I know it's early in the season, but if your a true blue Mets fan, you have to be excited. The best start in the history of the franchise!

To me, Bannister could be the key to their rotation.


Don Cardi

They're definately off to a flying start. Barrring injuries they should at least be a contender at the end of the year. The Braves are really struggling now, so it should be a tight race. I prefer it when other teams start doing well so that it's not always the same teams in it every year.

Good luck!

I fall a bit short of being able to call myself a true "fan", but compared to the way I feel about the Yankees and my preference for NL baseball over the AL-style game, I guess I sort of am.

The key to the rotation, I think, is Pedro, because he's their best starter and the one who with a "Pedro-like" performance can lift the Mets rotation beyond the level of mediocrity.

Glavine, if he continues to perform at his present level - way beyond expectations - is a key pitcher as well.

I don't consider Bannister, Trachsel, or Zambrano to be nearly as important as Pedro or Glavine, simply because the Mets have a rotation-ready replacement available in Aaron Heilman, who might very well be better than any of the other three.

True, Heilamn's elevation to a starting role will leave the bullpen short an arm, but I think a hole like that would be a lot easier to fill than one created by the loss of a #1 or #2 starter.

The offense, though, looks strong. Although

- Nady is almost certainly hitting quite a bit over his head right now.

- With all of the games that Delgado has to play in pitcher-friendly Shea as well as Washington and Florida I don't expect him to keep up anything close to this home run pace and hit 45 or 50 homers or anything like that, and

- Floyd always worries me, with the fact that he's terribly injury prone and 35 years old

I think the ofense will be fine, because I expect

- A big year from Wright (.300+, 30-35+ homers, 110+ RBIs).

- A big improvement for Beltran, in which he has a season with numbers that are much closer to his previous seasons averages (.280 or so, 25-30 homers, 100 or mor RBIs, depending on where in the batting order he winds up hitting).

- A big improvement by Reyes, if not in his on-base percentage via walks, at least an improvement via a higher batting average. With his speed there's no reason that he shouldn't hit at least .300

Since Atlanta doesn't seem to have a starting rotation beyond Smoltz & Hudson, or a closer (or the rest of a bullpen besides), and since the rest of the division looks pretty weak, I think the Mets could actually coast to a division title - like win the thing by maybe 15 games.

Wouldn't that be amazing?

I'm not a Met fan (I don't have any thing against them, they're just not my team) but this is a great thread! As I said in the Yankee thread, I believe that The Mets will finish the regular season with a better record than The Yankees. Let's see how it all plays out.

I see what you are saying Plaw, and you are correct. However the reason that I say a kid like Bannister is key is because I am looking at it from a different point of view;

We all expect Pedro to be Pedro. And of course we know Glavine has the potential and history behind him to be a quality starter. Tracshel and Zambrano? Well in truth Tracshcel has never really gotten a fair shot under Willie Randolph, and Zambrano is too unpredictable.

But now a kid like Bannister comes along and puts three solid outings together, and one can easily make an arguement that this kid should be 3 - o instead of 2 - 0. No one expected this kid to pitch the way that he has so far. And that is why I say that if he continues to pitch like he has, then that could be key for this Mets rotation. Because it allows us to keep Heilman as a reliever ( although I always liked him when he started, potential wise )and it gives us 3 real solid pitchers in the 1-2-3 of the rotation. And having guys like Traschel and Zambrano in the mix makes this staff a respectable staff. That is why I feel that Bannister is very key to bringing this pitching staff and this rotation to another level.

His potentially being a quality starter allows a manger to utilize the rest of the staff in a more beneficial way. His potentially being a quality starter gives a manager many more options.


Let's Go Mets!!!!!!!!


Don Cardi

Either way, and I hate to put a jix on them but I don't believe in jinxes, the Mets somehow look like a lock to win the division.

That's amazing.

Just to not see The Braves win it for the gabillionth time (it gets boring) I mean they won what one W.S.! I'm rooting for The New York Mets as well. Go Mets!

