I think that Michael picked Vincent for two reasons. Partially because there really was no one else left to take over the Corleone buisness. But the major factor, IMO, for Michael handing the reigns over to Vincent was that he saw it as an opportunity to pry Vincent away from Mary.

Michael knew that Vincent thirsted to be both recognized as a Corleone by his uncle Michael and to eventually run the family. So Michael took advantage of Vincent's lust for power and recognition and used it to try and save his daughter Mary from Vincent and the danger that she would have been subject to had she remained with Vincent.

"Give up my daughter, it's the price you pay."

That, to me, was his real reason.


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