I hate to be the pessimist (OK, no I don't ), but I think the Mets could be in trouble if they don't make a deal for a decent #3 starter who can make 25 starts the rest of the season and pitch well enough for the Mets to go, say 14-11 in those 25 games.

Here's how I figure it:

Right now, the Mets are 23-13.

I figure tht Pedro and Glavine have 50 starts left between them, and I'm gonna give the Mets are generous 33-17 record in those 50 games, bringing them up to 56-30.

That leaves 76 games to divide up among the likes of Bannister, Gonzalez, Lima, and who knows who else.

If we give the Mets a generous 38-38 record in those 76 games - and I do think that's being generous - they will finish at 94-68 (.580).

So now the question is "Will that be good enough to make the playoffs?"

Well, I figure that including the Mets there are six teams in contention for the four spots.

Here's a chart which shows their current record and winning percentage, along with the record and winning percentage that they would need the rest of the way to finish at 95-67, which would beat the Mets projection of 94-68.

Code:
           Current  Win     Rest of  Win    Final    Win
           Record   Pct.    Season   Pct.   Record   Pct.
-
Mets        23-13   .638     71-55   .563    94-68   .580
St Louis    24-13   .649     71-54   .568    95-67   .586
Cincinnati  23-14   .622     72-53   .576    95-67   .586
Houston     21-16   .568     74-51   .592    95-67   .586
San Diego   21-16   .568     74-51   .592    95-67   .568
Phillies    21-15   .583     74-52   .587    95-67   .568
So in the above scenario, San Diego wins the West, St Louis the Central, and the Phils the East, leaving the Mets to battle Cincy and Houston for the wild card.


So only Houston and San Diego would have to improve on their present pace to finish with a better record than the Mets. The Phillies would have to keep winning at roughly the same rate that they have been.

If all of the teams involved keep winning at their present rates, it's the same story: The Mets lose the wild card to Cincy.

Now, if you want to say that you think Cincinnati is playing way over their heads, and they'll be lucky to finish at around .500, you could be right, BUT

The scenarios above don't allow for any other teams to unexpectedly get or stay hot and get into or remain in the race - teams like Colorado, Arizona, or Atlanta.

And the Mets could easily not go 38-38 in the games started by the group that presently comprises the bottom three in their rotation, and they could easily do worse than go 33-17 in the 50 games that I'm projecting Martinez & Glavine to start.

Big trouble in Flushing?

Could be. Right now the team I'd be watching (besides the Phillies) is Cincinnati.

"Difficult....not impossible"