AMAZING! SIMPLY AMAZING!!!!!!

Let's Go Mets!


Don Cardi

Unbelievable about Zambrano, huh?

That deal for him - trading away Kazmir - can't wind up being the worse deal in Mets history (Jim Fregosi for Nolan Ryan will always have that honor, I think), but it might alreay be regarded as the second worst.

Now I'm listening to Mike & Mike on ESPN Radio discussing the Mets possibly trading Lastings Milledge for Barry Zito.

I say "NO WAY"

First of all, the NL in general and the East in particular look so weak that I don't think the Mets even need an all-star caliber starter like Zito to make it to the World Series.

I think a mid-level starter - a guy like Kris Benson (lol), Jeff Weaver, Joel Pineiro, Glendon Rusch, etc., etc. - is more than good enough.

Pedro, Glavine, Trachsel, Bannister (when he comes back), and whoever they can pick up in a deal for a mid-level or "decent" prospect (not a Milledge-caliber guy) are fine with me, except they're still very short on depth.

(How dumb were the Mets to trade away Benson for Jorge Julio, Anna Benson notwithstanding. Who cares about her?)

Second of all, you gotta wonder if coming off his last two years (11-11, with a 4.48 in 2004, and 14-13 with a 3.86 last year) and his somewhat shaky start this year (2-2, 4.07, Zito even is an all-star caliber pitcher anymore.

And finally, he becomes a free agent after this season, so I wouldn't be willing to give up much for him unless I could sign him first.

On the other hand, you think of all of those "can't-miss" prospects....all of those "Five-Tool" guys that not only didn't become big stars, but didn't even have a career. Alex Escobar, the guy the Mets let go in the Roberto Alomar trade comes immediately to mind. Jay Payton is another one, altho he had a career at least.

I second that. You are absolutely correct.

They sure could use a Kris Benson right now. Trading a pitcher of that caliber away because of his wife. :rolleyes: Give me a break.

Now Zambrano is saying that he's had this elbow problem since he was brought over in that trade. Unbelievable.


Don Cardi

You guys can have Kris and his looney wife back. I'll make the necessary phone calls.

I would do Milledge for Dontrelle Willis, though.

You're insane.

You wouldn't trade an unproven minor league hitter for a proven left-handed major league pitcher who is only 24 years old?

Think Alex Escobar. Think Alex Ochoa

(I'm putting contract issues aside here; I have no idea what Willis' status is.}

I think you're forgetting Tom Seaver for Pat Zachry.

I would have to make that trade. I think that Dontrell is going to be one of the top super pitchers of baseball in a few more years.

To add to Plaw's list : Billy Beane. Remember what a superstar he was supposed to be? :rolleyes:

Milledge for Zito, no way.
For Willis, I take that shot.

What the Mets need to do right now is NOT panic. Let's face it, Zambrano was 1 and 4 anyway. It's not like you've lost a 4 and 1 pitcher. Yes, they have to address this problem, but at the same time there is no reason to make any panic trades that will cost them dearly down the road.


Don Cardi

You guys can have Kris and his looney wife back. I'll make the necessary phone calls. [/b][/quote]Ok, send Kris back to Shea Stadium and tell Anna to make a stop over at my house .


Don Cardi

I wasn't forgetting it.

That one was horrible too, but the Mets got four semi-decent years out of outfielder Steve Henderson (497 games, .287, 35, 217) four almost-decent years out Doug Flynn, a good-field, no-hit second baseman/shortstop (546 games, .237, 4, 141, but only 44 errors in 2788 chances, a .988 FA).

Zachry, barely 25 at the time of the deal (Seaver was 33) started off nicely with the Mets career, going 7-6 (.538) in 19 starts with a 3.76 E.R.A for a 64-98 (.395) team during the remainder of 1977.

But his career with the Mets we destined to be beset by injuries.

He went 10-6 (.625) with a 3.33 in only 21 starts in '78 for a team that won only 66 games (.407), and then spent most of '79 on the Disabled List, still managing to go 5-1 (.833) with a 3.56 in 7 starts for a team that finished 63-99 (.389).

