1632 2596
PL 41-17 3.55 1007 1694 777 .459 1592 2571
JG 35-25 3.84 878 1759 812 .462 1612 2490
CC 33-26 4.06 782 1765 791 .448 1558 2340
DC 37-21 4.16 764 1695 748 .441 1461 2225
GG 31-27 4.84 535 1764 796 .451 1566 2101
SC 29-25 4.42 669 1619 726 .448 1426 2095
LZ 31-18 4.58 549 1464 625 .427 1271 1820
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273751
05/30/06 04:57 AM
05/30/06 04:57 AM
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,032
Texas
ginaitaliangirl
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 5,032
Texas
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Well, Plaw, you know how much I normally appreciate your stats, but a quick glance at these recent ones will tell you why I wasn't exactly making any requests. Zia and I have decided to post our lineup. No, not our official lineup - do you really think we'd let any of our secrets out?! Then, you guys might jump ahead of us in the standings or something. :p Instead, this is, I suppose you could say, an "alternative lineup." We chose to work together to develop a team - mostly intended for fun, as it doesn't follow the salary cap, but a serious lineup nonetheless. Though we feel we've touched upon perfection, we'd love to hear feedback on it from all of you. It was only through very thorough research that we came up with this masterpiece: C - Brad Ausmus 1B - Derrek Lee 2B - Jeff Kent 3B - Alex Rodriguez SS - Felipe Lopez LF - Orlando Palmeiro CF - Carlos Beltran RF - Shawn Green P - Mike Mussina The only spot missing is the DH - any suggestions that match our strategy? 
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273752
05/30/06 06:53 AM
05/30/06 06:53 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Monday's Scores & Tuesday's Probables( Reposted from yesterday:) I added another stat category to the Probable Pitcher's record - call it "Raw Fantasy Points Per Game" (RFPPG). What it is is the average number of FPs per start excluding the five points that a pitching staff gets for the win. We've talked about this (that's why in the Yahoo game you only get credit for the points by the SP), and all at one time or another have expressed the sentiment that a pitcher's W-L record is, to a certain extent, part of a team effort rather than an individual one. Since we all choose a PS every day based pretty strictly (I believe) on who the SP is, the RFPPG average tells us how many points the SP has earned per game strictly thru his own efforts. If you want to know his total FPPG average, just multiply his RFPPF total by the number of starts he has (obtainable from the first stat in his line, his team's W-L record in games he has started), add in 5 points for each team win, and then divide by his number of starts (his team's total W-L record in games he has started). Just for a basis of comparison, here are the leaders as of this morning in RFPPG: Sabathia 17.0 Webb 16.5 Pedro 16.4 Contreras 14.8 Mussina 14.2 ------------ Some day for pitching yesterday.  :rolleyes: Only SC (32) with a decent score....
DB 2733 Oak (05) 21 2754 Cle Sabathia 4-2 1.52 17.0
TM 2599 SaF (03) 46 2645 Cle
JL 2596 Oak (05) 41 2637 Oak Halsey 1-4 4.61 2.2
PL 2571 Tor (09) 24 2595 Cle
JG 2490 Oak (05) 29 2519 Cle
CC 2340 Tor (09) 41 2381 Bos Beckett 7-3 3.80 8.8
DC 2225 LAD (07) 36 2261 Phi Myers 6-4 2.86 10.2
GG 2101 Tor (09) 40 2141 CWS Buehrle 8-2 2.62 9.0
SC 2095 LAA (32) 48 2143 Bos
LZ 1820 LAD (07) 32 1852 LAD Sele 3-1 1.69 13.5
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273755
05/30/06 09:52 AM
05/30/06 09:52 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 22,902
New York
SC
Consigliere
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Consigliere
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 22,902
New York
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Originally posted by plawrence:
I added another stat category to the Probable Pitcher's record - call it "Raw Fantasy Points Per Game" (RFPPG).
What it is is the average number of FPs per start [b]excluding the five points that a pitching staff gets for the win.
Since we all choose a PS every day based pretty strictly (I believe) on who the SP is, the RFPPG average tells us how many points the SP has earned per game strictly thru his own efforts.
[/b] Thats not entirely true. A SP also gets points for each inning pitched. Thus, you'd have to adjust your new stat to reflect that as well.
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273757
05/30/06 11:32 AM
05/30/06 11:32 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
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JL 2596 Oak (05) 41 2637 Oak Halsey 1-4 4.61 2.2 AC again?
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273759
05/30/06 02:13 PM
05/30/06 02:13 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by SC:
[quote]Originally posted by plawrence:
[b]I added another stat category to the Probable Pitcher's record - call it "Raw Fantasy Points Per Game" (RFPPG).
What it is is the average number of FPs per start [b]excluding the five points that a pitching staff gets for the win.
Since we all choose a PS every day based pretty strictly (I believe) on who the SP is, the RFPPG average tells us how many points the SP has earned per game strictly thru his own efforts.
