Olivant, I think that Moe made it clear that Fredo tended to his own needs first, even at the neglect of the gamblers in the casino. Also, if he knew his brother well, he would know that Michael was not the type for girls and parties. He would know that Michael was all business. To me, that speaks volumes.

Feel free to disagree. I'm one of those people who think that Fredo knew he was going to die, and I've had many a debate over it with some of the members here.