After that, 1980-82, he was pretty much shot for the Mets, altho he never pitched really badly. He finally moved to the Dodger in 1983-84 where he had some success as a reliever.

So what's the net result here?

1043 more-or-less major league quality games at second base and in left field from Flynn and Henderson, and 69 more-or-less decent major league quality starts from Zachry.

Compare that to what the Mets got for Nolan Ryan, who arguably was a better pitcher than Seaver to begin with and who won 295 games, struck out more than 5000 batters, and pitched 7 no-hitters after the Mets traded him away for Jim Fregosi, from whom they got:

146 games in a season and change, and a .233 batting average in 464 ABs with all of 5 home runs and 43 RBIs.

Not even close....The Ryan-Fregosi trade was ten times worse than the Seaver deal.

Now, when you say "Aren't you forgetting it?", are you referring to Kazmir-Zambrano being worse than the Seaver deal or the Ryan deal?

I figure it this way:

The Ryan deal was by far the worst.

If they both had their careers end tomorrow, then yeah, the Seaver trade would be worse than the Kazmir trade because at this point in his career Kazmir basically hasn't done anything yet either.

But a short three years from now, when Zambrano and his lifetime Mets record of 10-14 with an E.R.A. of 4.42 is long gone, and Kazmir, even if he's still pitching for the terrible Devil Rays, has piled up 65 wins or so and is striking out a batter an inning or, better still, if Kazmir is still around 13 years from now and has maybe 200+ wins to his credit, there's no way that this trade won't be regarded as the second worst in Mets history.


StatMan

I agree the Ryan trade is the worst. I also think Kazmir is overrated. The trade was truly horrible, but the media is making Kazmir out to be Sandy Koufax. Let's slow down.

Yeah, I'd say that the NY media has been a little lavish in their praise, but compared to Zambrano.....

Fact is, if Kazmir manages to win another 40-50 games - pitched maybe another 3-4 years - and then hurt his arm and retired, this would still be one of the wrost trades in history.

Especially considering that right now, if you put Kazmir back on the Mets and got rid of Zambrano, the Mets would be a powerhouse.

Brutal loss last night, huh?

It would have been worse if they managed to get the go ahead run home from third in the 9th, and it was Wagner that threw the ball away to lose the game.

BTW, the Mets issued a statement that they will not trade David Wright or Lastings Miledge, to pick up a pitcher.

What a bummer. LoDuca had the perfect postition to make that play. What the hell was Heilman thinking there?

Delgado has just been unbelievable with his bat, especially in big game situations. Teams are going to have to start realizing that this is the guy that they NEED to get out.

I'm telling you, the way that this team makes comebacks when trailing, the way they celebrate in the dugout, and the whole overall attitude of the team really reminds me of 1986.

From my mouth to God's ears!


Don Cardi

Figures Kazmir pitched a gem tonight.
At least the Mets took care of business.

I hate to be the pessimist (OK, no I don't ), but I think the Mets could be in trouble if they don't make a deal for a decent #3 starter who can make 25 starts the rest of the season and pitch well enough for the Mets to go, say 14-11 in those 25 games.

Here's how I figure it:

Right now, the Mets are 23-13.

I figure tht Pedro and Glavine have 50 starts left between them, and I'm gonna give the Mets are generous 33-17 record in those 50 games, bringing them up to 56-30.

That leaves 76 games to divide up among the likes of Bannister, Gonzalez, Lima, and who knows who else.

If we give the Mets a generous 38-38 record in those 76 games - and I do think that's being generous - they will finish at 94-68 (.580).

So now the question is "Will that be good enough to make the playoffs?"

Well, I figure that including the Mets there are six teams in contention for the four spots.

Here's a chart which shows their current record and winning percentage, along with the record and winning percentage that they would need the rest of the way to finish at 95-67, which would beat the Mets projection of 94-68.

So in the above scenario, San Diego wins the West, St Louis the Central, and the Phils the East, leaving the Mets to battle Cincy and Houston for the wild card.