[/b] Thats not entirely true. A SP also gets points for each inning pitched. Thus, you'd have to adjust your new stat to reflect that as well. [/b][/quote]It does include innings pitched. It's innings pitched x 3 + Strikeouts, minus earned runs allowed x 3 + walks allowed and hits allowed. or 3(IP) + Ks - ER(3) + BBs + Hits
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273760
05/30/06 02:20 PM
05/30/06 02:20 PM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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Originally posted by Just Lou:
....The A's are the biggest favorite today. Yeah....my book has them at -290. Phils are -220 and Boston is -210.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273761
05/30/06 05:14 PM
05/30/06 05:14 PM
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Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 4,206
Los Angeles
Letizia B.
Underboss
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Underboss
Joined: Apr 2004
Posts: 4,206
Los Angeles
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Originally posted by Don Cardi: Well actually, I had planned on picking the Angels, and I must have saw the LA part and mistakenly clicked on the
LAD thinking that I was picking the LAA! Another reason why they should have stuck with just "Anaheim," those idiots. :rolleyes: They're not even close to L.A., and yet now there's people mixing them up. Hey, I have a question for any of you... are there any other teams who go by their team name followed by their city, like "of _____"? For sure I know there's no other team who goes by the name of another city, followed by their own city. :rolleyes:
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273763
05/31/06 02:50 AM
05/31/06 02:50 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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This came up the first time JG posted real life betting lines....
While the tream with the best chance of winning the game theoretically gives you the best chance of picking up the 5 points for the win, it is far from necessarily the best choice to get you the most pitching points in total.
Any game with the Yankees at home against a team like KC or Baltimore with a pitcher other than Mussina is a good example of that.
As far as mediocre teams like Oakland go, they don't ever deserve to be such big faves against anyone, IMO, especially with a guy like Halsey pitching.
At most, that game should have been maybe -240 or -260.
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273764
05/31/06 04:07 AM
05/31/06 04:07 AM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by plawrence:
As far as mediocre teams like Oakland go, they don't ever deserve to be such big faves against anyone, IMO, especially with a guy like Halsey pitching.
At most, that game should have been maybe -240 or -260. The final line (at least with my source) was -220... and their "estimated line after detailed analysis" was -172 (Final Score: KC 8, OAK 7) As for CLE (Sabathia) the line was only -130... and their estimated line actually put them at +134 (Final Score: CLE 4, CWS 3) So yeah... it could be a helpful guideline to see who's favored, but as we all know, anything can happen in baseball! Like Glaus & Wells hitting 5 HRs combined tonight. Or Lance Freakin' Niekro hitting 2 HRs upon returning from the DL...
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273765
05/31/06 04:35 AM
05/31/06 04:35 AM
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Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
plawrence
OP
RIP StatMan
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OP
RIP StatMan
Joined: Aug 2002
Posts: 15,058
The Slippery Slope
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The Cleveland line was a reflection on who the oppostion was and who was pitching for them, too, remember: The White Sox with Buehrle.
As far as "helpful guidelines to see who's favored" goes, remember this;
A "line" is not designed to measure the chances of one team or anoher winning the game.
Rather, it's designed to attract an equal amount of wagering on each side.
I find, for example (and the so-called "experts" would agree with me here), that the line on certain "public" teams - the Yankees or Braves in baseball, the Cowboys in football, or the Lakers in basketball, for example - is generally higher than I think it should be.
Also, since such a large amount of betting is generated from NYC, when the local teams are good the lines on their games are usually a bit too high as well.
Finally, keep this is mind:
Another way to look at it, and perhaps a more accurate way, is from the POV of the underdog.
Because while in the Oak-KC game for example, KC had Oakland as the -290 favorite, you don't get +290 if you bet on KC, you only get +240 or +250 or so, so the "real" line, or the true estimated chance of a team winning lies somewhere in the middle.
I can explain what I mean by that if you are really interested, but spare me if you're not.
Also, BTW, since I've been doing some real-life wagering on baseball myself lately, I'm curious to know where the "estimated line after detailed analysis" comes from and exactly what it's supposed to mean (if you care to share).
"Difficult....not impossible"
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Re: 2006 Baseball Challenge (Salary Cap Game)
#273768
05/31/06 12:49 PM
05/31/06 12:49 PM
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Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
J Geoff
The Don
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The Don
Joined: Jul 2001
Posts: 31,333
New Jersey, USA
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Originally posted by plawrence:
since I've been doing some real-life wagering on baseball myself lately, I'm curious to know where the "estimated line after detailed analysis" comes from and exactly what it's supposed to mean (if you care to share). I was hesitant to reveal my source, but I suppose it doesn't really matter since it doesn't help much in most fantasy games. But since you're betting real money, I think you should look at it... here (There are other sites that use the same StatFox data, but this one is nice and easy to read). Also notice the other sports You'll see the current lines for the day, but if you click on the Report, you'll see TONS of stats (for someone like you, it'd replace Viagra! ) including their "Power Rating Line" which takes all those stats in consideration, to give a somewhat better estimate. You may've seen StatFox before, but if you haven't... you're welcome.
I studied Italian for 2 semesters. Not once was a "C" pronounced as a "G", and never was a trailing "I" ignored! And I'm from Jersey! lol Whaddaya want me to do? Whack a guy? Off a guy? Whack off a guy? --Peter Griffin My DVDs | Facebook | Godfather Filming Locations
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