Well Turnbull and Sicilian Babe, you make good arguments in favor of Fredo knowing it was going to be a hit all along.

It's another issue we'll probably have to agree to disagree on . Personally, I felt that the brotherly bond Fredo felt with Michael during the afternoon talk they had in Havana was the missing ingredient that Fredo was searching for. At that moment, Fredo was not just an "errand boy," but was Michael's confidant and, for once, a true partner.

We know from the boat house scene that Fredo wanted to earn "something on his own." He wanted to be seen as capable, smart, worldly wise. He wanted respect. If he were content to get respect from Roth and Ola, then I suppose abetting them with a hit on Michael would be a possibility.

But I always believed that most of all, Fredo wanted respect from Michael -- from the family at the very least. As I view it, two complex emotions of Fredo's would have found release if Michael were kidnapped, frightened, blackmailed, or harmed in another way short of murder. A part of Fredo would have relished Michael's vulnerability. In everyone's eyes, Michael would be brought down a notch: "Mr. Smart Guy" who never makes a wrong move is not so smart after all. Michael would experience what it feels like to be doubted -- a small taste of what Fredo feels. And Fredo wants to see Michael go through this, which would be impossible, of course, if Michael were killed.

I can envision Fredo's expectation that "respect" would evolve from this, as he sees himself stepping in to help, with the family finally recognizing his "talents" (in his mind).

But the situations that really convinced me that Fredo didn't know it was going to be a hit are cinematic ones:

(1) When Michael has Fredo killed at the end, we are meant to see this as the climactic unspeakable act and the prime illustration that Michael has become the worst evildoer of them all. For me, that realization would lose a lot of its dramatic impact if I believed that Fredo had planned to do the very same thing to Michael. I think the singular crime of killing one's own blood -- of even considering it -- is meant to be Michael's alone, the crowning tragedy of his criminal life.

(2) I've often written that the ending murders of GF2 have a common thread: all the victims are enemies of Michael who are now so weak and powerless that it's practically unnecessary to kill them. Roth is terminally ill and will die in prison; the FBI is, after all, ready and waiting to capture him at the Miami airport. Pentangeli is so terrified for his family after seeing his brother with Michael at the Senate hearing that he wouldn't dare double-cross a Corleone again. I've always believed that if these two men had been left to live out their natural lives, they would have been no threat to Michael.

I think the same thing has to apply to Fredo in order for his murder to fit thematically with the others. It's easier for me to believe that Fredo is no longer a threat if I believe him when he says he didn't know it was going to be a hit. Furthermore, I think that Fredo's (perceived) reconciliation with Michael at Mama's funeral deeply affected him. I got a strong impression that the separation from his brother truly pained him and that he had learned his lesson about trusting outsiders.

My two cents .