So only Houston and San Diego would have to improve on their present pace to finish with a better record than the Mets. The Phillies would have to keep winning at roughly the same rate that they have been.

If all of the teams involved keep winning at their present rates, it's the same story: The Mets lose the wild card to Cincy.

Now, if you want to say that you think Cincinnati is playing way over their heads, and they'll be lucky to finish at around .500, you could be right, BUT

The scenarios above don't allow for any other teams to unexpectedly get or stay hot and get into or remain in the race - teams like Colorado, Arizona, or Atlanta.

And the Mets could easily not go 38-38 in the games started by the group that presently comprises the bottom three in their rotation, and they could easily do worse than go 33-17 in the 50 games that I'm projecting Martinez & Glavine to start.

Big trouble in Flushing?

Could be. Right now the team I'd be watching (besides the Phillies) is Cincinnati.

I agree with you here Plaw. Of course a lot of things can happen, but barring any major injuries to any of those teams in the mix, there is a strong possibility that things can work out very closely to the scenrios that you've provided.

And I agree, the Mets really do need to go out and get another quality pitcher if they are serious about winning their division this season.

I believe that a healthy Bannister can be a real plus for that rotation, but not enough.

I think that they should try to make a deal for Barry Zito.

They just may have to give up one of these young prospects, but so be it if they are looking to win this thing this year, which is what they should be thinking about.


And come August/September, you and I both know that Atlanta will be right up in the mix for a playoff spot. They always find a way.


Don Cardi

I'm sticking with my opinion of before on a trade.

I would not trade Milledge for Zito.

I might have traded Milledge for Willis, but the way he's pitched lately, I don't know if I would anymore.

I still say the Mets don't need someone as good as a Zito or Willis.

Just someone good enough for the Mets to win 14 or 15 of the 25 games he would figure to start.

I took a quick look at everyone's roster and came up with a list of starters that I think could help the Mets.

Not to suggest that any or all of these guys are even available - but this type of pitcher is what they need, and shouldn't cost them a Milledge or Pelfrey.

Livian Hernandez
Orlando Hernandez
Joe Blanton
Dan Haren
Cory Lidle
Matt Morris
Joel Pineiro
Gil Meche
Sidney Ponson
Jason Marquis
Jeff Suppan
Kris Benson
Matt Clement
Glendon Rusch
Paul Byrd
Jake Westbrook
Ted Lilly
Gustavo Chacin
Chien-Ming Wang
Carl Pavano
Brian Moehler
Jae Seo
Kelvim Escobar
Odalis Perez

If he's healthy, Carl Pavano would be perfect.

He's had success in the NL, and if the Yankees could solidify their rotation without him, I bet they'd love to unload his contract.

Well I still won't trade Milledge for Zito either.

However I think that the Mets have enough to put some kind of an offer together for Zito without parting with Milledge.

Perhaps Chavez, and minor league Pitcher Jose Sanchez, who is 3 - 1 (+ 3 no decisions) this season with a 2.18 ERA and 22 K's in 41 innings pitched can be offered in some kind of a deal for Zito.


Don Cardi

That would be fantabulous for the Yanks.

Endy Chavez?

The 28-year old lifetime .259 hitter with almost no power?

Why would Oakland want him, a fourth outfielder at best and a non-major league player at worst?

I never heard of Jose Sanchez, which probably means that he's not a top prospect in the class of a Pelfrey, let's say, so when the trading deadline rolls around if oakland is not in contention and Zito is on the block, I think that oakland will get much better offers than those two guys.

I bet the Yankees - and I pick them only because I'm familiar with some of their prospects, but I'm sure there are other teams who could make better offers as well - would be willing to give up their top hitting prospect, AAA third baseman Eric Duncan, along with one of their top pitching prospects, Phillip Hughes (altho in all fairness, Duncan is having a disappointing season, and Hughes may still be nursing an injury from last year; I'm not sure).

Cliff Floyd for Chien-Ming Wang.